Showing posts with label prayer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prayer. Show all posts
05 February 2017
OPINIONS are like...
...noses, everybody has one.
Opinions are a great place for starting conversations.
What would you do...? What do you think about...? What color would you choose for...? If you had to do...? What would you say if...? How would you arrange...? Would you invite...?
These are the kinds of questions that get asked daily between friends, families, neighbors, co-workers, and total strangers. We both ask them and we are asked them.
And what do we do with the answers? Depends; they are, after all, only opinions. How do you value an opinion? Some come freely asked for or not. Some are given without a thought and some are only given grudgingly as if an opinion is too precious to share. Sometimes when you get your two cents worth, that is exactly what it is worth, with or without inflation.
And after all, the value of an opinion is only as valid as the source of that opinion and the level of expertise, knowledge, and trustworthiness of the person providing the opinion. It is up do us to decide whether to act on an opinion or not.
And why do we seek opinions in the first place. Is it to expand our list of options and possibilities, or discover insights for solving a problem? Are we looking for a fresh perspective with a new set of eyes or are we really looking for supporting confirmation for a decision already made?
When we seek answers, do we look for advice, direction and guidance or are we really just looking for opinions? Can we tell the difference?
When you kneel before the Lord in prayer, do you ask for his guidance? Do you value his answers as such, or do you treat his word as an opinion? Your actions and the results you will see will tell the story. It is just a matter of what you want when you are truthful with yourself.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.
13 July 2011
I'm Back
Hello everyone. I'm afraid I've been a little busy lately, and more than a little distracted, but I have returned to share thoughts and insights but probably just to rant and vent.
In fact I have been so upset and angered by this countries lack of discipline, integrity, and sensibility while being driven by an overwhelming self-centered selfishness and an overpowering level of stupidity that my emotions got caught up in it all and I couldn't quite bring myself to compose from a reasonable centered me so I gave it up for awhile.
Anyone that has been watching the news for awhile will have noticed the insanity that has laid claim to the world around us and often makes it tempting to retreat into hibernation or at the very least begin practicing the life of a hermit.
But alas I am too far entrenched in day to day living to commit that form of social suicide. And neither should you if you are experiencing the same level of frustration of that external world that tries so hard to dominate our lives. It is at this point that we must stand and say "nuts to you" and move on with what we do, and that is to live the good life and fight the good fight. To accept anything less is to deny our true inheritance.
So what was the trigger that brings me back around. A little news article on the radio this morning that reported President Obama praising someone other than himself, a republican no less that goes by the name of Mitch McConnell. You have got to know that you are way off base when no less than Obama and Harry Reid are calling your ideas a 'serious proposal'.
So what is this 'serious proposal'? How about letting the President raise the national debt ceiling without GOP support. That's right, the Senate minority leader is suggesting that Congress forgo its duties and responsibilities and hand the President the last keys to national destruction. I don't know why they would bother since all three branches seem to be working in a concerted effort to accomplish the same willful degradation of the remnants of a once upon a time fine upstanding and well respected country.
If you understand the debt crisis at all, or even just a little you are shaking in your boots right now along with the rest of us, but it is not the core of the problem. It is not even center stage of our drama or worse yet in the eyes of the people that matter most, the citizens of this nation. It is also just one symptom of a long list of symptoms plaguing our country right now and its future is hanging in the balance.
Someone from the White House said "never let a good crisis go to waste" but the scary truth that walks hand in hand with that is 'if you don't have a crisis now, make one'. I don't know how much of what is happening is fabrication and deliberate manipulation but I have seen enough to make me think that there is a definite plan being played out and there are some who think they will gain power by allowing events to unfold the way they have. Over the past several years (and decades and beyond) these types of events have led those in power to excuse themselves in taking action that has undermined our freedoms and our liberties. And for all intense and purposes it is happening again. Just as we now joke at the cliche of 'do it for the children' (although I still hear that one used time and again) we are not laughing at the effects it has had on our lives. Last time we were all too willing to do 'whatever it takes' to maintain our homeland security. This time we will do 'whatever it takes' to maintain our economic security. And all the while we have willingly done 'whatever it takes', we have done so without really realizing what was taken. The physical and economic security that was once in our hands as been placed in the hands of another, and now we have neither.
Where is that country that was so highly praised for freedom and liberty and was hailed as a land of opportunity and righteousness? Where is that people that stood proudly for one nation under God and valued it so highly that many would willingly give their lives in defending it? Where are the voices of reason in the tumultuous din of stupidity?
It is not all gone...yet. It is not all forgotten...yet. Fear not to add your voice to reason. If it sounds like stupid and feels like stupid, please don't be afraid to say so. When stupid looks itself in the mirror, truth is revealed and reason can stand. It is time to let laughter and ridicule drive stupidity back into the long forgotten shadows from whence it came.
History is replete with examples where stupidity runs rampant, but it only last for awhile. For those of us looking for the better way, having lived it and knowing what it is, there is still a light of hope that all is not lost. There is still a chance for the return of sanity. And although I am predicting that there is the potential for some serious hard times ahead, both economically, politically and socially, there is still an opportunity for much good to come from all this. That is what I continue to look for, hope for and pray for. I hope that you will be doing the same.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
In fact I have been so upset and angered by this countries lack of discipline, integrity, and sensibility while being driven by an overwhelming self-centered selfishness and an overpowering level of stupidity that my emotions got caught up in it all and I couldn't quite bring myself to compose from a reasonable centered me so I gave it up for awhile.
Anyone that has been watching the news for awhile will have noticed the insanity that has laid claim to the world around us and often makes it tempting to retreat into hibernation or at the very least begin practicing the life of a hermit.
But alas I am too far entrenched in day to day living to commit that form of social suicide. And neither should you if you are experiencing the same level of frustration of that external world that tries so hard to dominate our lives. It is at this point that we must stand and say "nuts to you" and move on with what we do, and that is to live the good life and fight the good fight. To accept anything less is to deny our true inheritance.
So what was the trigger that brings me back around. A little news article on the radio this morning that reported President Obama praising someone other than himself, a republican no less that goes by the name of Mitch McConnell. You have got to know that you are way off base when no less than Obama and Harry Reid are calling your ideas a 'serious proposal'.
So what is this 'serious proposal'? How about letting the President raise the national debt ceiling without GOP support. That's right, the Senate minority leader is suggesting that Congress forgo its duties and responsibilities and hand the President the last keys to national destruction. I don't know why they would bother since all three branches seem to be working in a concerted effort to accomplish the same willful degradation of the remnants of a once upon a time fine upstanding and well respected country.
If you understand the debt crisis at all, or even just a little you are shaking in your boots right now along with the rest of us, but it is not the core of the problem. It is not even center stage of our drama or worse yet in the eyes of the people that matter most, the citizens of this nation. It is also just one symptom of a long list of symptoms plaguing our country right now and its future is hanging in the balance.
Someone from the White House said "never let a good crisis go to waste" but the scary truth that walks hand in hand with that is 'if you don't have a crisis now, make one'. I don't know how much of what is happening is fabrication and deliberate manipulation but I have seen enough to make me think that there is a definite plan being played out and there are some who think they will gain power by allowing events to unfold the way they have. Over the past several years (and decades and beyond) these types of events have led those in power to excuse themselves in taking action that has undermined our freedoms and our liberties. And for all intense and purposes it is happening again. Just as we now joke at the cliche of 'do it for the children' (although I still hear that one used time and again) we are not laughing at the effects it has had on our lives. Last time we were all too willing to do 'whatever it takes' to maintain our homeland security. This time we will do 'whatever it takes' to maintain our economic security. And all the while we have willingly done 'whatever it takes', we have done so without really realizing what was taken. The physical and economic security that was once in our hands as been placed in the hands of another, and now we have neither.
Where is that country that was so highly praised for freedom and liberty and was hailed as a land of opportunity and righteousness? Where is that people that stood proudly for one nation under God and valued it so highly that many would willingly give their lives in defending it? Where are the voices of reason in the tumultuous din of stupidity?
It is not all gone...yet. It is not all forgotten...yet. Fear not to add your voice to reason. If it sounds like stupid and feels like stupid, please don't be afraid to say so. When stupid looks itself in the mirror, truth is revealed and reason can stand. It is time to let laughter and ridicule drive stupidity back into the long forgotten shadows from whence it came.
