Amazon ratings warning

I had heard a comment about this before concerning the Amazon Fire Phone where the ratings started out on the rough side and later when they were trying to clear out the old stock with a sale, they cleared the star ratings and basically started over in an attempt to get a better star rating.  I saw this but wondered if it had anything to do with the phone being pulled from the market for a period before giving it one more effort.  They brought it out with a much better price and threw in a year of Amazon Prime for less than half the original introductory price.

If this was merely a second attempt to market the phone and/or a version 2.0 of the phone, then it would make sense to make this the equivalent of a new product and deserving of a new star rating but if it was not, and the fact that they were still listing a rather large number of total reviews given just days after the reset, then they were playing games.

I have read others mention that this was happening and for items other than just the Fire Phone but didn't take a lot of heed.  I couldn't believe, or didn't want to believe that Amazon would do this.  Besides this seemed like a numbers game that others might play but not our tried and true Amazon.

Then I got an e-mail that talks about saving big on Xfinity Internet.  Always looking for a deal I clicked to see and was met with the opening visual:

At first glance it doesn't look too bad other than the price is kind of high for a measly 25 Mbps and excluding equipment, install, taxes and fees.  Go faster and it gets worse.  Still it looks like 916 customers have given it an average of 4 stars.  Pretty good by normal ratings standards.  Remember that on a scale of 1 to 5 the median is 3 and not half of 5 or 2.5.

Now after the first impression, you being the savvy shopper you are, you look down the screen to see what some of those reviews actually say and then com across this:

Initially it is still looking good.  Sure 3.8 is not the full 4 stars that it shows being filled in but 3.8 is still a good way to the higher side of middle ground.  But wait a minute.  86% of the 916 reviewers gave it a one star.  If you have read many reviews you will know that the only reason for some to give a one star review is because they have no way to give them a zero star review.

So let's do some math.  Don't worry, I will keep it simple.
916 * 86% = 788 then times 1 equals 788
916 * 2%  = 18 then times 2 equals 36
916 * 2% = 18 then times 3 equals 54
916 * 2% = 18 then times 4 equals 72
916 * 8% = 73 then times 5 equals 365

Double check 788+18+18+18+73 = 915  within one is better than government.
Now add 788+36+54+72+365= 1,315 for total stars given

so that means if we take the total stars and divide by the number of reviews we should get the real star rating of 1,315/916 = 1.435589519650655 or rounded out to 1.4 stars.  By the way, even if I throw in the extra person to make it a full 916 and give the benefit of the doubt that the missing count would have given a full 5 stars the number still rounds to 1.4 (1.441048034934498 to be exact).

Wait a minute, they calculated it to be 3.8 and rounded it to 4 when filling out the stars to display.  What gives Amazon?  Real math doesn't even come up to half that amount.

Is this just really bad math, somebody falling asleep at the wheel, or are you playing games because you have a deal going with Xfinity that is paying you to push their product on your web site and through you customer's via their e-mails.  If the later, then this is major league bogus, deceptive and fraudulent and should be beneath you or any business that desires to deal from a place of integrity.  If this is an innocent mistake then you have got other problems that need to be addressed and corrected quickly.

I understand that stuff can happen, typos occur and sometimes mistakes are just that.  If it starts to happen often or you start to hear examples coming from more than a few minor sources, it may indicate a trend or a change in policy that may negatively impact the relationship between a company and its customers.  I am not ready to make the call just yet because I have had a pretty good relationship with Amazon myself but this is worth watching to see where it goes form here.  If I were an investor looking at the company, I would definitely want to know more.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

Tsu I hardly knew ya

You might remember that I recommended a new site called Tsu some time ago.  It is one of those sites that took me away from many other things.  Sadly it is no more.

It made great promises of revenue sharing with those that contributed content which was a great concept and I imagine some actually made a few bucks as they testified to the fact on the site.

It was also a great way for me to experiment with a social networking site similar to Facebook but with the potential to reap some reward from your original content.  I was certainly intrigued enough to go for it and made a few connections along the way.

A lot of the content became very similar to what others had and did and there was a whole lot of copy and paste and share from others and initially that was okay because that was a way to be introduced to others on the site.  After awhile it was not invigorating enough but you could still happen on to some wonderful nuggets now and then.

It grew fast, fast enough that it scared Facebook into pulling any mention of it from their site for a time before they were pressured to put those mentions back.  You could see new members come and make many post with much enthusiasm and attention.  You could also see those new members fall to the way side as the promises of payout were not big enough soon enough to convince them to stay.  But the model was valid and the promises were possible very much like network marketing.

But then they changed.  (see the previous post and you will know what I am talking about)

They change the payout formula, they changed the way you could interact with others, and then they changed the whole web face and format so that your pages and your community took a back seat to the site itself.  Tsu took center stage and was now only willing to share the spotlight with any outside of its controlled group.  I am sure that was the beginning of the crash.  A couple of months later and the web page became a letter saying thank you but we are done, pick up your belongings.

Not the first Web site to die, not the last.  Regrets? Not really other than a good idea gone sour.  I did learn from it and I did enjoy the ride even if I was not one that made it pay.  Actually it did pay because as I said I did learn from it and I did enjoy the ride.  Payment enough sometimes.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

So why making a slow buck on the internet?

I spent a lot of time in casinos in my younger years.

"Are you a betting man Drebin?"  "Only when I order out."

No I am not a gambler but I found the whole thing fascinating.  The money, the action, the people, the business, the marketing, the attitude...I became a student that tried to understand all of it.  Also if I could figure it out maybe I could make it pay...but that didn't happen.

One thing I did learn one night while watching some blackjack at Ceaser's Palace is that those playing at the $100 table where playing in exactly the same way as those that were playing at the $1 table at the Frontier down the street.  In other words the game was the same, the rules were the same, the players were the same, the only difference was a matter of scale.

This was at a time when the 'morons that be' figured they could devalue the dollar and it would improve the balance of trade, but there was a lot more wrong that needed fixing before any meaningful change would happen on that front.  We wanted the Japanese to buy a Chrysler or two but it was cheaper for them to buy the Chrysler building than the car...but that is another story for another time.

The point here is that if you want to win at blackjack you need to learn the rules, tips, tricks and strategies to win at blackjack.  If that is your intent then spend whatever it takes while in the learning stage but by all means spend wisely until you have it figured out.  Remember that the beginning player at the $1 table was learning the same lessons as the beginning player at the $100 table; the final bills for that education just had different totals at the end of the day.

Once you have it figured out then you move in and prove it.  Once you have proved it then you scale up and reap the rewards of your efforts.  If you try to do this out of order it can be vary costly both in time and resources and you might run out of one or both before you reach your goal.

For those that are interested in investing in stocks or commodities or whatever, it is often suggested to the student to begin by doing paper trading.  This is where one goes through the motions of doing the activity in simulation mode first...act as if you are making the trade by recording a buy and sell on paper...no real money changing hands.  You can measure you results positive and negative and determine if your skills are sufficient to make things work in the real world.

Once you are comfortable with your paper trading and the results on paper are giving you a pretty good idea that you are actually able to trade profitably then you get an account and do it for real but at an affordable level, this will validate your efforts.  If your account grows, and not just from injections of fresh capital, then you have something that works for you and you can begin to scale up.

If it isn't working your results will tell you this to.  If it isn't working it is time to stop and go back one step, figure out why, fix it or change it and try something different, then move forward again.

So the paid to click sites I referred to is a no cost, time only effort to step into a lesson plan that can help us learn how to make a buck, internet or otherwise.  Just like the player sitting at the $1 table we can learn some of the lessons and principles that work no matter what level you are playing at.  It is these lessons that I will try to address with future post.

As there isn't a great deal of followers to this blog at this point it might just be me teaching myself but if you are willing to tag along I hope you enjoy.  A smart man learns from his mistakes while a wise man learns from the mistakes of others.  With that said there are some lessons that can be learned from others but there are many lessons that can only be learned through doing.  I can read all about running a marathon but until I actually run one I will never truly know.  That is the reason to offer up the referrals I did.

By the way, I don't intend on running a marathon at the moment but you never know.  This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

Making another slow buck on the internet

If you read my last post you know that I have been surfing the internet to find ways to make a quick buck and finding that to be mostly bunk I started looking for any worthwhile ways to make any money on the internet, in particular making the slow buck on the internet.

