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Showing posts with label congress. Show all posts
Showing posts with label congress. Show all posts

13 October 2016

Pick your Poison...

...would you like arsenic or cyanide?

Is that a crazy question or does it seem reasonable?  Would you like more information?  Is the  poison for a big animal or a small animal.  Is the poison meant for me or perhaps for someone else?  If the poison is meant for me or for those I love and respect, why am I facing this question?  Why is it an either/or question in the first place?  Surely there must be an alternative answer.

There should at least be an alternative question such as which ice cream would you like, vanilla or chocolate?  Who cares either way it is still ice cream.  (The correct answer to that one is of course yes.)  And in case you hadn't noticed it by now, ice cream comes in way more than two flavors and with very few exceptions they are all ice cream and you have a high probability of having an enjoyable experience with any choice you make.

So how in the world did our country get itself into this mess?  Like most of our sporting events we reduce the competitors to two teams for the finals but this time we really did get the two biggest losers.  Sad part is we knew this about them before we got to this point.  The signs were all there long before anyone even decided to start campaigning.  How could a reasonable person not see them for who and what they are?

And as for the original question, how could a reasonable person be expected to answer it?  How do you make a logical choice in an illogical world?

Perhaps it would be better to change the question entirely.  Perhaps we would be better off changing the way the game is played and refuse to be stuck in a lose lose proposition.

In track and field the final race is not between two individuals but between a field of the fastest and best individuals.  Here is an idea worth pursuing, open up your field and let the others in.  I mean really open up the field and go beyond the few side shows the media has been willing to mention a few times in the effort to appear to be journalist.

I am saying that this is the year to stand for something and not just take action to be against something.  If you honestly like one of the choices you have been given that take it and bare the consequences.  But, if you like one of the earlier candidates then write them in.  If you didn't like any of the candidates at all and would much rather have someone else you know would represent you better then write them in.  If you think that a dead comedian would do a better job than the current bunch then write them in.  (I am sure that Pat Paulsen would love the attention and always showed more common sense than the average politician.)  Just make sure you know the rules for write in candidates for your voting area or the rules of the game will get you thrown out.

'But Ed, doesn't that mean I will just be throwing away my vote?'

You don't think it is thrown away already?

What better time than now to make a statement and stand for something?  In the movies when the good guy is presented with a 'pick your poison' question he usually reacts by spitting in the questioners face.  You can at least respect him for that.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

17 November 2011

Perry started down the right path

It may be a little bit after the fact but I wanted to see if there was going to be any additional points to the storied headlines from the Republican debate the other night other than the much maligned Rick Perry's forgetfulness. The real story was not his forgetting the third target of his smaller government plan but that no one jumped on the band wagon.

Here was a real opportunity to make real cost cutting efforts a meaningful part of the debate and start identifying Federal programs and agencies that should no longer exist (as if some of them ever should have in the first place). What would have been much more exciting for this political race and for America is if a new competition would have started that night to see who would produce the most aggressive proposal for real government reduction. The starting bid of three programs was not even bid up to four.

There are far more possibilities than those offered. The National Endowment for the Arts, Housing and Urban Development, Education, Energy, Environmental and that is just to name a very few of the big well known areas. There are dozens more of the lesser known that could come off the top that very few have even heard of.

In addition to the outright elimination of some programs, severe cuts to others would help force them to focus on core functions and objectives that serve the purpose for which they were established. As budgets got bigger, the scope of many agencies grew far beyond their original designs as they became an obstacle and stumbling block to the very public they were designed to serve.

Of course this was promoted heavily by those in Congress that felt they had to pass a new law for every whiny complaint that past through their door. Thanks also to every whiner that brought it too them thinking that government is the solution to all our problems. And a special mention to those that execute said laws and regulations and using their own interpretations to enhance what they feel those requirements were really meant to be.

And because every one of those government programs and agencies support a "someone" somehow, there will always be opposition to turning them off. Any of them.

This is a vicious cycle we have put ourselves in and when only one in ten candidates is even willing to 'talk the talk' you know the odds of real fiscal reform (where someone will 'walk the walk') are not in the cards this go around. Don't be fooled by the sound bites and photo ops but instead look for those that will let actions speak louder than words. I'm still looking, are you?

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

12 August 2011

The balanced budget amendment is hooey

With the latest financial crisis in America ever present in the minds of some and totally ignored by others (and sadly those that should be paying attention) new talk of a balanced budget amendment is raising it's head yet again. This is total political hype and haymaking and belongs in the area of things to be laughed at and made fun of and here is why. A balanced budget amendment like term limits and debt ceiling limits is a sign of weakness in the individuals that wish to have them. They are also not realistic solutions to very real problems.

Let me explain. Say you had a weight problem and were trying to get your weight back under control but your will power, resolve, and commitment to diet and exercise were just too great for you to handle. What do you do? Well the first thing I would do is pass a law that would not allow my bathroom scale to go over 200 lbs. I know for a guy my size that that is still considered overweight but really 200 lbs. is only a little overweight and wouldn't put me in the category of obese.

Of course the law of gravity (which wasn't written by me and for some reason can't be vetoed by me) is conspiring against my newly written law. But wait, there is a solution, I will buy a new scale for my bathroom, one that only goes to 200 lbs. In fact let's pass another law that says that no one can manufacture or purchase or own any bathroom scales that allow readings greater than 200. Just think of the spurt to the economy we will have from everyone having to replace all those old scales. And this rule applies to everyone equally because we care enough about you that we don't want anyone to weigh more than 200 lbs.

Oh but wait, what about the lineman who play for the Packers? Sports fans are not going to be please when they open their stat sheets only to find that their team is so evenly matched up with the opposing team with every player on the offensive and defensive line at an average weight of 200 lbs. Perhaps we should create an exemption for locker rooms. But then what should the new limit be for locker rooms? And should that be all sport locker rooms or just those of football players? Would the local fitness gym count?

And what about size? Should a 7 foot person be held to the same 200 lbs. limit, and should there be a lower limit for people under 5 feet tall? What if someone bought a metric scale, would a 200 kilogram limit apply?

I could go on and on but you quickly see how silly this stuff can get and this really is how some of our laws get created, especially the ones that shouldn't be laws in the first place as the bathroom scale represents. It is not in the charter people, it does not belong.

As I have stated before many of our laws are created to prevent you from doing or having something that I don't want you to have or do. Term limits where created as a way to remove a candidate that someone else didn't agree with but didn't have enough influence to remove with a legitimate alternative. You would think that common sense would prevail from the majority but as is too often the case common sense is not that common. How else do you explain the reelection time after time of (insert name here but contain yourself to the top 20 that come to mind)? Of course you have to think that if the people continue to put (insert name) back in office then they fully deserve what they get. And if the people of (insert state) wish to be represented by (insert name) then that is their right and I as a member of (insert other state) should have no say in it other than to make sure I am represented by someone who better expresses my viewpoint than (insert name).

Well that is all fine and dandy for the actions of others but what about for yourself? The key words is action and for self. When it comes to being a grown up and an individual we somewhere along the way begin to take responsibility for our own actions, which includes the outcome or consequences of those actions. Some of those consequences are automatic and consistent. If I jump up in the air, I will return to earth (there is that law of gravity again). There are certain rules we all must abide whether we know them or not. We can not impose our will over them just by saying they are not so. And if we say that we weigh 200 lbs. when we do not that is called a lie or at the very least a deception meant for others but mostly for self.

So if it is not a law or should not be then what is it? A GOAL. We can have a goal to have a balanced budget. The proposed law is an attempt to force an action to obtain the goal but it is a forced action and goal both of which are poorly defined, stated and acted upon. The debt ceiling was made into law in an effort to control an out of control government. It is not effective in that it has not made any headway in that regard. Because of it's failure to constrain the government fiscally it has been rewritten constantly to change the total debt limit more times than the number of years it has been in existence. It is like passing a law that says I can not weigh more than 200 only to rewrite it the next day at 201 and the next day at 202 and the next day at 203 and so on and so on and so on.

The other factor that comes into play with these types of legislation is the exemptions. They totally negate the effect you were after by introducing the loopholes by which you can ignore your own rules. We will have a balanced budget every year except when we can't, like during times of war or times of peace or times of famine or times of recession or times of emergency such as tsunamis or floods or hurricanes or tornadoes or earthquakes or depressions or election years or any time one of our neighbors has one of these problems. Oh yeah, and I will never eat chocolate again, unless I have a craving for some that can only be resolved by the ingesting of some form of chocolate.