History is replete with examples where stupidity runs rampant, but it only last for awhile. For those of us looking for the better way, having lived it and knowing what it is, there is still a light of hope that all is not lost. There is still a chance for the return of sanity. And although I am predicting that there is the potential for some serious hard times ahead, both economically, politically and socially, there is still an opportunity for much good to come from all this. That is what I continue to look for, hope for and pray for. I hope that you will be doing the same.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
30 September 2009
Out of commission from a little bug
I have been away for a little bit, sorry about that. I think I came down with the Farr West Nile Malaria Hepatitis Swine Flu C. O.K. maybe not, but I have had a whopper of a head cold that has lasted two plus weeks.
I don’t exactly enjoy getting sick. I don’t imagine there are many that do. Sometimes it is o.k. because it is your body’s way of telling you to take it easy, slow down, and catch your breath. You take a day or two off, relax and you are ready to get after it again.
This was not one of those sick days. This was one of those shut down days. There is no energy, there is no focus, there is no brain power, and there is no joy. When these kind hit, I literally shut down. I don’t bother to do much more than watch T.V. and sleep and occasionally eat. That’s it. I might want to do more but I just can’t. Reading is reduced to looking at the pictures in a magazine with the occasional effort to read the caption but seldom the text that goes with it. How can I? I have tried in the past to read a book only to notice that I am still on the same page after 35 minutes and still don’t know what I have just read.
So rest I needed, and rest I did…for three days at least. Then I started to get a little antsy even though there was never enough energy in me to do anything about it.
If anyone needed an incentive to get better just turn on daytime T.V., if that doesn’t do the trick, then your brain is still in a mushy like state and you should seek further professional help.
So I did. I went to the local health store after the 6th or 7th day to see if they could help figure out a solution, besides anything over three days from work requires a note from your doctor (how does that help me feel like a grown up?). Well, with lucky timing and a long weekend I was able to forgo the doctor’s note but I went to see him anyway because I just wasn’t kicking this thing.
The visit was its typical short quick shot visit. He asked me if my symptoms included coughing, headache, nausea, lack of energy, etc., etc., etc., I said yes and he said you have what everyone has, it is viral so there isn’t much you can do more than what you are doing. He gave me a Z-pack to cover possible bacterial infection, told me to get some Mucinex DM, don’t overdo and continue to get lots of rest. That was it, three minutes tops. I forgot to ask him about my very red and irritated eye so went back in to ask him about it after getting the prescription filled. He said he had noticed it but didn’t think it was too bad and that it should clear up on its own but if it didn’t then come back for more fun and excitement.
I still wonder why I bother with it sometimes except that with all the other things going around I guess I needed the assurance that it wasn’t one of those. Also, if the only way to get rid of it is to get official drugs then you have to go through official channels. I think there might be easier and much less expensive ways to treat yourself for a severe head cold, but then what would we have to complain about. Besides, we only see and think about the tiny co-payment for our treatment and drugs and seldom think about the actual charges for services rendered. It is easier to swallow the medicine in small doses.
So after the visit to the pharmacy for the Z-pack and unwilling to pay their price for the Mucinex DM I headed to the local Wal-Mart to find the Mucinex cheaper and restock up on the 12 hour Sudafed. The only reason I will submit to buying Mucinex is it is the only cough suppressant/expectorant that is in a 12 hour time release formula. Why 12 hour time release? Like the 12 hour Sudafed, it is the only way for me to take medicine before going to bed and have it last through the night. This is worth a lot to a person that is looking for an uninterrupted night of rest without having to wake up every four hours to take another dose of whatever and then try to return to sleep afterward.
By the way, I would buy the generic brands whenever possible and for the Sudafed I can find substitutes but not for the Mucinex. I can get the same medicine in cough syrup but not with the extended time release. The generics are cheaper, sometimes much cheaper and I have had pretty good luck with them so far.
Now comes the sad part. For many years now, you have been unable to buy Sudafed or anything containing Sudafed on your own. You now have to get a card from the shelf and take it up to the pharmacist and request the medicine. They then take your id, and record all your personal information into a government run data base that makes sure you don’t buy too much because that would indicate that you are a drug fiend and are probably running a meth lab. By the way, you are allowed to buy up to 9 grams or Sudafed a month and since I was purchasing a whopping 120 milligrams I was safe to buy my package.
I was feeling a little bit better at the time and thankfully there was no line in the middle of the day so the purchase was not too hard to make, but I have gone in looking for my medication when my head was plugged solid, my nose was running nonstop, and I was coughing up a lung only to find that I still had to pick up the little card and then go to the back of the line and stand for 30 minutes waiting to again hand over my id and go through the background check to see if I was allowed to buy my lousy little pills.
It is interesting to note a few things such as the fact that the original 4 hour pill took two tablets and was 30 milligrams per dose. A couple of years ago I found myself overseas and coming down with this miserable cold but without any of the medicine I usual bring along for just such an occasion. I went to the local pharmacy at the end of the day after our meetings got out in search of some Drixoral (another 12 hour cold medicine that is no longer available) but could not find any. The druggist asked what my symptoms were and offered Sudafed. Limited choice, foreign language and much in need I accepted this as the only remedy available this trip. Besides I was desperate and if I couldn’t find a 12 hour solution to see me through the night then this would be the next best thing.
I took the medicine and it did do the trick. As my head cleared I read the ingredients and noticed that this regular strength Sudafed was 60 milligrams per dose. No wonder it worked. I even shared it with a couple of co-workers that had got some of the same cold. It worked so well for them that they went back for a couple of boxes to take home with them. I kind of wish I had also. Here was grown up medicine, sold by a grown up to a grown up with grown up intentions of how to use it in mind. No hand holding, no back ground checks, no mother may I’s, just a way to treat the same old cold in the same old way with the same old medicine without any fuss or holler. What a novel approach.
The other thing I found interesting about all this is that once the real Sudafed went behind the counter a pseudo Sudafed appeared to take its place on the shelves. It only takes one tablet instead of two and it seems to work fine for the milder cases I occasionally get. But when the really heavy stuff hits then I want the real stuff and now that I know that there is another size regular dose I am not nearly as afraid of overdosing when I really need the help to get over the hump. I don’t take two regular 12 hour together, but I have taken more normal 12 hour dose and then when I have needed it I have taken a pseudo Sudafed as a booster.
I now feel I need to add the disclaimer that I am not advising or recommending this for anyone or anybody, and there is the fact that I am not a doctor nor have I pretended to be one for many, many years now. This is just what I did while practicing to be an adult. It seemed to work for me.
Anyway, after the first week of playing with this, I decided to go back to work. If you are only going to be miserable at home you might as well be miserable at work. I still wasn’t functioning at my best but that is o.k. when you are at work. Just kidding, but it does help with recovery if you can at least attempt to be productive in a laid back if not totally unenthusiastic way.
I did try to be responsible and stayed clear of others, covering my mouth when coughing, washing down my workstation and phone, and washing my hands frequently with Germ-X. No one else at work caught this that I know of so I must have been doing something right.
I did talk to a friend though that said he has had his version of this head cold for the past month. I really didn’t need to hear that. Besides, I think I have turned the corner now. I am feeling much better, can think enough to type a few words and as long as I take it somewhat easy and make sure to get enough rest I am sure I am on the mend. There are two signs that I am over the worst, my appetite for junk food comes back strong, and I have a desire to go out for a bike ride. Both are there. I haven’t gone on the bike ride yet because I don’t want to overdo but I sure have hit the junk food again. I did feel like a bike ride early last Saturday but I didn’t quite make it out. Just as well seeing how after the thought hit me I laid down for a second and awoke two and half hours later. Did I mention how my energy levels were just gone during this whole thing?
As hard as this has been and as long as this has dragged out I am still very grateful that this is all that it was and this is all the longer it has taken. I have had this before many times, and will surely have it again but through it all I know that it will pass and I will mend. I might get worn down from it and I might be disappointed and frustrated from the lack of ability to function as normal but it will pass and I will return.