It mostly comes from doing some of the same things you would anyway such as searching, playing games, being exposed to endless ads but with a little effort you can actual make a little pocket change for your time.  It sure beats doing it for nothing, or even worse paying for the privilege.

My latest find is one I came across a couple of years ago that was o.k. then but it has gone through some changes and came out slightly better and now worth mention.

If you are not where you want to be now, and you know it, then you will have to change.  Change is not always easy and it does take effort but if you have the desire and it is strong enough you will make the change that you are after.  Even if it means doing homework.  Are you willing to do what it takes to change into whatever it is you are seeking, be it gaining health, losing weight, building wealth, adding knowledge, changing attitudes?

If you wish to work on your wealth you may need to change some of your thought processes.  The popular book Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Richard Kiyosaki, has one major premise I really like; namely that rich people think differently than poor people.  I have found that to be true.  It doesn't take much more than a conversation with your co-workers to realize this.

If you are surrounded by the attitude that "money is evil", "I could be rich if only I compromised my principles", "rich people are lucky or cheaters", or any other like sentiment that keeps you in the "I will never, could never be..." mode, then maybe you need to change your thought patterns and attitudes.

I am not talking about having blind, misapplied optimism but having some positive optimism is not a bad place to start.  It is hard to have a positive attitude if you fill your head with normal drivel that is contained in the typical editorial pages, nightly news, and most talk radio programs.  If your thought diet consist of only these things then daily scriptures and weekly church attendance may not be enough to buoy you up.  You need to expose yourself to a lot of offsetting good to overcome all that depressing noise.

Well one of those things that helps change your thinking in a good way is to listen to others that are thinking the way you want to be thinking,  Expose yourself to others that are interested in becoming healthier, wealthier, wiser.  Those that have the traits you would like to obtain can provide an example to follow for which you can learn from.  By learning how they see the world around them and how they deal with daily problems, we may learn some new techniques that will help us deal with our daily problems.  Big fat hairy deals might just become a little smaller with an adopted change in perspective.

One site with a view on the being wealthier front is Marshal Sylver's GetRichRadio.com, and you can join using my referral at http://getrichradio.com/join/17026.  Give it a try and as with most things I recommend, it cost you nothing unless you want it to, but I like the part that cost us nothing while still can getting something worthwhile.

Marshal Sylver's GetRichRadio pays you to listen to his online radio program.  Granted they pay you in scholarship dollars and they are highly inflated.  You can save up to $250,000 and cash it out into $50 real dollars through pay pal or you can use the scholarship dollars to buy education programs that are offered on the web site.  These programs cover things like marketing, real estate investing, auctions, sales, probate, business credit, and stuff like that including one labeled what would a millionaire do?

This is where the real value is.  If you haven't been exposed to these kinds of programs it may open you to a whole new world.  If have been exposed and always wanted to try some of these programs but were not willing to pay those over the top prices...well now you can and do it all using the house's money.

You get paid $50 per hour to listen to getrichradio once you have registered and also a matching amount from those you refer.  Just let the program run in the background while you do something else, like build your swagbucks account, and soon enough you will have more than enough in your getrichradio account to get a program or two.  And through it all you will expand your knowledge and work on that change of attitude that will help you move in the desired direction.

I admit that much of what I have heard here is a regurgitation of things I have heard before but repetition has served me well, especially when it reinforces an idea from a different perspective.  Sometimes you have to go through a lot of earth to find a few nuggets but nuggets are kind of what we are after.

Sometimes you never know where your next discovery will come from so it is worth having a curious nature and a thirst for knowledge.  I love to explore and have found this site one worth spending some time on.  Give it a try.  I don't agree with everything he says but I have found some things that are worth listening to.

As always, this is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

Making a slow buck on the internet

There are get quick schemes out there on the internet and most aren’t worth the time spent reading through the hype.  There are few ways to make slow money out there, you just have to invest time and a little effort to see some results.  Be forewarned, those results won’t allow you to quite your day job anytime soon, but it will allow a little extra spending monies for some of the little things you might need or enjoy.  I will tell you about the top three that have worked for me.

All of these are some form of click to earn sites; that is you earn points for doing searches, playing games, watching videos, taking surveys, shopping or just plain watching commercials…and believe me you will be exposed to lots and lots of advertisements.  They also have referral programs which pay you a bonus if someone you refer joins so if you would like to try them out please use the links.

#3.  IRAZOO--I have mentioned this one before and have had a few payouts from it, just not consistently.  They have changed the rules frequently and the payout comes slowly but with minimal effort you can earn a $5 gift card every 2 to 3 months.  This is really making a slow buck on the internet but combining it with the others it will add up over time.  Also with this as my number 3 it should give a pretty good indication of what the rest of these types of site out there are like, in other words be careful and read all of the fine print.  You have to be referred to join so click here for IRAZOO. (or http://www.irazoo.com/ReferedNewUser.aspx?RefBy=farrwest).

#2. BING– Yes the same Bing that is part of the MSN group and trying so hard to compete as your main web browser has a program where you can earn points for your searches.  Every day you can make 30 searches which will earn you 15 points plus they have a special search or two worth a point each.  Sometimes they will have days where you can earn double the daily point limit.  15 points a day doesn’t seem like much but it can add up to a $5 gift card to Amazon about once a month.  Bing doesn’t take a lot of time or effort, is consistent, pays out quickly and has worked well for me.  I wish they would expand the program beyond just searches with other point earning offers but it is because of what they do that I do recommend them.  You can add a search bar to your Internet Explorer (which it prefers but you can also use Firefox) for extra ease.  Use this link if you would like to try BING. (or http://www.bing.com/explore/rewards?PUBL=REFERAFRIEND&CREA=RAW&rrid=_95a992a4-7aa7-0195-b0d8-087fa58f6722).

#1. SWAGBUCKS –You may have heard of them before and they seem to be the real deal.  This one doesn’t have the limits (other than running out of offers) that the others do.  You can earn as much as you are willing to spend time on but more realistically you should shoot for the daily goal which is around 100 points a day.  If you are consistent this can translate into $30 or more in gift cards a month.  If you are ambitious it can be much more.  Use this link if you would like to try SWAGBUCKS. (or http://www.swagbucks.com/refer/c5ed).  I have done a lot of looking and this seems to be the best of its kind out there and has been for several years.  I have added a couple of hundred dollars to my Amazon account with Swagbucks…very nice

If you decide to do any of these here are my top suggestions, 1. Read and follow the rules carefully.  It is their game and they make the rules and if you follow them you will be successful, if you don’t you risk getting terminated.  2. Get a new junk e-mail account and use it to sign up.  If you click on any offers at these sites use this new junk e-mail account and just expect that there will be junk mail coming.  That way you won’t plug up your regular e-mail account and we can still be friends.

Some friends from work got competitive and were really racking up the points so if you set some goals (like a new game console, Blue ray player, TV???) and invite your friends to do this also you might enjoy some building fruits from your efforts.  I must warn you though, this can be addicting and you may lose track of time and end up spending way too much time on this.  Self control is required, both for your family and your sanity.

Anyway you go at least have fun doing it.  Good luck on your way to fame and fortune.  I will follow this up with a how I do it post later but for now this is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

iRazoo do you, or do I?

Have you heard of iRazoo? In my effort to find new ways to be compensated for wasting my time on the internet and providing a second or third or even thirtieth supplemental income I happened onto a web site called iRazoo, and as all things such as these I will pass on my findings to let you know if it is worth it or just a waste of time.

iRazoo is a new search engine web site that adds a twist of earning points with each search and letting its users provide feedback on the usefulness of the site through comments and a vote of yes or no to recommend a site also earning points. These points can then be traded in for toys or gift certificates. Seems simple enough but how does it deliver.

First off you will notice that as a search engine it is kind of weak. It will pull in sites for you but it is quite a mix with many entries seeming far off target. In fact they look like plants (paid advertisements) that have little to do with the subject at hand. That means that you will not be using this site as an alternative to do your regular searches. So the real use of this site is to gain points and earn stuff.

Points are relatively easy to earn, in fact it was so easy that they changed the rules within days of my joining. It seemed that some would just hit the site, grab points and move on without any seriousness in evaluating the recommended sites, so they added a timer which means you cannot vote for a site until 30 seconds have past. That is o.k. because the site comes up in a new tab, and while you are waiting for the 30 seconds to pass, you simply go back to the search page and click on another site to open up, and another one after that.

Update: They will only let you open one searched page tab at a time now so no multi-tasking means it will take 3X as long.