Getting the idea.

We are the ones that are responsible for achieving our own goals, and we are the ones responsible for defining what those goals are and what rules we will give ourselves to obtain those goals. We then measure our success by how well we achieve our goals or how well we are progressing towards achieving them.

Our elected representatives are put in those positions to fulfill the will of the people. How successful they are is measured by how well they fulfill the will of the people they represent. If the people wish for a balanced budget, a debt ceiling, or a term limit, they do not need a special law enacted. They must take the action to find and elect a representative that will work on their behalf to reach these goals. They must then communicate their desires (goals) and monitor the progress of their representative to see that they are still their representative. If they really wanted a balanced budget then they would pass a balanced budget and with integrity only pass legislation that supported fiscal responsibility.

If we really wanted a balanced budget we also would be willing to accept nothing less. This means not accepting the handouts and entitlement programs that have been used by politicians for years to buy your votes and influence our support.

Just as we know what actions we must take to obtain a healthy weight, politicians know what actions they must take to obtain a healthy fiscal position with which to maintain a strong nation. If they don't, they don't belong there. If they know what they should do but they prefer not to act for their own reasons then they don't belong there. If they are not willing to act towards reaching our goals, simply put, they do not belong there.

If we are not willing to act to obtain our goals then we should not be surprised in the least when our goals are not met. All worthy goals take effort especially if you desire a worthy outcome. And you don't have to have a law written to make it happen. Just do it.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

19 July 2011

Really, a gang of six?

It is time to comment on the state of the nations budgetary affairs. They are pathetic and only getting worse by the minute. Take the Gang of Six for example. A lousy name which means they have already been placed in the discredit category so no matter what the plan is they came up with, it has already been written off by those who wish to eliminate them as a possible contender for solutions.

And that is all right by me. The gang of six plan is really weak. It does not go far enough. Not nearly enough. To talk of cutting 4 Trillion dollars sounds austere but over a 10 year period it is really just more political ramblings designed to give them bragging rights back home, never meaning to be taken seriously. Even if it was honestly considered by anyone, you would notice that it is very vague in application merely pushing political hot topic buttons but doing very little in the way of reforming a very broken system that is on the verge of an implosion.

No one in Washington D.C. is taking the role of a true leader. No one dares stick their neck out and speak the truth and then take action based on truth. Everyone knows that the first person to present any kind of definable plan is the first one to get slaughtered because know the others have a target with which to aim their slings and arrows. Failure by consensuses is a far safer path for the average politician. And sadly we don’t even have average politicians anymore. They are all sub par.

Congress has never been known to ‘win the day’ on their own. They need someone to take charge, providing direction and purpose while providing the salesmanship necessary to placate the American public into non-confrontational acceptance of their new deal. Presidents have traditionally carried that burden or assumed that role. Don’t look for that this time around. This is one lesson that Obama didn’t quite learn from the Clintons and he is paying the price.

I don’t think he will pay the price nearly to the degree he deserves. There are still far too many people that are blindly in love with whatever they think he is. I hope they don’t wake up too late to realize the party is over and they have wasted the whole evening waiting for a prince charming who will never arrive.

As for the debt problem, reality says to me that we have it every bit as bad as Greece, and some of the others, we are just living in denial big time. The deadline will come and go and very little will be noticed by most. The real damage is yet to come as a last minute knee jerk reaction deal will be made that will allow the politicians to take a photo op, slap each other on the back and proclaim victory for our side (which ever that might be). Then the slide down hill will continue until the next masqueraded crisis rears its ugly head causing us all to take anxiety pills will our leaders forestall the inevitable. And all the while we are in our day of reckoning now and most don’t even recognize it.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

13 July 2011

I'm Back

Hello everyone. I'm afraid I've been a little busy lately, and more than a little distracted, but I have returned to share thoughts and insights but probably just to rant and vent.

In fact I have been so upset and angered by this countries lack of discipline, integrity, and sensibility while being driven by an overwhelming self-centered selfishness and an overpowering level of stupidity that my emotions got caught up in it all and I couldn't quite bring myself to compose from a reasonable centered me so I gave it up for awhile.

Anyone that has been watching the news for awhile will have noticed the insanity that has laid claim to the world around us and often makes it tempting to retreat into hibernation or at the very least begin practicing the life of a hermit.

But alas I am too far entrenched in day to day living to commit that form of social suicide. And neither should you if you are experiencing the same level of frustration of that external world that tries so hard to dominate our lives. It is at this point that we must stand and say "nuts to you" and move on with what we do, and that is to live the good life and fight the good fight. To accept anything less is to deny our true inheritance.

So what was the trigger that brings me back around. A little news article on the radio this morning that reported President Obama praising someone other than himself, a republican no less that goes by the name of Mitch McConnell. You have got to know that you are way off base when no less than Obama and Harry Reid are calling your ideas a 'serious proposal'.

So what is this 'serious proposal'? How about letting the President raise the national debt ceiling without GOP support. That's right, the Senate minority leader is suggesting that Congress forgo its duties and responsibilities and hand the President the last keys to national destruction. I don't know why they would bother since all three branches seem to be working in a concerted effort to accomplish the same willful degradation of the remnants of a once upon a time fine upstanding and well respected country.

If you understand the debt crisis at all, or even just a little you are shaking in your boots right now along with the rest of us, but it is not the core of the problem. It is not even center stage of our drama or worse yet in the eyes of the people that matter most, the citizens of this nation. It is also just one symptom of a long list of symptoms plaguing our country right now and its future is hanging in the balance.

Someone from the White House said "never let a good crisis go to waste" but the scary truth that walks hand in hand with that is 'if you don't have a crisis now, make one'. I don't know how much of what is happening is fabrication and deliberate manipulation but I have seen enough to make me think that there is a definite plan being played out and there are some who think they will gain power by allowing events to unfold the way they have. Over the past several years (and decades and beyond) these types of events have led those in power to excuse themselves in taking action that has undermined our freedoms and our liberties. And for all intense and purposes it is happening again. Just as we now joke at the cliche of 'do it for the children' (although I still hear that one used time and again) we are not laughing at the effects it has had on our lives. Last time we were all too willing to do 'whatever it takes' to maintain our homeland security. This time we will do 'whatever it takes' to maintain our economic security. And all the while we have willingly done 'whatever it takes', we have done so without really realizing what was taken. The physical and economic security that was once in our hands as been placed in the hands of another, and now we have neither.

Where is that country that was so highly praised for freedom and liberty and was hailed as a land of opportunity and righteousness? Where is that people that stood proudly for one nation under God and valued it so highly that many would willingly give their lives in defending it? Where are the voices of reason in the tumultuous din of stupidity?

It is not all gone...yet. It is not all forgotten...yet. Fear not to add your voice to reason. If it sounds like stupid and feels like stupid, please don't be afraid to say so. When stupid looks itself in the mirror, truth is revealed and reason can stand. It is time to let laughter and ridicule drive stupidity back into the long forgotten shadows from whence it came.

History is replete with examples where stupidity runs rampant, but it only last for awhile. For those of us looking for the better way, having lived it and knowing what it is, there is still a light of hope that all is not lost. There is still a chance for the return of sanity. And although I am predicting that there is the potential for some serious hard times ahead, both economically, politically and socially, there is still an opportunity for much good to come from all this. That is what I continue to look for, hope for and pray for. I hope that you will be doing the same.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

10 January 2010

Beware credit companies, the consumer is coming

You may have noticed an increase in credit and credit card offers lately. Don’t be drawn in. The rules are about to change and the increase in offers is an attempt to lock in the old rules on those willing to play by the old rules.

So what are the old rules vs. the new rules? I am not sure, but I do know this, they involve high fees and high rates with harsh penalties, new or old. Like so many things coming out of Congress these days in the way of financial regulation, the details somehow get lost in the delivery to the public. I do know that there are rules trying to reign in the current almost obscene method credit card companies are using to adjust rates and charge fees.

In fact if you have listened to Clark Howard, Suze Orman or Dave Ramsey you have probably heard at least one call from a listener telling their story of how the credit card company was changing the rules on them mid stream and wondering what they could do about it seeing how they had been a long time good customer with that company. If they do not have any free cash available to close out their account then most times the answer seems to be try to negotiate with the company or try to live with the new terms. (Wherever possible provide yourself some options.)