There are others that I know that are facing a much longer recovery path. I have some very special friends that have had to face illnesses that do not go away on their own, and are not easily cured with a prescription or two. The illnesses that they are living with do not go away in one week or two or sometimes even in a month or year and sometimes longer than that. Some have been dealing with their illness for so long that they can’t remember any more what it was like to be normal. My hat goes off to each and every one of you. You are the ones that make my little periodic bouts with colds become trivial and all my complaining just a whining refrain. You are the ones that teach me what it could really be like.
And you also teach me how to handle it with the master’s touch. It isn’t always easy but somehow you manage to carry on knowing that there are good days and bad, high points and low points, but through it all you carry on. You are the ones that can somehow manage to receive and extend the love all around you in spite of all that you must face. That is the strength and courage that will carry you through anything life throws at you and you will not back down. You stand tall with those around you and carry on.
I have seen it in many of my friends through the years and always hope that I can be counted as friend when they are in need. They have been all ages from toddler to wobbler and each has provided me with lessons I needed to learn. I have gained much by my association with them and I hope that they have also found favor in knowing me. Some have kept diaries of their travails on blogs and I have wanted to site them often but hesitate without their consent.
But I know that they are not the only ones, so I open this up to any and all that want to share your stories with us. Just add comments and web links to this article and let others know what you have faced and how you have coped. This will help inspire us all. And it will introduce a new world of friends, ones that you can share your story with and ones that will in turn share their prayers with you. May your righteous desires be fulfilled as God looks after your needs as I know he has looked after mine.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
I don’t exactly enjoy getting sick. I don’t imagine there are many that do. Sometimes it is o.k. because it is your body’s way of telling you to take it easy, slow down, and catch your breath. You take a day or two off, relax and you are ready to get after it again.
This was not one of those sick days. This was one of those shut down days. There is no energy, there is no focus, there is no brain power, and there is no joy. When these kind hit, I literally shut down. I don’t bother to do much more than watch T.V. and sleep and occasionally eat. That’s it. I might want to do more but I just can’t. Reading is reduced to looking at the pictures in a magazine with the occasional effort to read the caption but seldom the text that goes with it. How can I? I have tried in the past to read a book only to notice that I am still on the same page after 35 minutes and still don’t know what I have just read.
So rest I needed, and rest I did…for three days at least. Then I started to get a little antsy even though there was never enough energy in me to do anything about it.
If anyone needed an incentive to get better just turn on daytime T.V., if that doesn’t do the trick, then your brain is still in a mushy like state and you should seek further professional help.
So I did. I went to the local health store after the 6th or 7th day to see if they could help figure out a solution, besides anything over three days from work requires a note from your doctor (how does that help me feel like a grown up?). Well, with lucky timing and a long weekend I was able to forgo the doctor’s note but I went to see him anyway because I just wasn’t kicking this thing.
The visit was its typical short quick shot visit. He asked me if my symptoms included coughing, headache, nausea, lack of energy, etc., etc., etc., I said yes and he said you have what everyone has, it is viral so there isn’t much you can do more than what you are doing. He gave me a Z-pack to cover possible bacterial infection, told me to get some Mucinex DM, don’t overdo and continue to get lots of rest. That was it, three minutes tops. I forgot to ask him about my very red and irritated eye so went back in to ask him about it after getting the prescription filled. He said he had noticed it but didn’t think it was too bad and that it should clear up on its own but if it didn’t then come back for more fun and excitement.
I still wonder why I bother with it sometimes except that with all the other things going around I guess I needed the assurance that it wasn’t one of those. Also, if the only way to get rid of it is to get official drugs then you have to go through official channels. I think there might be easier and much less expensive ways to treat yourself for a severe head cold, but then what would we have to complain about. Besides, we only see and think about the tiny co-payment for our treatment and drugs and seldom think about the actual charges for services rendered. It is easier to swallow the medicine in small doses.
So after the visit to the pharmacy for the Z-pack and unwilling to pay their price for the Mucinex DM I headed to the local Wal-Mart to find the Mucinex cheaper and restock up on the 12 hour Sudafed. The only reason I will submit to buying Mucinex is it is the only cough suppressant/expectorant that is in a 12 hour time release formula. Why 12 hour time release? Like the 12 hour Sudafed, it is the only way for me to take medicine before going to bed and have it last through the night. This is worth a lot to a person that is looking for an uninterrupted night of rest without having to wake up every four hours to take another dose of whatever and then try to return to sleep afterward.
By the way, I would buy the generic brands whenever possible and for the Sudafed I can find substitutes but not for the Mucinex. I can get the same medicine in cough syrup but not with the extended time release. The generics are cheaper, sometimes much cheaper and I have had pretty good luck with them so far.
Now comes the sad part. For many years now, you have been unable to buy Sudafed or anything containing Sudafed on your own. You now have to get a card from the shelf and take it up to the pharmacist and request the medicine. They then take your id, and record all your personal information into a government run data base that makes sure you don’t buy too much because that would indicate that you are a drug fiend and are probably running a meth lab. By the way, you are allowed to buy up to 9 grams or Sudafed a month and since I was purchasing a whopping 120 milligrams I was safe to buy my package.
I was feeling a little bit better at the time and thankfully there was no line in the middle of the day so the purchase was not too hard to make, but I have gone in looking for my medication when my head was plugged solid, my nose was running nonstop, and I was coughing up a lung only to find that I still had to pick up the little card and then go to the back of the line and stand for 30 minutes waiting to again hand over my id and go through the background check to see if I was allowed to buy my lousy little pills.
It is interesting to note a few things such as the fact that the original 4 hour pill took two tablets and was 30 milligrams per dose. A couple of years ago I found myself overseas and coming down with this miserable cold but without any of the medicine I usual bring along for just such an occasion. I went to the local pharmacy at the end of the day after our meetings got out in search of some Drixoral (another 12 hour cold medicine that is no longer available) but could not find any. The druggist asked what my symptoms were and offered Sudafed. Limited choice, foreign language and much in need I accepted this as the only remedy available this trip. Besides I was desperate and if I couldn’t find a 12 hour solution to see me through the night then this would be the next best thing.
I took the medicine and it did do the trick. As my head cleared I read the ingredients and noticed that this regular strength Sudafed was 60 milligrams per dose. No wonder it worked. I even shared it with a couple of co-workers that had got some of the same cold. It worked so well for them that they went back for a couple of boxes to take home with them. I kind of wish I had also. Here was grown up medicine, sold by a grown up to a grown up with grown up intentions of how to use it in mind. No hand holding, no back ground checks, no mother may I’s, just a way to treat the same old cold in the same old way with the same old medicine without any fuss or holler. What a novel approach.
The other thing I found interesting about all this is that once the real Sudafed went behind the counter a pseudo Sudafed appeared to take its place on the shelves. It only takes one tablet instead of two and it seems to work fine for the milder cases I occasionally get. But when the really heavy stuff hits then I want the real stuff and now that I know that there is another size regular dose I am not nearly as afraid of overdosing when I really need the help to get over the hump. I don’t take two regular 12 hour together, but I have taken more normal 12 hour dose and then when I have needed it I have taken a pseudo Sudafed as a booster.
I now feel I need to add the disclaimer that I am not advising or recommending this for anyone or anybody, and there is the fact that I am not a doctor nor have I pretended to be one for many, many years now. This is just what I did while practicing to be an adult. It seemed to work for me.
Anyway, after the first week of playing with this, I decided to go back to work. If you are only going to be miserable at home you might as well be miserable at work. I still wasn’t functioning at my best but that is o.k. when you are at work. Just kidding, but it does help with recovery if you can at least attempt to be productive in a laid back if not totally unenthusiastic way.
I did try to be responsible and stayed clear of others, covering my mouth when coughing, washing down my workstation and phone, and washing my hands frequently with Germ-X. No one else at work caught this that I know of so I must have been doing something right.
I did talk to a friend though that said he has had his version of this head cold for the past month. I really didn’t need to hear that. Besides, I think I have turned the corner now. I am feeling much better, can think enough to type a few words and as long as I take it somewhat easy and make sure to get enough rest I am sure I am on the mend. There are two signs that I am over the worst, my appetite for junk food comes back strong, and I have a desire to go out for a bike ride. Both are there. I haven’t gone on the bike ride yet because I don’t want to overdo but I sure have hit the junk food again. I did feel like a bike ride early last Saturday but I didn’t quite make it out. Just as well seeing how after the thought hit me I laid down for a second and awoke two and half hours later. Did I mention how my energy levels were just gone during this whole thing?