Three is the limit however as you can only earn points on three sites per search term used, and that is not a daily limit, that appears to be for all time. That means you have to get tricky if you want to search on a topic you are familiar with. For example, you might look for ‘Mini 500’, ‘helicopter’, ‘mini 500 helicopter’, ‘mini helicopter’, ‘500 mini’, ‘500 helicopter’… anyway you get the picture. Also each page can only be used once for points so you will have to choose carefully. Notice I did say page and not site so each page on the site can bring you points.

The three click limit is very…well limiting. Again, as a search engine iRazoo is less than stellar for those that know there are thousands and millions of web sites out there for just about any topic and to hold yourself to just the first three is rather silly.

The next limit that you will become familiar with is the daily earning limit which is currently set at 300 points per day. Because of the way the points are paid out, 8 here and 8 there, I don’t think I have hit an exact 300 yet. 300 divided by 8 gives you 37.5 so I always have a number that leaves me short and it doesn’t look like it will pay you partial points to fulfill your max. This just means it takes you longer to reach a prize level.

So what are the prize levels, or in other words, how long will it take to get something for nothing? First thing to remember is that there is very seldom a something for nothing; you are trading your time, interest, and feedback if nothing else. Even with the layered multi opened page approach I use it takes about 20 to 30 minutes to max out my points (your mileage may vary). In the iRazoo advertisements they say that you can earn a prize in as little as 10 days but that has to be 11 now since you can’t reach a full 300 point day to make the 3,000 point minimum prize level in 10 days.

So what do you get for your 3,000 points of effort? A $5 gift certificate to Amazon. Now you will have to run the numbers for yourself and decide if 5 hours worth of effort over an 11 day period is worth a $5 gift certificate but $1 per hour hardly seems worth the time, especially if the usefulness of the search engine just isn’t there.

If you wish to accumulate your points there are higher prizes to be had such as a Nintendo Wii, Playstation 3 40gb, or Xbox 360 60gb for 100,000 points. An unlocked 16gb iPhone can be had for 600,000 points (that’s 2,000 days or 5.479 years for those that are counting). Or you good just hold out for the $25 Apple iTunes music card for 18,250 points (about 61 days work).

Can you get more points and can you get there faster? Yes, sort of. Two ways are offered, one is that there will be banners appearing for which you can take up an offer or buy product and the sponsor will credit you with points, eventually, (allow 6 to 8 weeks…you know the drill) and in the mean time you have given you info out to yet another someone on the web and possibly some hard earned dollars for a product you might not really have wanted for which there are plenty of other sites to get rebates on your purchases. If you can’t tell, I don’t think I trust the banners.

The other way to get points on iRazoo is to put a link to iRazoo on your web page about iRazoo or tell a friend about iRazoo so that they can join iRazoo and take advantage of this thrilling iRazoo search engine web site by joining iRazoo themselves and earning their own iRazoo points and iRazoo rewards, and for each person that joins iRazoo based on your sponsorship and promotion of iRazoo you will receive 50 iRazoo points and the person referred will also receive 50 iRazoo points. So feel free to click on any of the hyper linked mentions of iRazoo and you can play iRazoo also. Did I mention that only half of your points used can come from iRazoo referrals’, yet another limit placed on your iRazoo efforts at iRazoo.


Although I haven’t been on iRazoo very long, maybe a month or so, (it has been a busy month) and I certainly haven’t been on it every day, I am up to 2,418 points and am working on my first Amazon gift card. Why, I don’t know. I just want to see if it works for one thing and the pursuit of something for nothing still intrigues me. I also can’t tell you how quickly they pay out or how true to their word they are because I haven’t hit that spot yet either. They do have a promo going where you can win a search and win $5 Amazon gift certificate but I haven’t won one yet, and I’m not holding my breath.

One more suggestion for those willing to try, leave your radio or TV on in the back ground so when you are drawing a blank on what to do for the next search word just use the first word or phrase you hear coming out of the radio or TV. Do this carefully though, for it might be a word from a commercial that you really aren’t too anxious to learn more about.

Now that I have taken the ground work for you, it is up to you to decide if it is worth it for you. If I get one gift card I will be happy but I will also move on to hopefully bigger and better things. And as I continue to look for them I will continue to share my findings with you.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

The automakers dilemma

I have been thinking a little bit about the auto industry lately and the mess they have made for themselves. I can't say that I am surprised by a lot of this. I am very disappointed however.

I am a car nut, an enthusiast even and for the car industry to turn to the very establishment that helped put them in this predicament is truly a situation that will create many a business school doctorate thesis for years to come. What possible good can come from this?

I could be saying I told you so, but I had a hard time finding anyone to tell. No one was listening. The American car makers have had major problems for several decades now, not just the last couple of quarters. They have been given their wake up calls on more than one occasion.

Sure some within the industry heard and heeded the call and some were able to come up with some really good and compelling products. Strides were made in quality improvement but not across the board and not enough to convince consumers that they had caught up with or passed the competition. There were glimmers of hope interspersed with packets of ‘more of the same’.

I feel sorry for anyone that has to turn to the government for a handout or subsidy. Sad to say we all are in that boat now and there doesn’t seem to be any turning back. As those who have had their hands outstretched for a gimme have recently found out, these government handouts come with strings attached. Some are o.k. with that while others prefer their independence. Some are beginning to have regrets.

So what do I make of the current state of affairs for the three? First Chrysler, which lost its way once and found it only to lose it, again, is perhaps in the weakest position of all. It is not currently being run by car guys though it seems to have many car guys within its workings. The shotgun wedding to Fiat seems inevitable if those holding the shotguns have their way, but I think it would be a mistake. Chrysler would do better to maintain its independence and build from its strengths. In order to do that it would need capital, true business management, and leadership with vision. These three components it lacks and therefore I see Chrysler fading away into oblivion even if a merger with Fiat is accomplished.

Second is General Motors, a company that is too big to know which way it is headed and too big to change the direction it is headed even if it wanted to. GM is the prime example of why mergers and acquisitions do not always work in the auto industry. Companies are created for a variety of reason but they all tend to try and differentiate themselves somehow, in other words, not all hamburger joints are McDonalds. Each company in order to do business will come up with its own solution to a consumer need and present it to the buying public. If successful it thrives but if not it goes back to the drawing board or goes away. Some companies will have a few outstanding ideas but will be lacking the rest of the components such as marketing, production, administration and such that make up a well rounded business. These are the companies that become prime targets for a takeover, not to obtain the company but to obtain the patents on the great ideas and incorporate them into your own product line. Many a merger has been done to obtain legal rights rather than finding synergies.

The problem in a merger comes when you try to combine two different cultures, as eventually they will also merge and become one and the same. As this happens, the setting that was the perfect ground to cultivate that great idea slowly fades into the mother company, the same company that was unable to create the idea in the first place and had to buy the other company to acquire. This is very evident in the GM of the 80’s when you the term ‘cookie cutter car’ was coined to describe the fact that all too many cars looked and acted exactly the same. The fact was they were exactly the same with exception of the name badgeing and a few accent trim pieces. You could find the same vehicle at Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, Oldsmobile, and on occasion Cadillac. Take a look at the pickup offerings from Chevrolet and GMC to see the most obvious example of sameness.

So what does this mean exactly? It means that the accountants and management took control of decision making for future product and decided that it would be less expensive and more profitable to develop one car and put several different labels on it thereby getting two (or three or four) items for the price of one. Sounds good on paper right? It doesn’t work out that way and here is why. Instead of developing and providing to the consumer two (or three or four) solutions to their needs, you have presented one solution and just changed the packaging. This is not an alternative solution to their needs; therefore competition can come in and offer a true difference. Consumers eventually will become savvy enough to know that when they are comparing solutions, they need only look at one of GMs offerings (rather than each one individually) and compare it to what the rest have to offer. And they wonder why their market share has dropped off.

GM has already killed off some of its brands, Oldsmobile is no longer for example. Is it missed, yes and no. If Oldsmobile were still here today wouldn’t it look just like Chevrolet, Pontiac, and Buick? Other than the slight visual clues for demographics they are one and the same. If they close Pontiac or Buick will they really be giving up that much? When Chrysler shut down the Plymouth name was there really much of an impact? They all have histories and we have fond memories of special cars from the past but was there any guarantee of recreating the magic of those one or two items?