Trouble is many people have been living on the edge for so long that there is no room for new terms. All of their spending money is pre committed and they are stretched to pay the minimum balance on these credit cards as it is. Sad to say but many people had a very hard time making their new minimum payment the last time Congress got involved and raised the required minimum payment on outstanding balances as the Congress’ way of trying to help (by force) people to lower their debt levels.

The latest round of increased minimum payment is coming about because of changes in the interest rates charged to the card holders by the card companies. The higher the rate, the higher the interest charges and the higher the minimum payment based on that higher charge. These rate changes come about because of changing terms that made your fixed card now a variable card or even worse. Some card companies have added clauses that state if you are late or default not only on their account but that of anybody else’s account they will raise your rate to loan shark levels, and they are doing it.

“But I had an agreement with them” you say “they shouldn’t be able to change the rules mid stream.” They shouldn’t but they do and it comes in the form of a little tiny printed piece of paper that comes with your statement every so often. Do you take the time to read all of them all the way through? Buried in the legalize is the change and if you aren’t paying attention they have you because it usually comes with a phrase or two that indicates your options are two, either continue to use the card and by default accept the new terms, or notify us now and we will cancel your account and your bill is now due in full for the outstanding balance.

If you are able then my suggestion is to pay off the amount in full and close out the account. Let’s put the power of the consumer back in our pocket. There are still lots of competition for credit cards out there if the number of offers I get is any indication which means there are still many companies that should be competing for my business. I as the consumer have the power to pick and choose who has the best deal to meet my best interest. I get to decide which if any is right for me, and I will vote with my hard earned dollars who I will work with, even if that means none at all.

After the new rules go into effect we should begin to see a new set of offers from companies that are trying to decide how best to play the new game in town. If you can hold off till then I think you will be better off for it. When it comes, I think it will be in all of our best interest to take a close look at what the new offers are and compare them to what we have now and actively switch to a better provider if one is found. Credit Card Companies you have officially been put on notice. If you don’t treat me better, and with the respect I deserve then You Are Fired.

The new rules Congress is laying down should make it harder for the companies to change your rules mid stream like they are doing in abundance now, but to get the new rules to apply to you it sounds like you will need to create a new account where the new rules will apply. I hope that is not the case but if it is I see it as an opportunity for those willing to spend the time and effort to search out better and more trustworthy companies to work with in the future. I will share with you my ideals of standards for a credit card in a later entry.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

19 August 2009

Cash for Clunkers program is fiasco

I am of the opinion that the Cash for Clunkers program was and is one of the biggest mistakes this country has made. It sums up and represents all that is wrong with the government’s approach to correcting this so called economic meltdown. Let me explain.

Cash for Clunkers is once again a knee jerk governmental reaction to a problem that would solve itself on its own if left to the natural forces of supply and demand. The idea instead is to follow the plan put forward by Germany and another country that slips my mind at this time and create an incentive for consumers to go out and spend their money. One major difference between our plan and theirs is that they limited the purchase to home grown vehicles, where as we limited it to gas thrifty cars no matter where they came from.

On the surface this sounds great. Haven’t we been told that the car industry was in trouble and then proved it by taking over two of the three remaining original American car companies. This would drive consumers to their doors just drooling over themselves in an effort to buy a car that Uncle Sam was willing to put the down payment on. And what a down payment, $3,500 to $4,500 and for what, my old worthless beater that was just barely running as it was. Besides if I tried to buy the car on my own, the dealer certainly wouldn’t give me anything for it and I would have to try and sell it myself or get a salvage yard to come haul it away.

Besides that, Congress social engineering kicks in and says why not make the deal available only to those that trade that old beater in on something that gets better gas mileage. That way, we can save the planet while helping to reduce our dependence on oil energy. What a deal.

What a deal is right. First of all, free money is never free. It has to come from somewhere and that somewhere is those that pay taxes and from those that don’t in the form of inflation as the dollar continues to tank for fear that the only way out of this excessive spend rate is to start the printing presses. There are some that will understand this but there are far too many yet that don’t. Those that don’t will soon feel the effects but sadly still not understand what happened or why.

The next thing we notice is that the money only went so far and so a second helping twice as big as the first was dished up while Congress patted itself on the back for finally doing something that helped people directly instead of just subsidizing the financial mistakes of Wall Street. Only thing is this big dollop of dollars like those before it does not help all Americans or even most Americans. It only helps those that fall into their specially defined category, namely those with a clunker/beater that is worth less than the amount of the rebate and gets lousy gas mileage. I have a friend that thinks her car is ready for the scrap heap (though knowing the type car it should be far from it) and all the hype has made her interested in trading in to take advantage but she found out she doesn’t qualify because her old steed is already a fuel efficient vehicle.

The other qualifier is that you must be in a position to be able to afford a new vehicle and not later but now. This isn’t always easy even in the best of times, but that is o.k. because you can just take out a loan. (Wait a minute; wasn’t that what got us into this mess in the first place, easily obtained excessive debt?) So if you can’t qualify for a loan or if you are not willing to qualify but you don’t have a pocket full of cash, sorry Charlie.

But who wouldn’t buy a car now; the incentive from the government is just the icing on the calk. The dealers must be dealing like crazy to stay afloat, after all we still remember the deals they were willing to make after 9/11and back then they were selling way more cars than they are now.

If you happened to look at any of the ads for new cars, have you really seen any deals being presented. Most of the dealers are moving cars so fast they don’t seem to worry about making a deal. They know that if you don’t want it they have another one right behind you that is more than willing. Besides they only have a limited inventory of eligible cars and the government is providing the incentive and they don’t even have to bargain on the value of your trade in so why not sell all cars at full retail MSRP? The dealers can’t help but be overjoyed because now they have buyers that won’t even bother to question the price.

And what of these old cars that are being turned in for free money. Well there first thing to do is to make sure they don’t get put back on the street, so they are destroyed with a mixture in the engine to seize it up for good and then off to the smasher to make sure that the vehicle is beyond the use of any mere mortal. The cars are not even sent to a junk yard to scrap the recyclable parts and put them to use on existing cars that could easily use that unscarred fender or rear axle to return an existing vehicle to serviceable condition without the need of going to a new parts supplier that will have to make the new part using new material (even if it is from recently smashed up traded in clunkers) and lots of energy to form that material into the needed part.

For those of us that have had to live on a budget and are of limited means, a used part was sometimes the only means of keeping our cars alive in good repair. That brings up the other hidden cost to this whole program. Used cars support more than just those that drive them. There is a whole industry built up to support those used cars. Used cars are also the means by which many people have been able to raise their standard of living.

As a person trades in their old vehicle and buy a new one, their old vehicle has value and is still useable by someone who is willing to pay money for that use. They themselves might be trading in their older vehicle in an effort to upgrade and in so doing free up another used vehicle to pass on to someone that has a need for cheap transportation. That vehicle is a means for some to get a much needed job, or to deliver a sick mother to a doctor appointment, or deliver children to school. The vehicle creates possibilities that would otherwise have a person do without.

As all of these vehicles disappear, there will be a whole group of people that rely on these most entry level of vehicles that will have to learn to do without for awhile. Their cost of entry just went up greatly because the supply of good serviceable cars has suddenly shrunken.

So who wins with this lousiest of all programs? The bailed out auto industry? Not if you look at the list of the top 10 qualifying cars and notice that not one of which comes from one of those bailed out car manufacturers. About the American car manufacturer and labor? Well if you look at the cars that are being bought and notice that many of those Toyotas and Hondas and the two Fords that made the list are built in America then yes perhaps some citizens benefited. But for how long? Is this just a massive promotional sale that will only last as long as the ‘free money’ but will return to gloom and doom as soon as it is gone? All indications are that the plants are not ready to crank up production just yet as this has just been an easy way to move existing inventory, in other words, things still look pretty bleak over all for the industry.

But what about the economy, won’t this provide the much needed stimulus we have all been talking about? If you were one of the ones that just happened to be in a position to take advantage of this program then you paid full retail for a vehicle that you are now committed to paying for the next 5 years for. This commitment of future cash flow means that the money is spent and cannot be used for any other purpose or purchase. The fact that the government subsidized the purchase, much like a tax deduction for mortgage interest, doesn’t make it any less spent, and unlike the government you cannot spend you income more than once.