As hard as this has been and as long as this has dragged out I am still very grateful that this is all that it was and this is all the longer it has taken. I have had this before many times, and will surely have it again but through it all I know that it will pass and I will mend. I might get worn down from it and I might be disappointed and frustrated from the lack of ability to function as normal but it will pass and I will return.
There are others that I know that are facing a much longer recovery path. I have some very special friends that have had to face illnesses that do not go away on their own, and are not easily cured with a prescription or two. The illnesses that they are living with do not go away in one week or two or sometimes even in a month or year and sometimes longer than that. Some have been dealing with their illness for so long that they can’t remember any more what it was like to be normal. My hat goes off to each and every one of you. You are the ones that make my little periodic bouts with colds become trivial and all my complaining just a whining refrain. You are the ones that teach me what it could really be like.
And you also teach me how to handle it with the master’s touch. It isn’t always easy but somehow you manage to carry on knowing that there are good days and bad, high points and low points, but through it all you carry on. You are the ones that can somehow manage to receive and extend the love all around you in spite of all that you must face. That is the strength and courage that will carry you through anything life throws at you and you will not back down. You stand tall with those around you and carry on.
I have seen it in many of my friends through the years and always hope that I can be counted as friend when they are in need. They have been all ages from toddler to wobbler and each has provided me with lessons I needed to learn. I have gained much by my association with them and I hope that they have also found favor in knowing me. Some have kept diaries of their travails on blogs and I have wanted to site them often but hesitate without their consent.
But I know that they are not the only ones, so I open this up to any and all that want to share your stories with us. Just add comments and web links to this article and let others know what you have faced and how you have coped. This will help inspire us all. And it will introduce a new world of friends, ones that you can share your story with and ones that will in turn share their prayers with you. May your righteous desires be fulfilled as God looks after your needs as I know he has looked after mine.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
22 February 2009
Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 3.
In fact, that is just what happened. Everyone started leveraging everything and because everyone was doing it, it seemed to make it all right. We piled on debt to pay for everything to be able to live for today and it was all o.k. because once all our cards and accounts reached their max we could just consolidate everything into one big newly refinanced loan by tapping into the freshly created inflation generated equity that the investment in our homes had just produced out of thin air. Pretty neat eh?
This worked so well that we got used to it and came to expect that it would work every time. Jobs were consist enough that we could count on the income to always be there and so we went ahead and obligated ourselves to make consistent payments that matched those consistent paychecks. Most Americans had it worked out so well that everything that came in was exactly the same as everything that went out. It was a smooth running machine, until one day when the price of gas went up. Now instead of it costing $20 to fill the tank it cost $40 and you don’t have the other $20 in your pocket. Something has to go but everything you have is already spoken for. Witness the pin that popped the bubble.
So stupid people make stupid decisions, this is nothing new. It has happened before and it will happen again. The key point to take from all this is that we don’t make the innocent pay the price for the ignorance of others. That is where the second comparison has come into play. The knee-jerk reactions that followed the bad choices of others as happened following the first great depression should not be replayed this time around. Obama and Congress are launching on the biggest mistake in this nation’s history and it is not without forewarning. The “stimulus package” will seal the fate of this nation as a full blown socialist state with little hope of return. There are far too many critics that have been far too quiet concerning this matter. It is not because they have not spoken in the past or in the present, but the current mass media markets have decided not to listen. Make no mistake about it, voices are being suppressed. The America of our forefathers is in jeopardy of being no more, and for the sake of being politically correct we will squelch the voices of wisdom. We will label them crackpots or worse.
There are of course differences between now and then. FDR waited several years and I imagine went through quite a bit of debate before implementing the new deal. Obama and his congress have rushed the current new deal through in a matter of days. This surprises me especially when you compare it to the regular congressional budget that usually is past after the new fiscal year has begun, and sometimes months after. Why this rush? Banks closings are up but not anywhere near the level of the Great Depression. Unemployment is up, but also not anywhere near what it was in the Great Depression. 7.5% vs. 25+% do the math.
The economy was a hot button item during the election timeframe and usually is during campaigning. The Democrats and their media talked up how bad things were when in reality things were not really bad at all. This is not to say that there were not some bad areas and some people experiencing bad times. That has always been the case in our nation’s history. There are boom and bust cycles going on all over all the time, nothing new. But like so many political campaigns, you can’t convince others to vote for you unless you can convince them that the other guys are doing worse than you would. Standard fare, I mean I many times have you heard that the last few years under the Bush administration were the worst years ever in recorded history. Kind of sounds like the same thing Bush said about Clinton and Clinton said about the Bush before that. My question is why do we continue to believe it when the truth says otherwise, or at least is somewhere in between?
So the Democrats have convinced us all that the economy was falling apart and only they could make it work again. They said it so long that we and they started to believe it. Is this the case of a self fulfilling prophecy? Pretty soon people started making decisions based on this doomsday prophecy, confidence in the system was shaken and those decisions triggered other decisions which started us down the path of an economic slowdown.
If we can raise this slowdown to the level of a crisis, then we can implement all kinds of legislation without any questions or obstacles. What better way can you think of to get your policies in place before anyone has time to think twice? It has to be done now because it will be too late tomorrow, and beside we have to do something…don’t we? The knee-jerk caught a lame duck president with a first financial bailout and followed on to the new president with the stimulus package.
This isn’t the first real estate driven crisis, remember the 1980’s and the savings and loan problem. Remember how it wasn’t solved with a massive spending bill but a revamp of the banking industry that combined savings and loan institutions with bank bringing them under the FDIC insurance for depositor safety and then orderly liquidated bad real estate deals through the use of open market pricing? Why are we subsidizing the bad institutions this time and trying to keep them in business when we should be helping them liquidate in an orderly fashion? The FDIC could play the role of insurer as it is chartered to do and protect depositors money up to the agreed upon amounts, sell off the assets of the defunct business at market prices to willing participants and we could all get on with the business at hand.
Instead we are putting the patient on life-support, one that only prolongs the misery and the pain. Japan went through a period of denial with its real estate boom of the 80’s and they are still paying the price. Instead of clearing the books they finagled them through adjustable accounting. We are doing the same. Where oh where has wisdom gone in our elected officials?
And where has our wisdom gone? This article has taken a lot of thought and effort to write. As I have watched the proceedings take place in the news and the actions taken by our elected elite, I am both in awe and wonder. I am totally dumbfounded by what is taking place. It just doesn’t seem possible that this is actually happening in real life, and maybe when I get up tomorrow I can find that I just read it wrong. That was several days ago and I am still seeing the same thing, it is really happening. I can’t stop it, I am not an insider so I can’t profit from it, and I shudder to think what it will take to reverse it now that it is in place.
When reason fails with man, and the world begins to tumble, I guess the only thing left is the thing we have had all along. Turn to God. Pray and know that God lives. As the world tosses and turns and changes with the winds and tides; know that God is the same yesterday, today, and forever. Therein lays our strength, our guide, and our salvation. Ours need not be a fleeting moment in time if we are willing to look to our Father in Heaven with eternal eyes. My prayer for us all, leaders and citizen alike is that we have the wisdom and the courage to make the right choices and to stand for what is right.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
Click here if you want to see the new Great Depression Part 1 or to go to Part 2.
This worked so well that we got used to it and came to expect that it would work every time. Jobs were consist enough that we could count on the income to always be there and so we went ahead and obligated ourselves to make consistent payments that matched those consistent paychecks. Most Americans had it worked out so well that everything that came in was exactly the same as everything that went out. It was a smooth running machine, until one day when the price of gas went up. Now instead of it costing $20 to fill the tank it cost $40 and you don’t have the other $20 in your pocket. Something has to go but everything you have is already spoken for. Witness the pin that popped the bubble.