So what is GM proposing to do to salvage itself but cut off some of the acquisition lines that gave it some distinction, namely Saturn, Hummer, Saab. Rather than working to make these somewhat independent lines profitable (and not being an insider it is hard to tell if they were or were not profitable) they have decide to cut them loose. This will create a very shallow corporation with dwindling product line with which to compete going forward. And as the product line going forward will now be determined by divine government intervention which will make decision not based on sound business doctrine but by political correctness, it is hard to say if there will even be a GM 5 to 10 years from now. Do you think the fun cars like Corvette and Camaro will even stand a chance of seeing a next generation under these conditions?

So that leaves us with Ford, the only hold out to the handout. I have to admire that and for that alone give them a standing ovation. I am sure there was a lot of pressure to bow. So Ford becomes the last hope for an American original. It is facing the same problems and constraints that the others are of underfunded pension plans, bureaucratic red tape, poor management, conformist and homogenized product line but it at least seems to be working from a plan and fighting for its continued independence. For this there is hope.

Fords product line is sufficiently diverse in the near term though they have the same problem of cross teaming between their Ford/Lincoln/Mercury lines. They have worldwide ties that should help enormously with product development if used prudently, the future 2011 Ford Fiesta is a prime example. (Ford if you are listening, please don’t over Americanize this car for our country. The European version sounds like the one I would want to own and drive.) The company still has a unique identity and some products still retain character such as the Mustang.

I do not understand the current design direction though. What is it with the 3 big flat chrome piece grill work? It is pathetic and reminiscent of the creased line loot the Art and Technology boys did that made me lose all interest in a Cadillac. I hope it is a short lived fade. They also added it to the full size vans as you can see. This is what being hit with an ugly stick does to you. Why do I always think of the station wagon in National Lampoons Vacation movie when I see these multi-level light treatments? Please run these design changes past someone that has taste before putting them out there?

Will Ford make it? It is hard to say for the same reasons it is hard to say if the other two will or not. The only reason Ford held out is that they had more cash on hand to allow them to stay in the game a little longer. How long it can last is anyone’s guess. I hope they all survive, because I don’t like to see anyone fail for one thing and because I think the open competition is good for the industry and the consumer. We all benefit from the raised bar.

The final note that should be made is that these are not the only American car makers today even if they get all the attention as if they were. Cars made in America include Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, Tesla and others. Are they entitled to equal consideration, or are some ‘animals more equal than others’ in this Obama Nation? Will the rules apply equally to all and apply to all equally? And will those rules be the rules of business with the freedom to succeed and the freedom to fail based on the dictates of the marketplace or will the rules change yet again to fuel the fancy of a few? Time will tell as we wait and watch.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Three Stooges redone???

So Hollywood is at it again. Since they are so hard pressed to come up with any original ideas, they are easily sold on doing repackaging of current hits, sequels, or doing remakes of old classics. It is the remaking of old classics that I have had the most problems with. 9 times out of 10 they can't do it. The old classics are true classics that only work with actors, action and story lines that come within the context of the era. Very few actors are capable of recreating the magic of a past era let alone pulling off a credible re-creation of a past master. A poster of the Mona Lisa from the gift shop is not the same thing as the original. (I hesitate to use this example as many suspect that the Mona Lisa that so many enjoy at the Louvre is actually a reproduction. I guess that just shows that there is always a market for those that don't know any better or can't tell the difference.)

So what possible remake could they do that would cause enough of a stir to deserve a comment? It seems the Farrelly brothers, who I am guessing are big fans of the original and want to find more of the magic they once knew, are redoing the Three Stooges. All I can say is that if you are really fans of the original icons, then please do not do this. You will try to modernize it and then have it go through the Hollywood politically correctness department and before you know it you have disaster on your hands.

Case in point is the proposed cast of Jim Carrey, Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn. Jim Carrey has enough talent that he is the only possibility (given the right team of writers, directors, other cast members, etc.) of pulling something like this off. I would prefer to see him doing something new, fresh and original that would draw on all his strengths but this is Hollywood and we shouldn't expect so much.

The other two are where we cement the disaster. Benicio is a face I recognize but I can't for the life of me associate it with anything remotely labeled as greatness especially in the comedy category. He is a fine actor and can serve up a decent supporting role but this role would be a stretch for anyone. Sean Penn on the other hand hasn't done anything worthwhile of late, and some would argue ever. This is one of the many examples of overrated personalities that somehow manage to continue to find work in show business.

I just pulled is bio on IMDB and he has been involved in a lot of things, it is an impressive resume, at least for volume. I still remember the movie 'The Pledge' as one of the absolute worst pictures at that time only to find out at the end that he was the producer and director. How sad for me (I lost 2 hours and the price of admission). His recent stuff tends to play to the Hollywood insider crowd and that was enough to win him an Oscar promoting the homo sexual agenda. Yet another example of why I do not follow the award ceremony anymore, they've lost their way and are no longer concered about the movies and the entertainment industry.

By the way, I was reading some of the comments that came with the news article, and they were not flattering concerning the casting call nor were they even remotely kind for the selection of Sean Penn. There are a lot of people that feel Sean Penn has been anti-American in many of his comments and actions of late and it shows in the feedback to this announcement of his selection. If this industry still fashions itself to be a business, I would think two and three times before adding him to the cast. The type of audience this movie should be geared towards will actively boycott the Penn selection while the type of audience that Sean Penn would normally attract do not get and well not understand or appreciate the Three Stooges. I would do a quick rethink before too much money has been invested; try to salvage what you can.

That is what makes it all the more strange to pick these three as Hollywood is all about playing it safe when it comes to making big ticket movies and by that I mean they don't take very many chances on unknown quantities. They are pretty good at rehashing (or should I say 'paying tribute too') old story lines and ideas. The vaults are full of examples and the new releases just confirm it. I watched Bolt yesterday and couldn't count how many times I thought of the T.V. show Animaniacs, ('Now that's comedy). Bolt shows that you can take a classic or at least elements of the classic and create a parallel product that can be entertaining without smashing the toes of the original. I still really wish they would have made a Mission Impossible “like” movie with Tom Cruise rather than an actual Mission Impossible movie. It was a fair movie that could have stood on its own but it is in no way related to the T.V. show that made the title famous.

So my suggestion to you Farrelly brothers, throw away the title and the names of the characters, unless you just use them as a working title. Just like there are tribute bands that play in appreciation of the bands they love and the music they enjoy, call this a tribute movie because it will not be the original and there are far too many fans that will know it. Create a movie "like" the Three Stooges would make if they were still around but use your own characters and your own story and give it a new name and title and look. And if you ‘have to’ use Sean Penn, please keep him in the background and at least try to make him funny and not just a laughing stock. My biggest question now is will they use a laugh track. Will they need one?

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Too good to be true, Part 2.

You may have read my other e-mail about “Too good to be true?” where I shared with you an e-mail offer that promised a large chunk of money if I would assist the person in moving some money from a long forgotten bank account out of the country and into my account. Evidently I was not the only one to receive this fabulous offer as some of you let us know that you also saw this same thing. You were smart and decided to check it out before getting caught and taken by that scam. Good for us.

Well I got another e-mail that just looks too darn good to be true. What do you think? Here it is as it came to me. Note the wonderful English and typing skills.

International Certified Bank Draft.
Thursday, March 5, 2009 10:59 AM
From:
"Mr. Jess Williams."
To:
My Dear Friend,

How are you today? Hope all is well with you and your family? I hope this mail meets you in a perfect condition.

I am using this opportunity to thank you for your great effort to ourunfinished transfer of fund into your account due to one reasonto assist me in transferring those funds despite the fact that it failed us some how.

I have authorized Mr Alan Smith where I deposited my money to issue you an international certified bank draft cashable at your bank. My dear friend I want you to contact Mr.Alan Smith for the collection of this international certified bank draft. The name and contact address of the Mr. Alan Smith is as follows.

CONTACT AGENT Mr. Alan Smith.
EMAIL: mralan_smith@hotmail.co.uk
PHONE: +234 275 008 03

Ask him to send to you the total $500,000 (five Hundred Thousand US Dollars) which I kept for your compensation for all the past efforts andattempts to assist me in this matter. I appreciated your efforts at that time very much,so feel free and get in touch with Mr. Alan Smith. and instruct him where to send the amount to you.

Please do let me know immediately you receive it so that we can share the joy after all the suffering at that time. At the moment, I am very busy here because of the investment projects which I and the new partner are having at hand. Remember that I had forwarded instruction to him on your behalf to receive that money, so get in touch with him and he will send the amount to you without delay.