As was illustrated earlier, this does nothing for the lower income brackets but steal away from them a sooner opportunity to move up a notch or two. And what about all the cars that will now be getting better gas mileage, doesn’t that help? States are already crying because they don’t receive enough of your money in the form of taxes so how do you think they will feel when you no longer by enough gas to cover their expected gas tax revenue. They are going to want more, mark my words. Also, I firmly believe that the free market would have given us cars and trucks with much higher gas mileage ratings than we have today if they had just been left alone and let the free market help drive demand rather than letting the government set mandates. If you could convince enough people that they really wanted high mileage vehicles, the market would and will supply them. Where there is value and demand there is a market.

So the only ones that benefit from this fiasco even if it is just temporarily are the car dealers that got one last chance to gouge the consumer if they were lucky enough to retain a dealership after the last round of closures. And if they are gouging, as any consumer should readily see, then are they really the dealers that should have survived the last round of closures. I look around and see the ones that made it near my area and definitely wonder ‘what were they thinking’? Come to think of it, I have been asking myself that question about a whole lot of things lately.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

18 March 2009

Are their any grownups in Washington DC?

I am upset, disappointed, frustrated, infuriated, and all types of angry over what has happened in this country by our government and its people as it pertains to the economy.

I know I am not the only one.

The absurdity is overwhelming. I could not conceive of this as a reality scenario in even the most horrific Stephen King novel. I am completely dumbfounded and in a state of shock to think that there is even a remote possibility that the things I have seen and heard lately concerning our government and the economy are somehow based on anything approaching real life let alone the mind of a very imaginative fiction writer. How could any of this be real?

Hypocrisy is running rampant in Washington DC. The blame game is in full swing and no one but the other guy is to blame for the current mess we are in. I am amazed at the way Congress and the President are showing their disgust at employees of AIG receiving their agreed upon and contracted for bonuses totaling $165,000,000+ yet no one is saying much about the rest of the $2,000,000,000,000 of tax payer dollars that has been spent or promised for their solution to the economic downturn. (If you don’t understand the magnitude of those numbers and the actual difference between them, you are not alone, Congress does not either.)

They are now talking about taking legal action to ‘reclaim’ the bonuses if they can’t get them back voluntarily through shame or guilt. They are even talking about writing legislation to create new tax laws specifically aimed at taking back these peoples pay checks. Honestly, who is more guilty of a criminal act and gross negligence?

I am not defending the employees for their action as employees, their performances or whether they met the terms of their bonuses or not. I am not focusing on the management at AIG who felt it was necessary to make such agreements to obtain and retain the kind of employees they deemed fit for the positions they had. I am talking about our government’s actions to help. They stepped in and threw money at the problem without understanding the problem or asking questions or checking facts. They gave the money without any strings attached, (though that is hard to believe as anytime the money gives out anything there are strings attached). And now because a business that was labeled ‘too big to fail’ tries to continue to run business the way it always has (which is partly why it is in the shape it is) and we are supposed to be outraged and focus our attention on the employees because they got paid to do what they are paid to do? I don’t think so.

If Congress had let AIG fail, as businesses are supposed to be allowed to do when things don’t work out, the house of cards could have fallen, the damage would have been assessed and the remaining goods sold to valid companies at fire sale prices if need be, but then life and business goes on. AIG under bankruptcy law would have been able to renegotiate with court approval such things as employee agreements, pensions, and creditors payback. Congress could have let any of this happen and actually could have directed regulators to help facilitate the process in an orderly fashion but instead they chose to take the knee jerk reaction that threw money at the problem in the misguided notion that they had to do something. Hence they nationalized the bank (which is scandalous in any situation) without really taking anything over. They became the very noisy and boisterous silent partner. Unfortunately they did it using our tax payer money.

Though all of this is really sad and pathetic and Congress should voluntarily shut down and close shop from shame and embarrassment, the really scary thing that worries me the most is the way they are going after a target (the employees) with a vengeance that is unwarranted. If anything, Congress is every bit as culpable as the employees they are attacking and more so because this is only the tip of the giant iceberg they have created to take down the Titanic we fondly refer to as the USA.

My wish is that they would work at least as hard to renege the bailout/stimulus package they put in place, reclaim our hard earned tax dollars, both present and future, and cut their drag on my economy. Go ahead President Obama, cancel all the lousy financial actions Congress and you have passed in the past 6 months with the same vigor that you are trying to wipe out any actions taken by the previous administration. If you did that, I really would begin to have ‘hope’ again as that is a real ‘change’ I could believe in. Until then….

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

01 March 2009

Is Slavery returning to America?

Government is intruding into our lives more and more. Frankly, I didn’t invite it and I don’t agree with it. As we turn over more and more of our personal responsibilities to the goverment, or should I say as they assume more and more of our personal responsibilities, we faulter as a nation and as a people.

It is easy to see how we have succumbed to the siren call for abrogating our responsibilities. It is easier to say ‘It’s not my fault’ than to take personal responsibility. We have all been given ample opportunity to participate in the blame game, and we have certainly been taught by masters.

Our politicians have worked hard to convince us that all our troubles are not our fault and that we should blame the other guy. Their very existence and all their power is derived by creating a strong emotional response to the ‘us vs. them’ point of view. And as we have seen in the past, ‘Don’t blame the present on me, it was the last guys that were here’ is the chant of the moment.

As they con us into the latest crisis of the day, it provides for them an opportunity to snatch away more of our personal responsibilities and liberties under the misguided notion that they can run our lives better than we can. I wish to state that this is not true in my case. I hope to shout that it is not true in yours either.

All it takes is one look at the decisions coming out of Washington lately to know that they have not got a clue let alone enough knowledge, wisdom and foresight to make any decision concerning our own personal well being. In short, They Don’t Get IT.

We were not put on this earth to let others take care of us. We were not placed here by a kind and loving Father to be left in a permanent state of childhood. We are meant to grow and learn and reach for our potential. We are meant to learn right from wrong, and to learn that there are consequences for our choices and our actions. As we live we will make mistakes and we are meant to learn from them, correct them, repent of them and forgive them, and then move on.

We can choose for ourselves the right paths to take. The right path for me may not be the right path for you. We can’t all be firemen and ballerinas nor would we want to be. We all have differences and we can all contribute. That is what you get when you talk about the family of man. It takes all kinds to make this world so why would we allow anyone to mandate their ‘one size fits all’ world on us?

So what got me started on this rant? Perhaps it comes from seeing traffic cops at every turn, perhaps it is hearing of all the various bailouts using my hard earned and all too easily extracted taxes dollars, or perhaps it is the massive government budget proposal with its accompanying changes to social policy. In fact it is a combination of all these things and many others that are not listed. Why does it seem to me that the current direction our government is taking us is down the path of voluntary slavery? Debt is the master of the borrower and though each of us may have worked hard to avoid this situation in our own lives, our government is seeing fit to shackle us all with our without our consent. Isn’t it ironic that the man leading the charge into this voluntary slavery is the very one chosen as the iconic representative to supposedly close out the chapter of slavery from our past history?

Do we have what it takes to make a stand? The longer we wait, the harder it will be. Just like debt, the cost to regain freedom given up only grows bigger and more painful the longer we put it off. Denial does not work. We will eventually have to face it head on or give up and accept living in bondage. Our forefathers fought and died to give us that freedom they valued so highly. What will we pass on to those that follow us?

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

22 February 2009

Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 3.

In fact, that is just what happened. Everyone started leveraging everything and because everyone was doing it, it seemed to make it all right. We piled on debt to pay for everything to be able to live for today and it was all o.k. because once all our cards and accounts reached their max we could just consolidate everything into one big newly refinanced loan by tapping into the freshly created inflation generated equity that the investment in our homes had just produced out of thin air. Pretty neat eh?

This worked so well that we got used to it and came to expect that it would work every time. Jobs were consist enough that we could count on the income to always be there and so we went ahead and obligated ourselves to make consistent payments that matched those consistent paychecks. Most Americans had it worked out so well that everything that came in was exactly the same as everything that went out. It was a smooth running machine, until one day when the price of gas went up. Now instead of it costing $20 to fill the tank it cost $40 and you don’t have the other $20 in your pocket. Something has to go but everything you have is already spoken for. Witness the pin that popped the bubble.