So stupid people make stupid decisions, this is nothing new. It has happened before and it will happen again. The key point to take from all this is that we don’t make the innocent pay the price for the ignorance of others. That is where the second comparison has come into play. The knee-jerk reactions that followed the bad choices of others as happened following the first great depression should not be replayed this time around. Obama and Congress are launching on the biggest mistake in this nation’s history and it is not without forewarning. The “stimulus package” will seal the fate of this nation as a full blown socialist state with little hope of return. There are far too many critics that have been far too quiet concerning this matter. It is not because they have not spoken in the past or in the present, but the current mass media markets have decided not to listen. Make no mistake about it, voices are being suppressed. The America of our forefathers is in jeopardy of being no more, and for the sake of being politically correct we will squelch the voices of wisdom. We will label them crackpots or worse.
There are of course differences between now and then. FDR waited several years and I imagine went through quite a bit of debate before implementing the new deal. Obama and his congress have rushed the current new deal through in a matter of days. This surprises me especially when you compare it to the regular congressional budget that usually is past after the new fiscal year has begun, and sometimes months after. Why this rush? Banks closings are up but not anywhere near the level of the Great Depression. Unemployment is up, but also not anywhere near what it was in the Great Depression. 7.5% vs. 25+% do the math.
The economy was a hot button item during the election timeframe and usually is during campaigning. The Democrats and their media talked up how bad things were when in reality things were not really bad at all. This is not to say that there were not some bad areas and some people experiencing bad times. That has always been the case in our nation’s history. There are boom and bust cycles going on all over all the time, nothing new. But like so many political campaigns, you can’t convince others to vote for you unless you can convince them that the other guys are doing worse than you would. Standard fare, I mean I many times have you heard that the last few years under the Bush administration were the worst years ever in recorded history. Kind of sounds like the same thing Bush said about Clinton and Clinton said about the Bush before that. My question is why do we continue to believe it when the truth says otherwise, or at least is somewhere in between?
So the Democrats have convinced us all that the economy was falling apart and only they could make it work again. They said it so long that we and they started to believe it. Is this the case of a self fulfilling prophecy? Pretty soon people started making decisions based on this doomsday prophecy, confidence in the system was shaken and those decisions triggered other decisions which started us down the path of an economic slowdown.
If we can raise this slowdown to the level of a crisis, then we can implement all kinds of legislation without any questions or obstacles. What better way can you think of to get your policies in place before anyone has time to think twice? It has to be done now because it will be too late tomorrow, and beside we have to do something…don’t we? The knee-jerk caught a lame duck president with a first financial bailout and followed on to the new president with the stimulus package.
This isn’t the first real estate driven crisis, remember the 1980’s and the savings and loan problem. Remember how it wasn’t solved with a massive spending bill but a revamp of the banking industry that combined savings and loan institutions with bank bringing them under the FDIC insurance for depositor safety and then orderly liquidated bad real estate deals through the use of open market pricing? Why are we subsidizing the bad institutions this time and trying to keep them in business when we should be helping them liquidate in an orderly fashion? The FDIC could play the role of insurer as it is chartered to do and protect depositors money up to the agreed upon amounts, sell off the assets of the defunct business at market prices to willing participants and we could all get on with the business at hand.
Instead we are putting the patient on life-support, one that only prolongs the misery and the pain. Japan went through a period of denial with its real estate boom of the 80’s and they are still paying the price. Instead of clearing the books they finagled them through adjustable accounting. We are doing the same. Where oh where has wisdom gone in our elected officials?
And where has our wisdom gone? This article has taken a lot of thought and effort to write. As I have watched the proceedings take place in the news and the actions taken by our elected elite, I am both in awe and wonder. I am totally dumbfounded by what is taking place. It just doesn’t seem possible that this is actually happening in real life, and maybe when I get up tomorrow I can find that I just read it wrong. That was several days ago and I am still seeing the same thing, it is really happening. I can’t stop it, I am not an insider so I can’t profit from it, and I shudder to think what it will take to reverse it now that it is in place.
When reason fails with man, and the world begins to tumble, I guess the only thing left is the thing we have had all along. Turn to God. Pray and know that God lives. As the world tosses and turns and changes with the winds and tides; know that God is the same yesterday, today, and forever. Therein lays our strength, our guide, and our salvation. Ours need not be a fleeting moment in time if we are willing to look to our Father in Heaven with eternal eyes. My prayer for us all, leaders and citizen alike is that we have the wisdom and the courage to make the right choices and to stand for what is right.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
Click here if you want to see the new Great Depression Part 1 or to go to Part 2.
Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 2.
So what did you want the government to do, nothing? Yes, as a matter of fact, that would have been the best course of action for it to take. If we really believe in free markets (a freedom principle) and the economics of supply and demand, then the role of government is too help protect consumers from fraud (a criminal act with criminal intent) and monopolies (manipulation of markets to gain control and prevent freedom within the market), and such acts for fairness sake, but not to dictate which businesses we can have and how we should run them or who we can and can’t deal with. It is when governments try to intervene on the belief that they can best determine how to ‘create’ fairness that we all lose.
This is called social engineering and it has never worked well if it has ever worked at all. In any instance I can think of, it comes down to taking away from one to give to another. It is providing subsidies for a favored group at the expense of a less favored group, and it is always the party in power that is making the decision of which group to favor. This is not equality this is theft, and it is the worst injustice of all. Two wrongs do not make a right. Just because your group or cause may be winning the ‘equality equation’ one minute is no guarantee that it will the next. Welcome to the roots of Socialism and Communism. Ayn Rand, F.A. Hayek, George Orwell, and many others have tried to warn and persuade against these evils.
So if the government would have done nothing, the market would have worked itself out and life would have gotten back to normal a lot sooner than it did. Remember the words about supply and demand. Basic economics says that when a seller and a buyer have the same price in mind, a transaction takes place. If there is a difference in the desired price each is willing to accept then no transaction takes place…that is until they come to an agreed price. Of course, if a seller’s price is less than what a buyer is willing to pay or if a buyer’s price is higher than the seller is expecting a transaction will also occur with a happier than expected outcome for one of the participants.
If prices rise too far, buyers quit buying or buy less than they normally would until either their situation changes or prices fall back to a level they are willing to accept. This is where the true power of the market and more importantly the people’s power lie…as consumers. If a consumer decides that the price is too high she can just turn away, and with the markets that America has developed, they can look elsewhere. We as consumers have the power of alternatives and options, another great benefit from having free markets…choice.
So what happens in a bankruptcy? The prices fall to clear inventory. How far the prices fall is determined by the market and the need to move that inventory to meet the demands of the defunct business. Again the market place determines a fair price by matching the seller with the buyer at a price both can live with. In the case of stocks, the price will fall to some level where a buyer will believe that he can find value in the purchase. Look at the recent Circuit City bankruptcy as an example. They have invited in the liquidators who will sale all remaining inventory (and then some) at liquidation prices. First they will move all prices back up to full retail and then start marking off a certain percentage to make the sale. A few weeks pass and they will raise the percentage off to sell a little more. A few more weeks and a few more percentages, until most all the inventory has been sold off by having a willing buyer and a willing seller at an agreed upon price. The good stuff will go first at the highest prices and the lesser stuff will go as their fair price is eventually reached. It is natural, and it is how real markets work.
So what can we compare this to today? There are two common elements that exist today that were common back then. First is an overinflated market full of speculators and hype that has easy access to excessive credit for an overleveraged play. If anybody could not see the comparison to Real Estate investing then you shouldn’t be allowed to vote because you just aren’t paying enough attention to the world around you.
Real estate has been a huge hit sense someone went to the trouble of trying to convince everyone that they should have some. A chicken in every pot, a car in every garage, and home ownership, the American dream, who could ask for anything more?
Real estate promised equity and wealth, and a place of status. It was incentivized and subsidized by tax breaks and government programs. Best of all you could finance 80%, then 90%, then 100% with no money down. They even had loans that would give you 120% of the homes “value”. At the pinnacle of it all you could even find loans where you never had to pay back the principle, just pay the interest and everything would be fine. After all the prices were going up and up and up and they aren’t building any more land you know.
Everywhere you turned there was a class or a course on how to buy real estate with no money down, or how to flip a home, or buy a foreclosure, or become a landlord. Real estate gurus came and went as fast as you could change the channel on the late night infomercials. All you had to do was take a look around and you could see someone that had made a mint in real estate, why even the Governor of California made his millions in real estate so why shouldn’t we.