Finally, my sincere advice to you as a christian is that you should endeavour to pay your tithe to a bible believing church when you get the money.

May God continue to bless and guide us at all times.Cheers.

Sincerely,
Mr. Jess Williams.

Well, there you have it. Doesn’t it just make you want to immediately call or e-mail the given contact point and let them know of their mistake. After all as a good christian that endeavours to pay your tithe to a bible believing church you must be the kind of honest person that would try to clarify that mistake. I don’t recall knowing a Jess Williams or Alan Smith or helping either of them in any business endeavor whatsoever. It just wouldn’t be right for me to ask them to send me $500,000…or would it? I mean maybe they are meant to send me that money. To have that much money they must be very smart men and they must know what they are doing and they did send this e-mail to me personally and besides, I deserve it, I work hard, I do my best to get ahead but can’t seem to quite get there, why shouldn’t I be the one to participate in this easy money. Besides won’t my church be happy when I give them a large check to pay tithes on the money they send. Just think of all the good that will do. What was that number again? Gotcha!

Now they have contact they will find some excuse to hook you in to performing some other act for them. They will just need you to do such and such first, or the bank won’t let us do a cashier check but we can do an electronic funds transfer that will also get the money to you faster, what is your account number and I’ll send it out today? Or they have a service fee to right the cashier check, just send me enough to cover the fee and the money is yours. Some will even go for a second or third ding if they can get anything out of you stringing you along with the ‘we are almost there, we just need a little more to take care of…’ routine. Besides what is a little investment on your part if you have the chance at so much more, then what is a little bit more if you are that close to getting it all, and then ‘I can’t stop now, look how much I have invested, I need to get it back at least.’

What would you do if you got this e-mail, or one of the many floating around out there like it? Maybe you did get this very same e-mail, what did you do? Some of us have been around the block a time or two and recognize the signs but there are others that are seeing some of these things for the first time. That is why these kinds of things continue to appear. There is always someone new, there is always someone greedy and gullible and willing to take a chance that it just might work…this time. Trust me, as the times get tougher we will see many more of these kinds of scams appear. Please be careful out there and help others to be careful too. Bringing these things out into the open is the best course of action. Bad things usually wither and fade away when exposed to the light. Shine on.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 3.

In fact, that is just what happened. Everyone started leveraging everything and because everyone was doing it, it seemed to make it all right. We piled on debt to pay for everything to be able to live for today and it was all o.k. because once all our cards and accounts reached their max we could just consolidate everything into one big newly refinanced loan by tapping into the freshly created inflation generated equity that the investment in our homes had just produced out of thin air. Pretty neat eh?

This worked so well that we got used to it and came to expect that it would work every time. Jobs were consist enough that we could count on the income to always be there and so we went ahead and obligated ourselves to make consistent payments that matched those consistent paychecks. Most Americans had it worked out so well that everything that came in was exactly the same as everything that went out. It was a smooth running machine, until one day when the price of gas went up. Now instead of it costing $20 to fill the tank it cost $40 and you don’t have the other $20 in your pocket. Something has to go but everything you have is already spoken for. Witness the pin that popped the bubble.

So stupid people make stupid decisions, this is nothing new. It has happened before and it will happen again. The key point to take from all this is that we don’t make the innocent pay the price for the ignorance of others. That is where the second comparison has come into play. The knee-jerk reactions that followed the bad choices of others as happened following the first great depression should not be replayed this time around. Obama and Congress are launching on the biggest mistake in this nation’s history and it is not without forewarning. The “stimulus package” will seal the fate of this nation as a full blown socialist state with little hope of return. There are far too many critics that have been far too quiet concerning this matter. It is not because they have not spoken in the past or in the present, but the current mass media markets have decided not to listen. Make no mistake about it, voices are being suppressed. The America of our forefathers is in jeopardy of being no more, and for the sake of being politically correct we will squelch the voices of wisdom. We will label them crackpots or worse.

There are of course differences between now and then. FDR waited several years and I imagine went through quite a bit of debate before implementing the new deal. Obama and his congress have rushed the current new deal through in a matter of days. This surprises me especially when you compare it to the regular congressional budget that usually is past after the new fiscal year has begun, and sometimes months after. Why this rush? Banks closings are up but not anywhere near the level of the Great Depression. Unemployment is up, but also not anywhere near what it was in the Great Depression. 7.5% vs. 25+% do the math.

The economy was a hot button item during the election timeframe and usually is during campaigning. The Democrats and their media talked up how bad things were when in reality things were not really bad at all. This is not to say that there were not some bad areas and some people experiencing bad times. That has always been the case in our nation’s history. There are boom and bust cycles going on all over all the time, nothing new. But like so many political campaigns, you can’t convince others to vote for you unless you can convince them that the other guys are doing worse than you would. Standard fare, I mean I many times have you heard that the last few years under the Bush administration were the worst years ever in recorded history. Kind of sounds like the same thing Bush said about Clinton and Clinton said about the Bush before that. My question is why do we continue to believe it when the truth says otherwise, or at least is somewhere in between?

So the Democrats have convinced us all that the economy was falling apart and only they could make it work again. They said it so long that we and they started to believe it. Is this the case of a self fulfilling prophecy? Pretty soon people started making decisions based on this doomsday prophecy, confidence in the system was shaken and those decisions triggered other decisions which started us down the path of an economic slowdown.

If we can raise this slowdown to the level of a crisis, then we can implement all kinds of legislation without any questions or obstacles. What better way can you think of to get your policies in place before anyone has time to think twice? It has to be done now because it will be too late tomorrow, and beside we have to do something…don’t we? The knee-jerk caught a lame duck president with a first financial bailout and followed on to the new president with the stimulus package.

This isn’t the first real estate driven crisis, remember the 1980’s and the savings and loan problem. Remember how it wasn’t solved with a massive spending bill but a revamp of the banking industry that combined savings and loan institutions with bank bringing them under the FDIC insurance for depositor safety and then orderly liquidated bad real estate deals through the use of open market pricing? Why are we subsidizing the bad institutions this time and trying to keep them in business when we should be helping them liquidate in an orderly fashion? The FDIC could play the role of insurer as it is chartered to do and protect depositors money up to the agreed upon amounts, sell off the assets of the defunct business at market prices to willing participants and we could all get on with the business at hand.

Instead we are putting the patient on life-support, one that only prolongs the misery and the pain. Japan went through a period of denial with its real estate boom of the 80’s and they are still paying the price. Instead of clearing the books they finagled them through adjustable accounting. We are doing the same. Where oh where has wisdom gone in our elected officials?

And where has our wisdom gone? This article has taken a lot of thought and effort to write. As I have watched the proceedings take place in the news and the actions taken by our elected elite, I am both in awe and wonder. I am totally dumbfounded by what is taking place. It just doesn’t seem possible that this is actually happening in real life, and maybe when I get up tomorrow I can find that I just read it wrong. That was several days ago and I am still seeing the same thing, it is really happening. I can’t stop it, I am not an insider so I can’t profit from it, and I shudder to think what it will take to reverse it now that it is in place.

When reason fails with man, and the world begins to tumble, I guess the only thing left is the thing we have had all along. Turn to God. Pray and know that God lives. As the world tosses and turns and changes with the winds and tides; know that God is the same yesterday, today, and forever. Therein lays our strength, our guide, and our salvation. Ours need not be a fleeting moment in time if we are willing to look to our Father in Heaven with eternal eyes. My prayer for us all, leaders and citizen alike is that we have the wisdom and the courage to make the right choices and to stand for what is right.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Click here if you want to see the new Great Depression Part 1 or to go to Part 2.

Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 2.

So what did you want the government to do, nothing? Yes, as a matter of fact, that would have been the best course of action for it to take. If we really believe in free markets (a freedom principle) and the economics of supply and demand, then the role of government is too help protect consumers from fraud (a criminal act with criminal intent) and monopolies (manipulation of markets to gain control and prevent freedom within the market), and such acts for fairness sake, but not to dictate which businesses we can have and how we should run them or who we can and can’t deal with. It is when governments try to intervene on the belief that they can best determine how to ‘create’ fairness that we all lose.

This is called social engineering and it has never worked well if it has ever worked at all. In any instance I can think of, it comes down to taking away from one to give to another. It is providing subsidies for a favored group at the expense of a less favored group, and it is always the party in power that is making the decision of which group to favor. This is not equality this is theft, and it is the worst injustice of all. Two wrongs do not make a right. Just because your group or cause may be winning the ‘equality equation’ one minute is no guarantee that it will the next. Welcome to the roots of Socialism and Communism. Ayn Rand, F.A. Hayek, George Orwell, and many others have tried to warn and persuade against these evils.