So stupid people make stupid decisions, this is nothing new. It has happened before and it will happen again. The key point to take from all this is that we don’t make the innocent pay the price for the ignorance of others. That is where the second comparison has come into play. The knee-jerk reactions that followed the bad choices of others as happened following the first great depression should not be replayed this time around. Obama and Congress are launching on the biggest mistake in this nation’s history and it is not without forewarning. The “stimulus package” will seal the fate of this nation as a full blown socialist state with little hope of return. There are far too many critics that have been far too quiet concerning this matter. It is not because they have not spoken in the past or in the present, but the current mass media markets have decided not to listen. Make no mistake about it, voices are being suppressed. The America of our forefathers is in jeopardy of being no more, and for the sake of being politically correct we will squelch the voices of wisdom. We will label them crackpots or worse.

There are of course differences between now and then. FDR waited several years and I imagine went through quite a bit of debate before implementing the new deal. Obama and his congress have rushed the current new deal through in a matter of days. This surprises me especially when you compare it to the regular congressional budget that usually is past after the new fiscal year has begun, and sometimes months after. Why this rush? Banks closings are up but not anywhere near the level of the Great Depression. Unemployment is up, but also not anywhere near what it was in the Great Depression. 7.5% vs. 25+% do the math.

The economy was a hot button item during the election timeframe and usually is during campaigning. The Democrats and their media talked up how bad things were when in reality things were not really bad at all. This is not to say that there were not some bad areas and some people experiencing bad times. That has always been the case in our nation’s history. There are boom and bust cycles going on all over all the time, nothing new. But like so many political campaigns, you can’t convince others to vote for you unless you can convince them that the other guys are doing worse than you would. Standard fare, I mean I many times have you heard that the last few years under the Bush administration were the worst years ever in recorded history. Kind of sounds like the same thing Bush said about Clinton and Clinton said about the Bush before that. My question is why do we continue to believe it when the truth says otherwise, or at least is somewhere in between?

So the Democrats have convinced us all that the economy was falling apart and only they could make it work again. They said it so long that we and they started to believe it. Is this the case of a self fulfilling prophecy? Pretty soon people started making decisions based on this doomsday prophecy, confidence in the system was shaken and those decisions triggered other decisions which started us down the path of an economic slowdown.

If we can raise this slowdown to the level of a crisis, then we can implement all kinds of legislation without any questions or obstacles. What better way can you think of to get your policies in place before anyone has time to think twice? It has to be done now because it will be too late tomorrow, and beside we have to do something…don’t we? The knee-jerk caught a lame duck president with a first financial bailout and followed on to the new president with the stimulus package.

This isn’t the first real estate driven crisis, remember the 1980’s and the savings and loan problem. Remember how it wasn’t solved with a massive spending bill but a revamp of the banking industry that combined savings and loan institutions with bank bringing them under the FDIC insurance for depositor safety and then orderly liquidated bad real estate deals through the use of open market pricing? Why are we subsidizing the bad institutions this time and trying to keep them in business when we should be helping them liquidate in an orderly fashion? The FDIC could play the role of insurer as it is chartered to do and protect depositors money up to the agreed upon amounts, sell off the assets of the defunct business at market prices to willing participants and we could all get on with the business at hand.

Instead we are putting the patient on life-support, one that only prolongs the misery and the pain. Japan went through a period of denial with its real estate boom of the 80’s and they are still paying the price. Instead of clearing the books they finagled them through adjustable accounting. We are doing the same. Where oh where has wisdom gone in our elected officials?

And where has our wisdom gone? This article has taken a lot of thought and effort to write. As I have watched the proceedings take place in the news and the actions taken by our elected elite, I am both in awe and wonder. I am totally dumbfounded by what is taking place. It just doesn’t seem possible that this is actually happening in real life, and maybe when I get up tomorrow I can find that I just read it wrong. That was several days ago and I am still seeing the same thing, it is really happening. I can’t stop it, I am not an insider so I can’t profit from it, and I shudder to think what it will take to reverse it now that it is in place.

When reason fails with man, and the world begins to tumble, I guess the only thing left is the thing we have had all along. Turn to God. Pray and know that God lives. As the world tosses and turns and changes with the winds and tides; know that God is the same yesterday, today, and forever. Therein lays our strength, our guide, and our salvation. Ours need not be a fleeting moment in time if we are willing to look to our Father in Heaven with eternal eyes. My prayer for us all, leaders and citizen alike is that we have the wisdom and the courage to make the right choices and to stand for what is right.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Click here if you want to see the new Great Depression Part 1 or to go to Part 2.

Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 2.

So what did you want the government to do, nothing? Yes, as a matter of fact, that would have been the best course of action for it to take. If we really believe in free markets (a freedom principle) and the economics of supply and demand, then the role of government is too help protect consumers from fraud (a criminal act with criminal intent) and monopolies (manipulation of markets to gain control and prevent freedom within the market), and such acts for fairness sake, but not to dictate which businesses we can have and how we should run them or who we can and can’t deal with. It is when governments try to intervene on the belief that they can best determine how to ‘create’ fairness that we all lose.

This is called social engineering and it has never worked well if it has ever worked at all. In any instance I can think of, it comes down to taking away from one to give to another. It is providing subsidies for a favored group at the expense of a less favored group, and it is always the party in power that is making the decision of which group to favor. This is not equality this is theft, and it is the worst injustice of all. Two wrongs do not make a right. Just because your group or cause may be winning the ‘equality equation’ one minute is no guarantee that it will the next. Welcome to the roots of Socialism and Communism. Ayn Rand, F.A. Hayek, George Orwell, and many others have tried to warn and persuade against these evils.

So if the government would have done nothing, the market would have worked itself out and life would have gotten back to normal a lot sooner than it did. Remember the words about supply and demand. Basic economics says that when a seller and a buyer have the same price in mind, a transaction takes place. If there is a difference in the desired price each is willing to accept then no transaction takes place…that is until they come to an agreed price. Of course, if a seller’s price is less than what a buyer is willing to pay or if a buyer’s price is higher than the seller is expecting a transaction will also occur with a happier than expected outcome for one of the participants.

If prices rise too far, buyers quit buying or buy less than they normally would until either their situation changes or prices fall back to a level they are willing to accept. This is where the true power of the market and more importantly the people’s power lie…as consumers. If a consumer decides that the price is too high she can just turn away, and with the markets that America has developed, they can look elsewhere. We as consumers have the power of alternatives and options, another great benefit from having free markets…choice.

So what happens in a bankruptcy? The prices fall to clear inventory. How far the prices fall is determined by the market and the need to move that inventory to meet the demands of the defunct business. Again the market place determines a fair price by matching the seller with the buyer at a price both can live with. In the case of stocks, the price will fall to some level where a buyer will believe that he can find value in the purchase. Look at the recent Circuit City bankruptcy as an example. They have invited in the liquidators who will sale all remaining inventory (and then some) at liquidation prices. First they will move all prices back up to full retail and then start marking off a certain percentage to make the sale. A few weeks pass and they will raise the percentage off to sell a little more. A few more weeks and a few more percentages, until most all the inventory has been sold off by having a willing buyer and a willing seller at an agreed upon price. The good stuff will go first at the highest prices and the lesser stuff will go as their fair price is eventually reached. It is natural, and it is how real markets work.

So what can we compare this to today? There are two common elements that exist today that were common back then. First is an overinflated market full of speculators and hype that has easy access to excessive credit for an overleveraged play. If anybody could not see the comparison to Real Estate investing then you shouldn’t be allowed to vote because you just aren’t paying enough attention to the world around you.

Real estate has been a huge hit sense someone went to the trouble of trying to convince everyone that they should have some. A chicken in every pot, a car in every garage, and home ownership, the American dream, who could ask for anything more?

Real estate promised equity and wealth, and a place of status. It was incentivized and subsidized by tax breaks and government programs. Best of all you could finance 80%, then 90%, then 100% with no money down. They even had loans that would give you 120% of the homes “value”. At the pinnacle of it all you could even find loans where you never had to pay back the principle, just pay the interest and everything would be fine. After all the prices were going up and up and up and they aren’t building any more land you know.