And even if it wasn’t to make us rich by becoming the next Donald Trump we could at least be better off. We have always been told that owning your own home was a good and smart investment. Look at the equity your building. You have ownership of something and they can’t take that away from you. Why pay someone else when you can be paying yourself? (That is good advice when applied in a practical matter).
So the equity you built is caused by inflation and not by an increase in value, and owning your own home allows you to put holes in the walls where you want to and repaint any color you so choose without checking with a landlord first, and owning your own home means you can do with it whatever you want to as long as what you want to do is consistent with existing zoning laws and property covenants and building permits, and owning your home means no one can take that away from you unless you have a mortgage and miss a payment or run up against hard times and can’t pay your property taxes, but hey it is your home.
In the past, you could only borrow an amount that would have your monthly payment no greater than 25% of one wage earners income and that was probably take home pay at that. Recently it seems that you could qualify to finance an amount that would take 80% of your take home pay. (The remaining amount could pay for cable and you could feed yourself with food stamps).
Click here to see the new Great Depression Part 3 or here to go to Part 1.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
This is called social engineering and it has never worked well if it has ever worked at all. In any instance I can think of, it comes down to taking away from one to give to another. It is providing subsidies for a favored group at the expense of a less favored group, and it is always the party in power that is making the decision of which group to favor. This is not equality this is theft, and it is the worst injustice of all. Two wrongs do not make a right. Just because your group or cause may be winning the ‘equality equation’ one minute is no guarantee that it will the next. Welcome to the roots of Socialism and Communism. Ayn Rand, F.A. Hayek, George Orwell, and many others have tried to warn and persuade against these evils.
So if the government would have done nothing, the market would have worked itself out and life would have gotten back to normal a lot sooner than it did. Remember the words about supply and demand. Basic economics says that when a seller and a buyer have the same price in mind, a transaction takes place. If there is a difference in the desired price each is willing to accept then no transaction takes place…that is until they come to an agreed price. Of course, if a seller’s price is less than what a buyer is willing to pay or if a buyer’s price is higher than the seller is expecting a transaction will also occur with a happier than expected outcome for one of the participants.
If prices rise too far, buyers quit buying or buy less than they normally would until either their situation changes or prices fall back to a level they are willing to accept. This is where the true power of the market and more importantly the people’s power lie…as consumers. If a consumer decides that the price is too high she can just turn away, and with the markets that America has developed, they can look elsewhere. We as consumers have the power of alternatives and options, another great benefit from having free markets…choice.
So what happens in a bankruptcy? The prices fall to clear inventory. How far the prices fall is determined by the market and the need to move that inventory to meet the demands of the defunct business. Again the market place determines a fair price by matching the seller with the buyer at a price both can live with. In the case of stocks, the price will fall to some level where a buyer will believe that he can find value in the purchase. Look at the recent Circuit City bankruptcy as an example. They have invited in the liquidators who will sale all remaining inventory (and then some) at liquidation prices. First they will move all prices back up to full retail and then start marking off a certain percentage to make the sale. A few weeks pass and they will raise the percentage off to sell a little more. A few more weeks and a few more percentages, until most all the inventory has been sold off by having a willing buyer and a willing seller at an agreed upon price. The good stuff will go first at the highest prices and the lesser stuff will go as their fair price is eventually reached. It is natural, and it is how real markets work.
So what can we compare this to today? There are two common elements that exist today that were common back then. First is an overinflated market full of speculators and hype that has easy access to excessive credit for an overleveraged play. If anybody could not see the comparison to Real Estate investing then you shouldn’t be allowed to vote because you just aren’t paying enough attention to the world around you.
Real estate has been a huge hit sense someone went to the trouble of trying to convince everyone that they should have some. A chicken in every pot, a car in every garage, and home ownership, the American dream, who could ask for anything more?
Real estate promised equity and wealth, and a place of status. It was incentivized and subsidized by tax breaks and government programs. Best of all you could finance 80%, then 90%, then 100% with no money down. They even had loans that would give you 120% of the homes “value”. At the pinnacle of it all you could even find loans where you never had to pay back the principle, just pay the interest and everything would be fine. After all the prices were going up and up and up and they aren’t building any more land you know.
Everywhere you turned there was a class or a course on how to buy real estate with no money down, or how to flip a home, or buy a foreclosure, or become a landlord. Real estate gurus came and went as fast as you could change the channel on the late night infomercials. All you had to do was take a look around and you could see someone that had made a mint in real estate, why even the Governor of California made his millions in real estate so why shouldn’t we.
And even if it wasn’t to make us rich by becoming the next Donald Trump we could at least be better off. We have always been told that owning your own home was a good and smart investment. Look at the equity your building. You have ownership of something and they can’t take that away from you. Why pay someone else when you can be paying yourself? (That is good advice when applied in a practical matter).
So the equity you built is caused by inflation and not by an increase in value, and owning your own home allows you to put holes in the walls where you want to and repaint any color you so choose without checking with a landlord first, and owning your own home means you can do with it whatever you want to as long as what you want to do is consistent with existing zoning laws and property covenants and building permits, and owning your home means no one can take that away from you unless you have a mortgage and miss a payment or run up against hard times and can’t pay your property taxes, but hey it is your home.
In the past, you could only borrow an amount that would have your monthly payment no greater than 25% of one wage earners income and that was probably take home pay at that. Recently it seems that you could qualify to finance an amount that would take 80% of your take home pay. (The remaining amount could pay for cable and you could feed yourself with food stamps).
Click here to see the new Great Depression Part 3 or here to go to Part 1.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 1.
There are certain stages in our nation’s history that we thought would never be repeated. In fact they should never be repeated. Those that have not learned the lessons from the past are doomed to repeat them. We have learned these lessons, or at the very least should have. For those that have not learned them, there are others that have if we will but listen. Sometimes it becomes a matter of knowing who to listen to. In this world of spin and revisionist historians, it is easy to become confused. Here then is my contribution to the economic world of wonder we are facing.
The current financial crisis we are facing has often been compared to the Great Depression. There may be some similarities and that is disturbing as this need never have happened, but with the passage of the “stimulus bill” it most certainly will turn into another great depression.
First a quick word about the economy and economic cycles. Booms and Busts. They have been with us since the beginning of commerce and will continue to be a major part of any world that consists of trade. The market psychology that comes with it is also nothing new. People get overly exuberant and overly pessimistic at the worst times and that drives the demand side of the supply vs. demand equation to unrealistic levels. Once it gets too far one way or the other, it usually returns to a more normal state but at a pace that catches most people unprepared. When this is done on a large scale it is called a bubble. It is called a bubble because prices grow rapidly and, much like a bubble, from the insertion of air…much of it hot. When a bubble can take no more air yet more is introduced, the bubble pops and everything comes tumbling back to normal waiting for someone to stick their ring in a can of solution, blow real hard and start to create the next new bubble.
We have all experienced bubbles before and sometimes not even realized it. The recent increase and then decrease in the price of oil and gasoline is a great example. The tech stock market that took dot.coms to the stratosphere and then tanked in 2000 is another. The bubble that is getting us today is housing. In order to put this into perspective and compare it to the Great Depression, let us go back to that time and see what was happening.
Most will say that the stock market crash of 1929 triggered the Great Depression while others are looking at other factors such as the governments reactions (actions taken after the fact) as the major cause of the Great Depression. From what I have seen and read, I tend to fall in the later camp.
The stock market crash of 1929 had several factors that came into play but one of the key elements was that fact that you could buy stocks on margin. In other words, you could use debt, or borrow 90% of the price of a stock to purchase it. This is known as using leverage in the investing world. It works great as long as prices are going up. It can kill you when prices go down. Here is how it works.
You buy $100 dollars in stock but you only have to come up with $10 and your broker came up with the other $90. The price of your stock goes to $110 and you sell it. You pay back the broker his $90 plus some interest for borrowing his money, say $1. That leaves you with the remaining $9 as profit and since you only put up $10 of your own money you just made a 90% return on your investment. Pretty sweet deal and way better than the piddley amount you would earn in interest from the bank.