So if the government would have done nothing, the market would have worked itself out and life would have gotten back to normal a lot sooner than it did. Remember the words about supply and demand. Basic economics says that when a seller and a buyer have the same price in mind, a transaction takes place. If there is a difference in the desired price each is willing to accept then no transaction takes place…that is until they come to an agreed price. Of course, if a seller’s price is less than what a buyer is willing to pay or if a buyer’s price is higher than the seller is expecting a transaction will also occur with a happier than expected outcome for one of the participants.

If prices rise too far, buyers quit buying or buy less than they normally would until either their situation changes or prices fall back to a level they are willing to accept. This is where the true power of the market and more importantly the people’s power lie…as consumers. If a consumer decides that the price is too high she can just turn away, and with the markets that America has developed, they can look elsewhere. We as consumers have the power of alternatives and options, another great benefit from having free markets…choice.

So what happens in a bankruptcy? The prices fall to clear inventory. How far the prices fall is determined by the market and the need to move that inventory to meet the demands of the defunct business. Again the market place determines a fair price by matching the seller with the buyer at a price both can live with. In the case of stocks, the price will fall to some level where a buyer will believe that he can find value in the purchase. Look at the recent Circuit City bankruptcy as an example. They have invited in the liquidators who will sale all remaining inventory (and then some) at liquidation prices. First they will move all prices back up to full retail and then start marking off a certain percentage to make the sale. A few weeks pass and they will raise the percentage off to sell a little more. A few more weeks and a few more percentages, until most all the inventory has been sold off by having a willing buyer and a willing seller at an agreed upon price. The good stuff will go first at the highest prices and the lesser stuff will go as their fair price is eventually reached. It is natural, and it is how real markets work.

So what can we compare this to today? There are two common elements that exist today that were common back then. First is an overinflated market full of speculators and hype that has easy access to excessive credit for an overleveraged play. If anybody could not see the comparison to Real Estate investing then you shouldn’t be allowed to vote because you just aren’t paying enough attention to the world around you.

Real estate has been a huge hit sense someone went to the trouble of trying to convince everyone that they should have some. A chicken in every pot, a car in every garage, and home ownership, the American dream, who could ask for anything more?

Real estate promised equity and wealth, and a place of status. It was incentivized and subsidized by tax breaks and government programs. Best of all you could finance 80%, then 90%, then 100% with no money down. They even had loans that would give you 120% of the homes “value”. At the pinnacle of it all you could even find loans where you never had to pay back the principle, just pay the interest and everything would be fine. After all the prices were going up and up and up and they aren’t building any more land you know.

Everywhere you turned there was a class or a course on how to buy real estate with no money down, or how to flip a home, or buy a foreclosure, or become a landlord. Real estate gurus came and went as fast as you could change the channel on the late night infomercials. All you had to do was take a look around and you could see someone that had made a mint in real estate, why even the Governor of California made his millions in real estate so why shouldn’t we.

And even if it wasn’t to make us rich by becoming the next Donald Trump we could at least be better off. We have always been told that owning your own home was a good and smart investment. Look at the equity your building. You have ownership of something and they can’t take that away from you. Why pay someone else when you can be paying yourself? (That is good advice when applied in a practical matter).

So the equity you built is caused by inflation and not by an increase in value, and owning your own home allows you to put holes in the walls where you want to and repaint any color you so choose without checking with a landlord first, and owning your own home means you can do with it whatever you want to as long as what you want to do is consistent with existing zoning laws and property covenants and building permits, and owning your home means no one can take that away from you unless you have a mortgage and miss a payment or run up against hard times and can’t pay your property taxes, but hey it is your home.

In the past, you could only borrow an amount that would have your monthly payment no greater than 25% of one wage earners income and that was probably take home pay at that. Recently it seems that you could qualify to finance an amount that would take 80% of your take home pay. (The remaining amount could pay for cable and you could feed yourself with food stamps).

Click here to see the new Great Depression Part 3 or here to go to Part 1.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 1.

There are certain stages in our nation’s history that we thought would never be repeated. In fact they should never be repeated. Those that have not learned the lessons from the past are doomed to repeat them. We have learned these lessons, or at the very least should have. For those that have not learned them, there are others that have if we will but listen. Sometimes it becomes a matter of knowing who to listen to. In this world of spin and revisionist historians, it is easy to become confused. Here then is my contribution to the economic world of wonder we are facing.

The current financial crisis we are facing has often been compared to the Great Depression. There may be some similarities and that is disturbing as this need never have happened, but with the passage of the “stimulus bill” it most certainly will turn into another great depression.

First a quick word about the economy and economic cycles. Booms and Busts. They have been with us since the beginning of commerce and will continue to be a major part of any world that consists of trade. The market psychology that comes with it is also nothing new. People get overly exuberant and overly pessimistic at the worst times and that drives the demand side of the supply vs. demand equation to unrealistic levels. Once it gets too far one way or the other, it usually returns to a more normal state but at a pace that catches most people unprepared. When this is done on a large scale it is called a bubble. It is called a bubble because prices grow rapidly and, much like a bubble, from the insertion of air…much of it hot. When a bubble can take no more air yet more is introduced, the bubble pops and everything comes tumbling back to normal waiting for someone to stick their ring in a can of solution, blow real hard and start to create the next new bubble.

We have all experienced bubbles before and sometimes not even realized it. The recent increase and then decrease in the price of oil and gasoline is a great example. The tech stock market that took dot.coms to the stratosphere and then tanked in 2000 is another. The bubble that is getting us today is housing. In order to put this into perspective and compare it to the Great Depression, let us go back to that time and see what was happening.

Most will say that the stock market crash of 1929 triggered the Great Depression while others are looking at other factors such as the governments reactions (actions taken after the fact) as the major cause of the Great Depression. From what I have seen and read, I tend to fall in the later camp.

The stock market crash of 1929 had several factors that came into play but one of the key elements was that fact that you could buy stocks on margin. In other words, you could use debt, or borrow 90% of the price of a stock to purchase it. This is known as using leverage in the investing world. It works great as long as prices are going up. It can kill you when prices go down. Here is how it works.

You buy $100 dollars in stock but you only have to come up with $10 and your broker came up with the other $90. The price of your stock goes to $110 and you sell it. You pay back the broker his $90 plus some interest for borrowing his money, say $1. That leaves you with the remaining $9 as profit and since you only put up $10 of your own money you just made a 90% return on your investment. Pretty sweet deal and way better than the piddley amount you would earn in interest from the bank.

The boom market in stocks that started in the mid 1920’s was making many people very rich, and just like the gold rush it attracted many newcomers, some that knew what they were doing and many that didn’t. It seemed that anybody could invest and make big money, and many did. And when you saw your neighbor making easy money it was natural for you to want to do the same. Pretty soon everyone was trying to jump on the band wagon and make their fortune. Eventually, prices rose to a point that was ridiculous and unsustainable and they started to decline.

When prices decline, those that have leveraged are the ones that are hurt. When the $100 stock goes to $90, and you bought it on margin, you still owe your broker $90. If you sell the stock now and pay off the broker, (and don’t forget you owe him $91 to cover the cost of borrowing) you are left with nothing. Well you don’t want that to happen so you hold on thinking this is a temporary down turn and prices will be heading up again very soon. After all you made this investment to become rich like your neighbor, and everybody is doing it. Pretty soon however the price is $80 and your broker gives you a call and says he needs some money to cover the shortfall. You don’t have any money because you spent your last $10 buying this stock that was going to make you rich. The broker sells your stock and you owe him the difference.

As the broker sells your stock it puts more pressure on the prices and they continue to go down creating a spiral effect. Individuals have to pull money from the bank to pay off their debts. If the stock they bought is used as collateral for other purchases and the value of that collateral declines the other loans are in danger of going into default. As the defaults start in one area they can quickly expand, moving from one area to another by hitting one account and then another. As people scrambled to cover their newly acquired debt and save their personal finances from collapsing, it began to impact other people and business portfolios. They in turn had to struggle to save their finances from collapsing. One person’s pain began to be felt by all.