Everywhere you turned there was a class or a course on how to buy real estate with no money down, or how to flip a home, or buy a foreclosure, or become a landlord. Real estate gurus came and went as fast as you could change the channel on the late night infomercials. All you had to do was take a look around and you could see someone that had made a mint in real estate, why even the Governor of California made his millions in real estate so why shouldn’t we.

And even if it wasn’t to make us rich by becoming the next Donald Trump we could at least be better off. We have always been told that owning your own home was a good and smart investment. Look at the equity your building. You have ownership of something and they can’t take that away from you. Why pay someone else when you can be paying yourself? (That is good advice when applied in a practical matter).

So the equity you built is caused by inflation and not by an increase in value, and owning your own home allows you to put holes in the walls where you want to and repaint any color you so choose without checking with a landlord first, and owning your own home means you can do with it whatever you want to as long as what you want to do is consistent with existing zoning laws and property covenants and building permits, and owning your home means no one can take that away from you unless you have a mortgage and miss a payment or run up against hard times and can’t pay your property taxes, but hey it is your home.

In the past, you could only borrow an amount that would have your monthly payment no greater than 25% of one wage earners income and that was probably take home pay at that. Recently it seems that you could qualify to finance an amount that would take 80% of your take home pay. (The remaining amount could pay for cable and you could feed yourself with food stamps).

Click here to see the new Great Depression Part 3 or here to go to Part 1.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 1.

There are certain stages in our nation’s history that we thought would never be repeated. In fact they should never be repeated. Those that have not learned the lessons from the past are doomed to repeat them. We have learned these lessons, or at the very least should have. For those that have not learned them, there are others that have if we will but listen. Sometimes it becomes a matter of knowing who to listen to. In this world of spin and revisionist historians, it is easy to become confused. Here then is my contribution to the economic world of wonder we are facing.

The current financial crisis we are facing has often been compared to the Great Depression. There may be some similarities and that is disturbing as this need never have happened, but with the passage of the “stimulus bill” it most certainly will turn into another great depression.

First a quick word about the economy and economic cycles. Booms and Busts. They have been with us since the beginning of commerce and will continue to be a major part of any world that consists of trade. The market psychology that comes with it is also nothing new. People get overly exuberant and overly pessimistic at the worst times and that drives the demand side of the supply vs. demand equation to unrealistic levels. Once it gets too far one way or the other, it usually returns to a more normal state but at a pace that catches most people unprepared. When this is done on a large scale it is called a bubble. It is called a bubble because prices grow rapidly and, much like a bubble, from the insertion of air…much of it hot. When a bubble can take no more air yet more is introduced, the bubble pops and everything comes tumbling back to normal waiting for someone to stick their ring in a can of solution, blow real hard and start to create the next new bubble.

We have all experienced bubbles before and sometimes not even realized it. The recent increase and then decrease in the price of oil and gasoline is a great example. The tech stock market that took dot.coms to the stratosphere and then tanked in 2000 is another. The bubble that is getting us today is housing. In order to put this into perspective and compare it to the Great Depression, let us go back to that time and see what was happening.

Most will say that the stock market crash of 1929 triggered the Great Depression while others are looking at other factors such as the governments reactions (actions taken after the fact) as the major cause of the Great Depression. From what I have seen and read, I tend to fall in the later camp.

The stock market crash of 1929 had several factors that came into play but one of the key elements was that fact that you could buy stocks on margin. In other words, you could use debt, or borrow 90% of the price of a stock to purchase it. This is known as using leverage in the investing world. It works great as long as prices are going up. It can kill you when prices go down. Here is how it works.

You buy $100 dollars in stock but you only have to come up with $10 and your broker came up with the other $90. The price of your stock goes to $110 and you sell it. You pay back the broker his $90 plus some interest for borrowing his money, say $1. That leaves you with the remaining $9 as profit and since you only put up $10 of your own money you just made a 90% return on your investment. Pretty sweet deal and way better than the piddley amount you would earn in interest from the bank.

The boom market in stocks that started in the mid 1920’s was making many people very rich, and just like the gold rush it attracted many newcomers, some that knew what they were doing and many that didn’t. It seemed that anybody could invest and make big money, and many did. And when you saw your neighbor making easy money it was natural for you to want to do the same. Pretty soon everyone was trying to jump on the band wagon and make their fortune. Eventually, prices rose to a point that was ridiculous and unsustainable and they started to decline.

When prices decline, those that have leveraged are the ones that are hurt. When the $100 stock goes to $90, and you bought it on margin, you still owe your broker $90. If you sell the stock now and pay off the broker, (and don’t forget you owe him $91 to cover the cost of borrowing) you are left with nothing. Well you don’t want that to happen so you hold on thinking this is a temporary down turn and prices will be heading up again very soon. After all you made this investment to become rich like your neighbor, and everybody is doing it. Pretty soon however the price is $80 and your broker gives you a call and says he needs some money to cover the shortfall. You don’t have any money because you spent your last $10 buying this stock that was going to make you rich. The broker sells your stock and you owe him the difference.

As the broker sells your stock it puts more pressure on the prices and they continue to go down creating a spiral effect. Individuals have to pull money from the bank to pay off their debts. If the stock they bought is used as collateral for other purchases and the value of that collateral declines the other loans are in danger of going into default. As the defaults start in one area they can quickly expand, moving from one area to another by hitting one account and then another. As people scrambled to cover their newly acquired debt and save their personal finances from collapsing, it began to impact other people and business portfolios. They in turn had to struggle to save their finances from collapsing. One person’s pain began to be felt by all.

Now remember that this was nothing new and in reality it was quite common for markets to experience booms and bust. In fact, some areas of some markets have had greater price movements both up and down. Investors have made their millions and lost everything on many occasions and in many different markets even before there was a stock market. You can find books that will describe other markets such as the great tulip market of the 1600’s that went through these outlandish pricing periods. In fact there have been many markets in our lifetime that have experienced extreme boom and bust conditions. Our awareness of them is only brought about by our personal participation or the participation of someone we know. The really big ones are only well known because they impacted a large percentage of the population. Where was the media when you lost all that money on your cabbage patch doll and beanie baby collection?

As a result of the magnitude of the stock market price decline, the impacts spilled out into all aspects of the economy from banks to business to government. The madness of men and markets drove a typical price correction into a recession of large magnitude and that should have been the end of it but then it turned into a depression as a result of the actions taken by the government to correct the problem.

Now before you get me wrong, note that they did do some things right. The margin rates were cut so that investors were no longer able to buy stocks with 10% down. The current rate is 50% which some might think is still high but 2 for 1 is a lot less than 10 for 1. They also strengthened the banking system and regulations for oversight and increased the use of insurance for depositors to restore faith in the banking system.

Unfortunately, the Great Depression also allowed the government to introduce the New Deal. This was one of those giant knee-jerk reactions from government to fix the wrongs of man. What it did was introduce many of the Socialist policies and programs that we face today. It also launched a large “stimulus” package that tried to spend our way back to prosperity. Many would say that it extended the length of the depression many years past its natural length. I would have to agree. Much of the spending went into make work projects where efficiencies and effectiveness were not considered let alone any outcomes beyond the creation of jobs as the objective. We also created the world’s largest legal Ponzi scheme ever known to man…Social Security.

This government driven economy is the very idea we used to find so abhorrent in communist nations and would speak openly against. We used to think that nationalizing any industry was something that only happened in backward third world countries and if anyone even suggested such a thing people would start looking for a hanging rope. Laissez faire has oft been the slogan of a free nation.

Click here to continue to the new Great Depression Pt. 2. or Part 3.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

25 October 2008

Heads they win, Tails we lose

I am sorry to report that it is turning out to be just that kind of presidential race yet again this year. The two most likely candidates as spoken for by the media have once again reduced this race to finding reasons why not to vote for the other guy (as well as providing plenty of reasons not to vote for themselves). And once again, we the people have no viable options.

A word of warning to many of you that live in these United States of America, besides the obvious fact that our founding fathers would be turning over in their graves if they knew what we have allowed our nation to become by having an election of socialist and none other, but this nation has not wholly learned how to be a good winner or a good loser.

That worries me some. Events in our not so distant past have shown us that many of our citizens are not the most civilized at demonstrations of celebrations or disappointments. I think that we will once again see claims of an illegal election (as we did in 2004) no matter what the outcome. They are already planning for it. Riots are expected to break out in several major cities. Heck, this even happens when the local team wins a national sports competition, why not a national political competition.