The boom market in stocks that started in the mid 1920’s was making many people very rich, and just like the gold rush it attracted many newcomers, some that knew what they were doing and many that didn’t. It seemed that anybody could invest and make big money, and many did. And when you saw your neighbor making easy money it was natural for you to want to do the same. Pretty soon everyone was trying to jump on the band wagon and make their fortune. Eventually, prices rose to a point that was ridiculous and unsustainable and they started to decline.
When prices decline, those that have leveraged are the ones that are hurt. When the $100 stock goes to $90, and you bought it on margin, you still owe your broker $90. If you sell the stock now and pay off the broker, (and don’t forget you owe him $91 to cover the cost of borrowing) you are left with nothing. Well you don’t want that to happen so you hold on thinking this is a temporary down turn and prices will be heading up again very soon. After all you made this investment to become rich like your neighbor, and everybody is doing it. Pretty soon however the price is $80 and your broker gives you a call and says he needs some money to cover the shortfall. You don’t have any money because you spent your last $10 buying this stock that was going to make you rich. The broker sells your stock and you owe him the difference.
As the broker sells your stock it puts more pressure on the prices and they continue to go down creating a spiral effect. Individuals have to pull money from the bank to pay off their debts. If the stock they bought is used as collateral for other purchases and the value of that collateral declines the other loans are in danger of going into default. As the defaults start in one area they can quickly expand, moving from one area to another by hitting one account and then another. As people scrambled to cover their newly acquired debt and save their personal finances from collapsing, it began to impact other people and business portfolios. They in turn had to struggle to save their finances from collapsing. One person’s pain began to be felt by all.
Now remember that this was nothing new and in reality it was quite common for markets to experience booms and bust. In fact, some areas of some markets have had greater price movements both up and down. Investors have made their millions and lost everything on many occasions and in many different markets even before there was a stock market. You can find books that will describe other markets such as the great tulip market of the 1600’s that went through these outlandish pricing periods. In fact there have been many markets in our lifetime that have experienced extreme boom and bust conditions. Our awareness of them is only brought about by our personal participation or the participation of someone we know. The really big ones are only well known because they impacted a large percentage of the population. Where was the media when you lost all that money on your cabbage patch doll and beanie baby collection?
As a result of the magnitude of the stock market price decline, the impacts spilled out into all aspects of the economy from banks to business to government. The madness of men and markets drove a typical price correction into a recession of large magnitude and that should have been the end of it but then it turned into a depression as a result of the actions taken by the government to correct the problem.
Now before you get me wrong, note that they did do some things right. The margin rates were cut so that investors were no longer able to buy stocks with 10% down. The current rate is 50% which some might think is still high but 2 for 1 is a lot less than 10 for 1. They also strengthened the banking system and regulations for oversight and increased the use of insurance for depositors to restore faith in the banking system.
Unfortunately, the Great Depression also allowed the government to introduce the New Deal. This was one of those giant knee-jerk reactions from government to fix the wrongs of man. What it did was introduce many of the Socialist policies and programs that we face today. It also launched a large “stimulus” package that tried to spend our way back to prosperity. Many would say that it extended the length of the depression many years past its natural length. I would have to agree. Much of the spending went into make work projects where efficiencies and effectiveness were not considered let alone any outcomes beyond the creation of jobs as the objective. We also created the world’s largest legal Ponzi scheme ever known to man…Social Security.
This government driven economy is the very idea we used to find so abhorrent in communist nations and would speak openly against. We used to think that nationalizing any industry was something that only happened in backward third world countries and if anyone even suggested such a thing people would start looking for a hanging rope. Laissez faire has oft been the slogan of a free nation.
Click here to continue to the new Great Depression Pt. 2. or Part 3.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
The current financial crisis we are facing has often been compared to the Great Depression. There may be some similarities and that is disturbing as this need never have happened, but with the passage of the “stimulus bill” it most certainly will turn into another great depression.
First a quick word about the economy and economic cycles. Booms and Busts. They have been with us since the beginning of commerce and will continue to be a major part of any world that consists of trade. The market psychology that comes with it is also nothing new. People get overly exuberant and overly pessimistic at the worst times and that drives the demand side of the supply vs. demand equation to unrealistic levels. Once it gets too far one way or the other, it usually returns to a more normal state but at a pace that catches most people unprepared. When this is done on a large scale it is called a bubble. It is called a bubble because prices grow rapidly and, much like a bubble, from the insertion of air…much of it hot. When a bubble can take no more air yet more is introduced, the bubble pops and everything comes tumbling back to normal waiting for someone to stick their ring in a can of solution, blow real hard and start to create the next new bubble.
We have all experienced bubbles before and sometimes not even realized it. The recent increase and then decrease in the price of oil and gasoline is a great example. The tech stock market that took dot.coms to the stratosphere and then tanked in 2000 is another. The bubble that is getting us today is housing. In order to put this into perspective and compare it to the Great Depression, let us go back to that time and see what was happening.
Most will say that the stock market crash of 1929 triggered the Great Depression while others are looking at other factors such as the governments reactions (actions taken after the fact) as the major cause of the Great Depression. From what I have seen and read, I tend to fall in the later camp.
The stock market crash of 1929 had several factors that came into play but one of the key elements was that fact that you could buy stocks on margin. In other words, you could use debt, or borrow 90% of the price of a stock to purchase it. This is known as using leverage in the investing world. It works great as long as prices are going up. It can kill you when prices go down. Here is how it works.
You buy $100 dollars in stock but you only have to come up with $10 and your broker came up with the other $90. The price of your stock goes to $110 and you sell it. You pay back the broker his $90 plus some interest for borrowing his money, say $1. That leaves you with the remaining $9 as profit and since you only put up $10 of your own money you just made a 90% return on your investment. Pretty sweet deal and way better than the piddley amount you would earn in interest from the bank.
The boom market in stocks that started in the mid 1920’s was making many people very rich, and just like the gold rush it attracted many newcomers, some that knew what they were doing and many that didn’t. It seemed that anybody could invest and make big money, and many did. And when you saw your neighbor making easy money it was natural for you to want to do the same. Pretty soon everyone was trying to jump on the band wagon and make their fortune. Eventually, prices rose to a point that was ridiculous and unsustainable and they started to decline.
When prices decline, those that have leveraged are the ones that are hurt. When the $100 stock goes to $90, and you bought it on margin, you still owe your broker $90. If you sell the stock now and pay off the broker, (and don’t forget you owe him $91 to cover the cost of borrowing) you are left with nothing. Well you don’t want that to happen so you hold on thinking this is a temporary down turn and prices will be heading up again very soon. After all you made this investment to become rich like your neighbor, and everybody is doing it. Pretty soon however the price is $80 and your broker gives you a call and says he needs some money to cover the shortfall. You don’t have any money because you spent your last $10 buying this stock that was going to make you rich. The broker sells your stock and you owe him the difference.
As the broker sells your stock it puts more pressure on the prices and they continue to go down creating a spiral effect. Individuals have to pull money from the bank to pay off their debts. If the stock they bought is used as collateral for other purchases and the value of that collateral declines the other loans are in danger of going into default. As the defaults start in one area they can quickly expand, moving from one area to another by hitting one account and then another. As people scrambled to cover their newly acquired debt and save their personal finances from collapsing, it began to impact other people and business portfolios. They in turn had to struggle to save their finances from collapsing. One person’s pain began to be felt by all.
Now remember that this was nothing new and in reality it was quite common for markets to experience booms and bust. In fact, some areas of some markets have had greater price movements both up and down. Investors have made their millions and lost everything on many occasions and in many different markets even before there was a stock market. You can find books that will describe other markets such as the great tulip market of the 1600’s that went through these outlandish pricing periods. In fact there have been many markets in our lifetime that have experienced extreme boom and bust conditions. Our awareness of them is only brought about by our personal participation or the participation of someone we know. The really big ones are only well known because they impacted a large percentage of the population. Where was the media when you lost all that money on your cabbage patch doll and beanie baby collection?
As a result of the magnitude of the stock market price decline, the impacts spilled out into all aspects of the economy from banks to business to government. The madness of men and markets drove a typical price correction into a recession of large magnitude and that should have been the end of it but then it turned into a depression as a result of the actions taken by the government to correct the problem.