Now remember that this was nothing new and in reality it was quite common for markets to experience booms and bust. In fact, some areas of some markets have had greater price movements both up and down. Investors have made their millions and lost everything on many occasions and in many different markets even before there was a stock market. You can find books that will describe other markets such as the great tulip market of the 1600’s that went through these outlandish pricing periods. In fact there have been many markets in our lifetime that have experienced extreme boom and bust conditions. Our awareness of them is only brought about by our personal participation or the participation of someone we know. The really big ones are only well known because they impacted a large percentage of the population. Where was the media when you lost all that money on your cabbage patch doll and beanie baby collection?

As a result of the magnitude of the stock market price decline, the impacts spilled out into all aspects of the economy from banks to business to government. The madness of men and markets drove a typical price correction into a recession of large magnitude and that should have been the end of it but then it turned into a depression as a result of the actions taken by the government to correct the problem.

Now before you get me wrong, note that they did do some things right. The margin rates were cut so that investors were no longer able to buy stocks with 10% down. The current rate is 50% which some might think is still high but 2 for 1 is a lot less than 10 for 1. They also strengthened the banking system and regulations for oversight and increased the use of insurance for depositors to restore faith in the banking system.

Unfortunately, the Great Depression also allowed the government to introduce the New Deal. This was one of those giant knee-jerk reactions from government to fix the wrongs of man. What it did was introduce many of the Socialist policies and programs that we face today. It also launched a large “stimulus” package that tried to spend our way back to prosperity. Many would say that it extended the length of the depression many years past its natural length. I would have to agree. Much of the spending went into make work projects where efficiencies and effectiveness were not considered let alone any outcomes beyond the creation of jobs as the objective. We also created the world’s largest legal Ponzi scheme ever known to man…Social Security.

This government driven economy is the very idea we used to find so abhorrent in communist nations and would speak openly against. We used to think that nationalizing any industry was something that only happened in backward third world countries and if anyone even suggested such a thing people would start looking for a hanging rope. Laissez faire has oft been the slogan of a free nation.

Click here to continue to the new Great Depression Pt. 2. or Part 3.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Too good to be true?

I opened up this e-mail today. I got a good laugh and thought I should share it with who ever would like to take the time to read it. If you aren't laughing along then you may be a prime candidate for this numskull. If you are even remotely interested then you are not paying attention. Remember that you should check out any and all things that seem suspicious before taking any action. You can always check out www.snopes.com. They and others have all heard of this African scam. Do a little research, you might find it interesting.

ONLY AN EXAMPLE

FROM: PATRICK MPHO
E-MAIL: patrickmpho2009@live.co.za, patrickmpho009@gmail.com
20 BOTHA CRESCENT,
SANDTON, JOHANNESBURG,
SOUTH AFRIACA
MD/CEO,

APPEAL FOR ASSISSTANCE

I know that this message will come to you as a surprise since we don't know each other before, but for purpose of introduction, I am PATRICK MPHO the Bank Manager of AMALGAMATED BANK OF SOUTH AF RICA (ABSA).

First and foremost, I apologize using this medium to reach you for a transaction / business of this magnitude, but this is due to Confidentiality and prompt access reposed on this medium. Be informed that a member of the South Africa Export Promotion Council (SEPC) who was at the Government delegation to your country during a trade exhibition gave your enviable credentials / particulars to me. I plea to seek a confidential co-operation with you in the execution of the deal described hereunder for the benefit of all parties and hope you will keep it as a top secret because of the nature of this transaction.

There is an account opened in this bank in 1990 and since 1998 nobody has operated on this account again. After going through some old files in the records, I discovered that if I do not remit this money out urgently it would be forfeited for nothing. The owner of this account is MR. SAMUEL CARTER, a foreigner, and a miner at Kruger gold co., a geologist by profession and he died since 1998.

No other person knows about this account or any thing concerning it, the account has no other beneficiary and my investigation proved to me as well that his company does not know anything about this account and the amount involved is (USD$35,000,000M) thirty five million United States Dollars.

I am only contacting you as a foreigner because this money cannot be approved to a local bank here, but can only be approved to any foreign account because the money is in US dollars and the former owner of the account is MR. SAMUEL CARTER a foreigner too.
I know that this message will come to you as a surprise as we don't know ourselves before. We will sign an agreement, but be sure that it is real and a genuine business.

Please reply urgently so that I will inform you the next step to take immediately. Send also your private telephone and fax number including the full details of the account to
be used for the deposit.

I want us to meet face to face or sign a binding agreement to bind us together so that you can receive this money into a foreign account or any account of your choice where the fund will be safe. And I will fly to your country for withdrawal and sharing and other investments. I am contacting you because of the need to involve a foreigner with foreign account and foreign beneficiary.

I need your full co-operation to make this work fine because the management is ready to approve this payment to any foreigner, who has correct information of this account, which I will give to you later immediately, if you are capable and willing to handle such amount in strict confidence and trust according to my instructions and advice for our mutual benefit because this opportunity will never come again in my life.

I need truthful person in this business because I don't want to make mistake I need your strong assurance and trust. With my position now in the office I can transfer this money to any foreigner's reliable account, which you can provide with assurance that this money will be intact pending my physical arrival in your country for sharing. I will destroy all documents of transaction immediately we receive this money leaving no trace to any place.

You can also come to discuss with me face to face after which I will make this remittance in your presence and two of us will fly to your country at least two days ahead of the money going into the account. I will apply for annual leave to get visa immediately I hear from you that you are ready to act and receive this fund in your account.

I will use my position and influence to effect legal approvals and onward transfer of this money to your account with appropriate clearance forms of the ministries and foreign exchange departments. At the conclusion of this business, you will be given 30% of the tot al amount, 70% will be for me.

I look forward to your earliest reply

yours truly,
PATRICK MPHO
+27840466670

END OF EXAMPLE

Well that is it. That is just how it came to me and I am sure many, many others. Not a word was changed, corrected, or adjusted. The names have also not been changed to protect the innocent on account of there not being any innocent listed. If there truly is a Patrick MPHO, I hope his ambitions are properly rewarded by the proper authorities.

Of course I could try and make this stuff up but apparently there is too much competition.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Don't take dumb advice.

That may sound like common sense but I am amazed at how much dumb advice is out there. And I have come across some of the dumbest advice yet from AOL sponsored pages.

When we hooked up the new computer to the internet, one of the default home pages was to AOL. It looked innocent enough at the time and so I just haven't taken the time to delete it. Besides any links to new or more or better information is a good thing for an info junkie like me.

The trouble is, they are nothing but fluff vendors. The page is full of teasers of the worst kind, the kind I get sucked into. Not all of them get me but there are enough that do to make me worried as to functioning of my crap detector. It really seems to be falling down on the job lately.

Anyway, the headline reads "Need to make some quick cash?". Well sure who doesn't? But I have seen these lines many times in the form of spam in my e-mail box. What could AOL possible have that might be of value? The following tag line reads "Clever ideas that fill pockets fast". That sounds great, take me there.

The link takes me to the next page that is titled "25 (Unconventional) Ways to make Quick Money". Unconventional huh, well that could be a good thing. After all it is unconventional that makes people stand out and excel. Dave Ramsey says "Live like nobody else now so that you can live like nobody else later". I like that.

Of course this list of things is not a simple list but a slide show of ideas so you have to remain in their pages exposed to their ads for the next 25 slides. O.K. I can live with that if you are going to give me something of value. Lead on.

First up, start your own part-time business from home. No bad but their suggestion is to become a dog walker, errand runner, driver or computer consultant. That is a pretty diverse selection and none that will produce quick money in the near term.

What's next? Take a part time job, again not bad advice, working for a living is always a good thing, but we are looking for unconventional ways to make quick money, not the tried and true methods.

The next item got me. They suggest you seek emergency assistance, in other words charity. There are certain times when things fail that charity can step in and provide a helping hand to get people over a hurdle, but too suggest this as a way to make quick money is pretty pathetic. What is AOL thinking with this one?

A couple of more good suggestions come next, such as 'Make stuff to sell', 'sell stuff on craigslist (which should also work on eBay), 'do odd jobs' (same category as taking a part-time job), 'find an online gig' (not sure what that is but sounds like part-time work through online sources), 'return past purchases', 'hold a yard sale', 'recycle scrap metal', 'become a temp' (another form of part-time work), 'take in a boarder', 'pawn your stuff' (though you will probably get more selling it yourself), and 'go scavenging' (using a metal detector, or collecting aluminum cans).

These are mingled with stupid things like 'rent out your parking space', rob the piggy bank to 'collect your change', 'sign up for medical tests' such as avian flu vaccine, 'tap your life insurance', and 'scalp tickets (legally)'.