That is sad when you think about it because we are already losing so much in this election year; the last thing we need to lose is our dignity. As there are a lot of people who are upset with the way things are going, they will be looking for any excuse to act out on those frustrations. I hope that any incidents like that will be small and insignificant.

If big incidents arise, and cities create riots and havoc it could spill over into our ever day lives. This is one week when you want to have all your shopping done ahead of time. You might even want to have enough food on hand to last a couple of weeks just in case things really fall to pieces. I am not saying that they will, but the possibility is out there for some locations to have disrupted services. I really hope it doesn’t come to that.

And it shouldn’t. There is no valid reason for things to get too bad. I know this election has stirred up emotions in people on all sides and to an extent not seen in many years. Here will be the real test of our character.

Whatever the outcome of this election the coming years will demand more attention on or parts. Attention to what the legislative, executive and judicial branches actions will be going forward. Will they think they have a mandate from the people and try to implement policies that go against what has made this country great? You bet they will, that is how our government has worked for many years. That is also why it is of the upmost importance to take a more active role in voice our opinions on issues and letting our elective officials know of our thoughts concerning upcoming legislation. If there is one thing that will sway the actions of a politician, it is the voice of the people as expressed through polls, phone, and mail.

Politicians may not agree with your position on the issues, but they tend to quickly give up their own positions if it is countered by more than one voice from their constituency. If they think they are only hearing a lone voice in the wilderness though, you can forget that you even made a sound.

An example of this was the initial $700 million dollar bailout package. The House waited until the last minute to make its vote, waiting to see how the votes would be placed to see if their vote would make a difference and then voted how best they thought the folks back home would value their action. They will always try to play both sides of an issue if they think they can get away with it. They knew that people would be watching this one though so they weren’t about to stick their necks on the line. They had to go back home and try to get reelected. Now they can go back home and tell one group of voters that they voted against the bailout of corporate greed and they can also tell another group of voters that they voted for the bailout to save the economy and keep Americans working, and in their minds, technically they did.

I often wonder how politicians can live with themselves or even get much sleep at night. Somehow they have convinced themselves that they are right no matter what it is they do. I don’t think their conscience works they way mine does. I tend to think that some politicians have lost their consciences a long time ago. That is why we need to step in and remind them that we haven’t lost ours. It is still a government of the people, by the people and for the people, and that means we have a responsibility that goes beyond one single Election Day. In the memory of our founding fathers, may we continue to make this ‘One Nation under God, indivisible, with Liberty and Justice for all.’

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

23 September 2008

Stop Congress from acting

We are faced with the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, or so they say. If Wall Street collapses Main Street will also, or so they say. If the government doesn’t step in and buy up all the bad mortgages then millions will lose their homes, or so they say.

The headlines and the talking heads have been heaping up a whole light of gloom and doom lately and in the wake we the American people and more especially the tax payer are headed for disaster. We can ill afford the plans being offered and the actions about to be taken. You cannot continue to cover up a mistake with a bigger mistake and hope no one will notice.

Let me present a simple little story to try to make a point. A local furniture store opens for business with the hope of making a profit by selling its wares to the local community. In the process they stock inventory that they hope will appeal to the local population. Some of it does and some of it doesn’t. Some of it is priced where the average person can afford it and some of it is priced way beyond the reach of the local community. Those things that appeal sell quickly while those that don’t sell are marked down to a price where they will sell. The business learns what the market wants, adjusts its inventory and repeats the process having found a formula that creates a long lasting relationship with the customer in the community.

Another furniture store opens for business and does a good job for awhile but management doesn’t understand the needs of the community. They stock inventory that suits their own desires and ideals and for awhile they see some sales but they begin to taper off. The furniture is just too expensive for what it is and the local economy can’t afford to splurge on these items even if they wanted the styles this store has to offer. As sales continue to fall, they finally reach a point where they can no longer stay in business. The last month the store has signs hung in the window that read ‘Going out of business Sale’ as they try to reduce their stock and payback their creditors. The final days see the owners taking any price on the remaining inventory in an effort to clear the books. The bargain hunters and shoppers find items finally at a price they can live with and clear out the remaining inventory of the store.

Meanwhile the successful store sees a slowdown in its sales temporarily as the ‘going out of business sales’ have taken away some of their shoppers. This only lasts for a little while though, as the successful business continues to provide their community with the right mix of product and price.

This is how business has worked in this country and around the world for years. That is what capitalism is about. Freedom to enter the market and exit the market as the market dictates. If you do things right you are rewarded, but if you do not get things right, you correct your methods or you go out of business. It works on a small scale and it works on a large scale.

If the government decided that the second furniture store should stay in business and decided to loan them enough money to pay their salaries and utilities and they stepped in and bought at full retail all the furniture they couldn’t sell, they could keep this company in business but only for as long as they were willing to pay for their salaries, utilities and buy their crappy inventory. If the company continued to operate the same way as they began it would take continued infusions to let them continue to exist.

Also, how fair is this to the first company? They also wish to remain in business but they have a plan that works and they have been successful in implementing that plan. They do not need the assistance or handout of government nor do they seek one. Is it fair for them to have to pay taxes that are transferred to their competitor just because he is not able to meet the needs of his customer? Is it fair to penalize the first company and reward the second? Is this the government’s role?

If we truly believe that America is great and want it to continue to be great, then we trust in those things that made it great. Freedom is one of them, Capitalism another. This is not a matter of scale, but rather of core values.

If the financial institutions have bad paper on their books then let them mark them down to true value and take the hit to the income statement. If they no longer want to own them, let them take them to the market place and get whatever price another is willing to pay. There is generally a market for everything; you just won’t necessarily like the price. If after selling off your bad inventory and you still find yourself in business then congratulations you are still alive and kicking. If after selling off your bad inventory and you don’t have sufficient cash flow to survive, then close shop, learn your lessons and start again.

Learning the lessons is not an easy thing to do. Some never learn. Some give up and never try again. Some try again but end up doing the same thing they did the first time. Some actually see what they did wrong; make adjustments and move on to bigger and better things. There must be consequences both for when we fail and when we succeed. This is America at its finest.

So what is wrong here, or should I say what are some of the things that are wrong here because there are many and that means there is not a simple single fix that will take care of everything.

As much as there is a cry against deregulation, that is not the problem. There is still more than enough regulation to choke a horse it just needs to be applied, consistently and equally to one and all, no favoritism. This runs throughout the financial world and many aspects of our economy.

The housing problem is a very large issue and one that has been compounded by previous bad responses. It is a market bubble with many providing the hot air to blow it up. Stemming from the last mortgage bail out of savings and loans with the RTC, the continued tax subsidizations that Congress passes to promote debt, and the tax laws that encourage and advantage those that speculate in real estate, it is no wonder that the bubble has ballooned to a point of explosion. If we continue with these proposed fixes then we are just slapping a band aid on the balloon and trying to force more air into the bubble.

All balloons can only hold so much air. There is only one way to find out how much it will hold, and after you find out, it will never hold that amount again. Then you are left looking for a new balloon.

Instead of all this governmental intervention to circumvent the markets, let’s make a way for the market to take over and work the way it was meant to. Let stability return to the market place naturally. Let the rules work naturally as they always seem to do no matter how much governments try to change them.

We will get through this. I just don’t want it to be harder than it has to be.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Energy solutions?

I have seen a couple of commercials lately that have caught my interest but then created disappointment and just a touch of anger. The two I am talking about are the ones espousing T Boone Pickens Plan and the other being the We Can Solve It group.

It seems like every other ad these days has an internet address attached to it for further information and in some cases the only way to find out any information about the company that is doing the advertising. In most cases, probably 98 times in 100 I don’t give the ad a second thought and very seldom if ever actually go to the web site. In fact I am almost anti web page advertising and actively ignore some of the more gimmicky ads like the one that starts you off on some adventure and then wants you to go to their web page to see what happens next. Sorry I haven’t done it yet and don’t intend to. I just don’t manipulate that way.

Curiosity did get the best of me on these two though because they are covering topics that I have had an interest in, or at least I thought I did.

As when American with a pulse knows the price of gasoline has gone up a little bit lately and it has caused some concern. T Boone Pickens, an oil man who has made a fortune from the oil industry is also concerned and has decided to put his money into letting us know of this concern and at the same time offer up a proposal on how to solve this dilemma we now face.