Now before you get me wrong, note that they did do some things right. The margin rates were cut so that investors were no longer able to buy stocks with 10% down. The current rate is 50% which some might think is still high but 2 for 1 is a lot less than 10 for 1. They also strengthened the banking system and regulations for oversight and increased the use of insurance for depositors to restore faith in the banking system.
Unfortunately, the Great Depression also allowed the government to introduce the New Deal. This was one of those giant knee-jerk reactions from government to fix the wrongs of man. What it did was introduce many of the Socialist policies and programs that we face today. It also launched a large “stimulus” package that tried to spend our way back to prosperity. Many would say that it extended the length of the depression many years past its natural length. I would have to agree. Much of the spending went into make work projects where efficiencies and effectiveness were not considered let alone any outcomes beyond the creation of jobs as the objective. We also created the world’s largest legal Ponzi scheme ever known to man…Social Security.
This government driven economy is the very idea we used to find so abhorrent in communist nations and would speak openly against. We used to think that nationalizing any industry was something that only happened in backward third world countries and if anyone even suggested such a thing people would start looking for a hanging rope. Laissez faire has oft been the slogan of a free nation.
Click here to continue to the new Great Depression Pt. 2. or Part 3.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
06 December 2008
Too busy to listen?
There are many things I have wanted to write about this past week but by the time a get around to it they are missing from my memory. I really need to invest in a notebook or at least a notepad and take notes to refresh that memory when I finally get the opportunity to sit down at the keyboard. It is those little suggestions that come to your mind in the middle of the night, or while you are driving to work and you’re stuck in traffic, or you are stuck in a staff meeting; that is when you’re mind starts to wander and you receive some marvelous ideas.
I have a hard time staying awake in meetings. On the one hand I think that I am easily bored but on the other hand I think that I am on a constant go and when I come to a screeching halt to sit in a meeting I tend to fade out. I think that this has something to do with being on pace all the time, from the moment we rise till the moment our head hits the pillow we are doing something. It isn’t always something important. It isn’t always something of value. It is just something. When you get to those points we you have to do nothing, like standing in lines or sitting in meetings, the body and mind go into pause mode.
At work we have to appear to be busy, whither it is productive or not is another matter though I am always trying to be productive because it is in my nature to do so, even then there is always the effort to appear busy. This even comes at times when you have to sit and think your way through a problem; you have to do it in such a way that it appears you are busy. I am sure that this affects more than just those of us that live in a world of Dilbert.
This carries over into our home lives as we return home to find a list of daily and weekly chores awaiting our arrival. There is enough busy work backlogged to keep us busy for a month of Saturdays. No wonder we crash on the couch, flip on the TV and mindlessly surf the voids that use to provide some respite through entertainment. And when there is a commercial on, we can’t let that time go to waste so we are up doing little chores running to and fro or we start to channel surf looking for something to fill the gap between the program in an effort to ease our conscience for sitting there inert for the 2 to 3 minute exposure of advertising drivel.
When did we lose control of this thing we call the time of our lives? And how do we gain it back?
We used to hear about the time before TV when people used to sit around and have conversations. Now that seems to have been relegated to a chore and must be done only on a cell phone while commuting in the car.
People used to read books for personal education, entertainment, and enjoyment. There seems to be too much personal effort after a long laborious day to want to expend anything in that area. Besides it takes many, many hours to make your way through one whole book when you can throw in a DVD and watch the movie in a fraction of the time. I could probably watch all 7 Harry Potter movies in the same amount of time it takes to read one of the books.
So when it comes time for prayer and meditation, do we even allow ourselves the time for prayer and meditation? I mean, how much time does it take anyway? I can say my prayers in 30 seconds if I try. Or can I? It can take me a good 30 seconds just to call someone on the phone and leave a message on the answering machine. Why should my conversations with God be any less important than a daily call with a friend? And do we take the time to listen for an answer? Are our prayers truly a two way conversation, or are we just leaving a message on the machine?
I think that we need that eternal feedback from our Heavenly Father. It is an essential ingredient in the makeup of who we are. When we go without sleep are bodies feel deprived and try to compensate until sleep is mandatory. When we go without food for too long our bodies try to tell us through hunger pains that this condition cannot be a lasting one. When we go without spiritual nourishment, can we as easily read the signs of a deficit, and can we readily spot the damage done?
Perhaps that is why in those moments of sitting in meetings, inching along in traffic, standing in line, or nodding off to bed, when the world is put on hold and the pause button is pushed; perhaps it is at those times that the mind can truly reflect on things, ponder if you will, and there is enough calmness around that the inspirations of heaven can finally penetrate the noises and clamor of the world that it can reach my ears and my heart.
Perhaps that is why I shouldn’t just let those times come as a matter of chance, but should seek them out. Perhaps I should even schedule them into my daily routine. That way they will be a constant part of my life rather than a passing coincidence.
Perhaps you already know this, and I commend you if you do. After all, you did read this rather than doing something else. Perhaps it made you stop and ponder.
I know I did.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
I have a hard time staying awake in meetings. On the one hand I think that I am easily bored but on the other hand I think that I am on a constant go and when I come to a screeching halt to sit in a meeting I tend to fade out. I think that this has something to do with being on pace all the time, from the moment we rise till the moment our head hits the pillow we are doing something. It isn’t always something important. It isn’t always something of value. It is just something. When you get to those points we you have to do nothing, like standing in lines or sitting in meetings, the body and mind go into pause mode.
At work we have to appear to be busy, whither it is productive or not is another matter though I am always trying to be productive because it is in my nature to do so, even then there is always the effort to appear busy. This even comes at times when you have to sit and think your way through a problem; you have to do it in such a way that it appears you are busy. I am sure that this affects more than just those of us that live in a world of Dilbert.
This carries over into our home lives as we return home to find a list of daily and weekly chores awaiting our arrival. There is enough busy work backlogged to keep us busy for a month of Saturdays. No wonder we crash on the couch, flip on the TV and mindlessly surf the voids that use to provide some respite through entertainment. And when there is a commercial on, we can’t let that time go to waste so we are up doing little chores running to and fro or we start to channel surf looking for something to fill the gap between the program in an effort to ease our conscience for sitting there inert for the 2 to 3 minute exposure of advertising drivel.
When did we lose control of this thing we call the time of our lives? And how do we gain it back?
We used to hear about the time before TV when people used to sit around and have conversations. Now that seems to have been relegated to a chore and must be done only on a cell phone while commuting in the car.
People used to read books for personal education, entertainment, and enjoyment. There seems to be too much personal effort after a long laborious day to want to expend anything in that area. Besides it takes many, many hours to make your way through one whole book when you can throw in a DVD and watch the movie in a fraction of the time. I could probably watch all 7 Harry Potter movies in the same amount of time it takes to read one of the books.
So when it comes time for prayer and meditation, do we even allow ourselves the time for prayer and meditation? I mean, how much time does it take anyway? I can say my prayers in 30 seconds if I try. Or can I? It can take me a good 30 seconds just to call someone on the phone and leave a message on the answering machine. Why should my conversations with God be any less important than a daily call with a friend? And do we take the time to listen for an answer? Are our prayers truly a two way conversation, or are we just leaving a message on the machine?
I think that we need that eternal feedback from our Heavenly Father. It is an essential ingredient in the makeup of who we are. When we go without sleep are bodies feel deprived and try to compensate until sleep is mandatory. When we go without food for too long our bodies try to tell us through hunger pains that this condition cannot be a lasting one. When we go without spiritual nourishment, can we as easily read the signs of a deficit, and can we readily spot the damage done?
Perhaps that is why in those moments of sitting in meetings, inching along in traffic, standing in line, or nodding off to bed, when the world is put on hold and the pause button is pushed; perhaps it is at those times that the mind can truly reflect on things, ponder if you will, and there is enough calmness around that the inspirations of heaven can finally penetrate the noises and clamor of the world that it can reach my ears and my heart.
Perhaps that is why I shouldn’t just let those times come as a matter of chance, but should seek them out. Perhaps I should even schedule them into my daily routine. That way they will be a constant part of my life rather than a passing coincidence.
Perhaps you already know this, and I commend you if you do. After all, you did read this rather than doing something else. Perhaps it made you stop and ponder.
I know I did.
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.
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