But the dumbest suggestions of all are 'get a payday loan' (just visit the local loan shark), 'raid your IRA' (retirement is for old people), 'sell some body parts' (thankfully they limit this to blood and hair, but still), 'bank your sperm', 'sell stuff to motorists' (that's all we need more car to car vendors), and the absolute worst suggestion of all time 'Head to the Casino'.

Some of these ideas you can easily do and should if you are in need of additional funds. Some of the ideas will take some funds to get started, if you don't already own a metal detector you may have to lay out some funds to obtain one. Then you need to compare costs to revenue and decide if it is worth it.

The other ideas are foolhardy if not outright dangerous. If your retirement plans consist of lottery tickets then you are probably a prime target of this AOL article. If not, you will recognize it for what it is, crap. Get your crap detector in gear. The best way to do that is to educate yourself. Learn as much as you can about as much as you can. The more you know the more wisdom will follow. There are plecty of people out there willing to give you advice. With knowledge and wisdom you will quickly be able to discern the difference between the good and the bad. Profit from the good and avoid like the plague the bad.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Stop Congress from acting

We are faced with the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, or so they say. If Wall Street collapses Main Street will also, or so they say. If the government doesn’t step in and buy up all the bad mortgages then millions will lose their homes, or so they say.

The headlines and the talking heads have been heaping up a whole light of gloom and doom lately and in the wake we the American people and more especially the tax payer are headed for disaster. We can ill afford the plans being offered and the actions about to be taken. You cannot continue to cover up a mistake with a bigger mistake and hope no one will notice.

Let me present a simple little story to try to make a point. A local furniture store opens for business with the hope of making a profit by selling its wares to the local community. In the process they stock inventory that they hope will appeal to the local population. Some of it does and some of it doesn’t. Some of it is priced where the average person can afford it and some of it is priced way beyond the reach of the local community. Those things that appeal sell quickly while those that don’t sell are marked down to a price where they will sell. The business learns what the market wants, adjusts its inventory and repeats the process having found a formula that creates a long lasting relationship with the customer in the community.

Another furniture store opens for business and does a good job for awhile but management doesn’t understand the needs of the community. They stock inventory that suits their own desires and ideals and for awhile they see some sales but they begin to taper off. The furniture is just too expensive for what it is and the local economy can’t afford to splurge on these items even if they wanted the styles this store has to offer. As sales continue to fall, they finally reach a point where they can no longer stay in business. The last month the store has signs hung in the window that read ‘Going out of business Sale’ as they try to reduce their stock and payback their creditors. The final days see the owners taking any price on the remaining inventory in an effort to clear the books. The bargain hunters and shoppers find items finally at a price they can live with and clear out the remaining inventory of the store.

Meanwhile the successful store sees a slowdown in its sales temporarily as the ‘going out of business sales’ have taken away some of their shoppers. This only lasts for a little while though, as the successful business continues to provide their community with the right mix of product and price.

This is how business has worked in this country and around the world for years. That is what capitalism is about. Freedom to enter the market and exit the market as the market dictates. If you do things right you are rewarded, but if you do not get things right, you correct your methods or you go out of business. It works on a small scale and it works on a large scale.

If the government decided that the second furniture store should stay in business and decided to loan them enough money to pay their salaries and utilities and they stepped in and bought at full retail all the furniture they couldn’t sell, they could keep this company in business but only for as long as they were willing to pay for their salaries, utilities and buy their crappy inventory. If the company continued to operate the same way as they began it would take continued infusions to let them continue to exist.

Also, how fair is this to the first company? They also wish to remain in business but they have a plan that works and they have been successful in implementing that plan. They do not need the assistance or handout of government nor do they seek one. Is it fair for them to have to pay taxes that are transferred to their competitor just because he is not able to meet the needs of his customer? Is it fair to penalize the first company and reward the second? Is this the government’s role?

If we truly believe that America is great and want it to continue to be great, then we trust in those things that made it great. Freedom is one of them, Capitalism another. This is not a matter of scale, but rather of core values.

If the financial institutions have bad paper on their books then let them mark them down to true value and take the hit to the income statement. If they no longer want to own them, let them take them to the market place and get whatever price another is willing to pay. There is generally a market for everything; you just won’t necessarily like the price. If after selling off your bad inventory and you still find yourself in business then congratulations you are still alive and kicking. If after selling off your bad inventory and you don’t have sufficient cash flow to survive, then close shop, learn your lessons and start again.

Learning the lessons is not an easy thing to do. Some never learn. Some give up and never try again. Some try again but end up doing the same thing they did the first time. Some actually see what they did wrong; make adjustments and move on to bigger and better things. There must be consequences both for when we fail and when we succeed. This is America at its finest.

So what is wrong here, or should I say what are some of the things that are wrong here because there are many and that means there is not a simple single fix that will take care of everything.

As much as there is a cry against deregulation, that is not the problem. There is still more than enough regulation to choke a horse it just needs to be applied, consistently and equally to one and all, no favoritism. This runs throughout the financial world and many aspects of our economy.

The housing problem is a very large issue and one that has been compounded by previous bad responses. It is a market bubble with many providing the hot air to blow it up. Stemming from the last mortgage bail out of savings and loans with the RTC, the continued tax subsidizations that Congress passes to promote debt, and the tax laws that encourage and advantage those that speculate in real estate, it is no wonder that the bubble has ballooned to a point of explosion. If we continue with these proposed fixes then we are just slapping a band aid on the balloon and trying to force more air into the bubble.

All balloons can only hold so much air. There is only one way to find out how much it will hold, and after you find out, it will never hold that amount again. Then you are left looking for a new balloon.

Instead of all this governmental intervention to circumvent the markets, let’s make a way for the market to take over and work the way it was meant to. Let stability return to the market place naturally. Let the rules work naturally as they always seem to do no matter how much governments try to change them.

We will get through this. I just don’t want it to be harder than it has to be.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Free DVD rental at Redbox

If you are fortunate enough to live near a place that has a Redbox then you know how handy they can be. For those that don’t let me tell you what they are. Someone came up with the great idea of setting up a movie rental business from a vending machine. I finally overcame my fear of the new technology and had to try it out, and I must say I do like the idea. I have since seen the idea done in other places but Redbox seems to have the formula down pat.

They have placed the rental kiosk in many convenient locations such as McDonalds and Smith’s Food King and some local Wal-Marts. At the screen select any of the DVDs available, enter your credit card and out comes the movie. When you are finished watching the movie you take it back to any location, it doesn’t even have to be the one where you got it from and return it. Your credit card well then be automatically billed for the whopping price of (get this) $1 + tax per day. These are for any selections in the box including new releases. That certainly beats out the last few places I used to rent from.

And what happens if you keep it an extra day? Nothing but an extra $1 charge. In fact if you have it out over 25 days just keep it because the charges stop after 25 days and it is assumed that you have bought the movie.

As Redbox continues to grow, there are over 8,000 locations now, it will make it easy for families that go on a road trip to stop at one place and rent a kid friendly movie, watch it on the video player that so many mini vans and SUVs have now and turn it back in for another one somewhere down the road. If I didn’t like to do the driving so much I would definitely be a passenger.

Now it won’t completely replace your local video store as the vending machines are limited on the total number of selections available. You can only put so many into one machine, so if you are looking for an obscure classic you will be better off shopping the local store. If you want one of the latest new releases, be sure to get there early because they might run out of stock, especially on hot items and especially on the weekends. That said, you generally find a pretty good selection and I only go away without finding something really worth watching occasionally.

As I am always on the lookout for great ideas to invest in, this one surely grabbed my interest. I went straight to the internet to look for more information on this company. I knew this was a good idea when I went to the local McDonalds one night to rent the latest comedy and noticed that the line outside in front of the Redbox was longer than the line inside ordering food. You know you have a winner when…

Unfortunately Redbox was and as of this writing still is a privately held company. They have made known their intention to file registration statements for an initial public offering with the SEC. Depending on the pricing and business plan laid out in the prospectus this might be a worthy investment. After all, some of the sites with a Redbox have added a second box so business must be booming.

So the last thing to say is that when I gave them my e-mail address they gave me a promotion code that I could give to my friends for one free night rental, so if you are in an area with a Redbox and want to give it a try, enter the promo code “DVDONME”. Tell them Ed sent you.

You can find them on the web at www.redbox.com.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.