His proposals for the most part are sound with the stated goal of getting America to do some basic things that would significantly reduce our dependence on foreign oil. He suggest converting some of our transportation vehicles such as trucks and buses to run on natural gas which burns more cleanly and is a product that this nation has a rich abundance of.

This approach has a lot of merit but will take a little time and some commitment on people and companies willing to break some new ground. The infrastructure for refueling vehicles with natural gas is not nearly as abundant as it is for gasoline and diesel. As demand goes up so will the facilities. I have a friend right now that is converting to natural gas powered cars and he is loving it. He has to plan his fuel stops but when he fills up it only costs 8 or 9 dollars as compared to the 45 to 50 it has been costing me. He deserves those bragging rights.

The downside is planning a long cross country or even a short trip to grandmothers house will take extra effort to make sure there is fuel available along the way. There are some cars that are dual fuel machines and can run either or but most are single fuel choice. Another setback is the added weight for carrying the heavy high pressure tanks that hold the fuel. This will reduce the performance of the vehicle and I am including handling as part of that.

Another key ingredient to the plan is to really start harvesting one of the energy sources that America has an abundance of, namely the wind. We have all seen the pictures of big wind turbines and some of us have actually seen them in action. They can be quite impressive. Some of the wind farms are immense and make quite an impact by its presence. I have seen wind farms in the hills of California to the high Wyoming valleys. I have seen giant windmills on the hilltops of Greece from 35,000 feet wondering what they would look like at ground level if they where that easily seen from that height. I have seen large single windmills set within city limits and on military installations supplying energy to their communities. I have also seen small single units and testing units churning away producing energy. Each time a see a modern era windmill silently working away I am impressed.

I have often driven through the back country of America, for lack of a better term, and have past often old and forgotten windmills that used to serve the ultimate off the grid user, the ranchers and farmers of the west. These old windmills had one important function, bring the water from the well to the surface to water crops, livestock, and family.

There is so much potential for wind and I hope that it begins to be realized. If interest grows then technology advancements will also grow and increased efficiencies will be injected into the equation making the cost benefit analysis of wind a great alternative energy source. The one thing missing in most all of these arguments is a true comparison of costs.

I think that the cost issue may account for the lack of mentioning of photovoltaic or solar cell technology. Again though, as interest grows technology advances and possibilities increase.

More information about the Pickens Plan can be found at:

http://www.pickensplan.com/index.php

The other advertisement that has had a lot of airplay lately is a group of people taking about the current problems we are having with the high cost of oil but ends with the collective resolve that we can solve it by demanding action.

Before I go any further let me tell you up front what it took a very little digging to find out. This web site is a front for Al Gore and his politics. It is totally centered on his vision of the environment and his environmental manifesto. Just know that going in. I for one was greatly disappointed by this fact.

The commercial has great power in that it alludes to the people of this land banding together as individuals and making changes within their own lives and actions they can take that will lead to a ground swell change. The kind of changes made for individuals by individuals. Changes that come from ideas that are freely shared, and expanded upon by individuals, with the common goal of freeing ourselves from the oil crisis.

What you get is a call to become a political activist and demand Al Gore’s environmentalist programs be turned into Congressional mandates. He has already conned more than 1.5 million into signing up. This means he can weld some influence in Washington which is easily pushed over by such silliness. Do all of those that signed up on the web site really understand that they are giving their voice to the personal fancy of one man?

There are the solutions already mentioned but without any detail nor again any cost benefit analysis which is to be expected of a long term politician. It is easy to say we should enhance energy efficiency and adopt the use of renewable energy; it is a whole other ball game when you actually infuse it with a real plan of action. And that is where Al Gore fails. He wants to set the goal that sets the agenda and he wants others to figure out how to met his goal and then he can take credit for it while he calls it innovative leadership.

Al Gore’s web site can be found at:

http://www.wecansolveit.org

My biggest gripe for both of these movements and especially Al Gore’s is that they both call for government action. Both want government intervention to force and fund full implementation of their plans. That funding would come from taxpayer dollars and changes would be mandated is where these plans break down. If they are viable worthwhile goals, both economically and environmentally, (which I think they are), they should be able to be implemented directly without the need for government mandates, infusions, or interventions.

Of the two plans at least Pickens is putting some of his plan into real action by starting wind farms to harness and produce a real change. I can assure you that he will only do this as long as it is economically viable and that is the other reason for him to seek government subsidization, but a better way would be to continue to seek ways that would make it profitable on its own.

The last energy crunch of the 70’s created a surge in wind generators and solar cells that were heavily subsidized with tax breaks. Because the cost break even points were artificial, true cost benefits were not needed. The quality of the products that were rushed to market to fill the new tax subsidized industry were subpar and new technologies were not needed because existing or old tech would meet the rules for tax write off purposes. When the wind generators broke they sat there broke because it was not worth putting any money in to fix them.

I don’t want to see us head down that path again. We can’t afford to waste time and energy on more knee jerk reactions that continually shift the problem. We need real solutions from real people for real people, not government solutions for the masses. If the government would kindly leave some money in my pocket rather than continually confiscate it for ill conceived plans, then maybe I as a consumer could create an influence through my actions and choices that would make a real difference. Maybe I could afford to support by investing in a wind farm of my own, or at least buying a solar system for my house. One that put money back into my pockets because of savings and sell back would make it all the more sweet. That is where you start and that is how you make it work.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

23 August 2008

Biden, really?

Obama chose Joseph Biden to be his running mate? Really? This truly is a socialist ticket from the socialist party.

I can't think of one good thing Biden has ever done but I do know that my memory has him associated with some pretty terrible legislation. Hopefully that will come out but I am sure the media love feast will continue and the kid gloves will be extended to one and all.

No really, is Obama trying to lose the race? I mean I can understand why he wouldn't want to have a Clinton on the ticket (too much baggage for even Charles Atlas to carry), but is the pool of Democratic socialist so thin that this is the best he could come up with?

Perhaps I should stop here because an old phrase is running through my head. If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all. I know I am unable to follow that all the time and when it comes to opinions shouldn't, but what if the rest of the media followed that saying just a little bit more themselves? The local and national news hours might last about three minutes, (and that is after the two minute commercial break).

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

14 July 2008

Congress has lost all control

I just noticed that Congress is in the process of passing a bill to help fight AIDS globally. This doesn’t sound too bad on the face of it but when you see the price tag, the shock is too much to handle. $50 Billion dollars over the next 5 years and that does not include the add-ons that always seem to make their way into any congressional action. This is on top of the current 5-year bill expiring in September that spent $15 Billion dollars. That is BILLION with a capital B.

This has gotten to the scale where the old phrase ‘Here a million, there a million, pretty soon you’re talking about real money’ seems like the good old days. If this isn’t a shining example of a government that has completely lost its senses I don’t know what is. Congress no longer has any ties to reality. And evidently neither do the American people as there is no public outcry against this waste of taxpayer monies. There is hardly any mention of this so it is probably not widely known. In fact there were more news articles listed for ‘cats vs. coyotes dispute at Cal State Long Beach’ than a mega mega budget item from Congress. 26 articles to 16.

I will be honest here and state that I would still be upset if we were talking about $50 million dollars over 5 years because we would still be talking about spending way too much money inappropriately. The US government should not be in this business and many others. That it has obligated the American people’s future for things that it has no business doing and for amounts that are obscene should be criminal. At the very least we should hold them accountable and get them out of office.

The biggest problem we face is not the taking down the working man through taxes, but the out of control spending by our government that plagues the common taxpayer. There is the fact that the current tax structure is inequitable but that can be solved. I will present the Nef Tax Plan later to show how. The spending problems of our legislature seem a much larger task to tackle, and at this point not even Dr. Phil could make a dent in changing their deviant behavior.

The Democrats have being calling for change and they control the House and Senate and this is representative of what we are seeing; more of the same irresponsible acts. This one is also supported by Republicans and Pres. Bush which continues to make me think that there really are no differences and we only see two sides of the same coin.

When there are so many other actions that Congress could take that would elevate this nation and strengthen its position as a leader of nations, bending to the pressures of special interest groups and political correctness to this extend is truly embarrassing. Perhaps Congress should be listening to another voice for a change. Perhaps we should be the ones to provide it. In an effort to save our nation and our futures, perhaps the time is now.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.