I do believe that reporters/journalist...

...believe that they represent the general public when they are covering politicians and candidates for public office and tend to act on that believe.

I also believe that politicians and candidates for public office also believe that they represent the general public and tend to act on that believe.

As a member of the general public, why do I feel left out?

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

I am ready to give up on Twitter

I know someone that was into Twitter.  He was excited about it and for a period of time was addicted to it.  He found some of the comments humorous and involving.  He enjoyed the commentary on politics from national to local and even used it for his own run for a local office as well as raising awareness for local causes.  This went on for awhile but after a few months his interest waned and I believe he only gets on Twitter infrequently to check out the latest current happenings but not with the same level of passion.

But he did have passion at one time and that passion aroused an interest in me to try it out.  The other factor was all the attention that Donald Trump was getting from his use of twitter.  For all the media reporting about what he had said or didn't say on Twitter it made me curious as to whether he actually did say or didn't say that on Twitter and was it real, fake, sound bites, taken out of context, incomplete or just spin.  I wanted to see for myself.

Twitter sounds straight forward enough and is probably the reason we have #hashtags everywhere.  In fact, that is one reason it took me so long to take an interest in Twitter, you have to learn to read code.  Tweets are limited to 140 characters which should make for some short, lively, thoughtful and concise exchanges between a community of tweeters.  The #hashtags are used to link the tweets by subjects and can be a way to explore topics by searching for your favorites.  You can choose to follow an individual or subject/topic and any new post will fill the news feed on your homepage.  So far so good.

Now for the reality.  Not all of your friends are on Twitter and if they are they were only there for a short time before losing interest and don't post regularly anymore nor are they likely to be monitoring what you have posted because they just don't check anymore.  They do Facebook.  Everybody does Facebook.  Facebook does not have 140 character limits.  Why bother with Twitter when it is all on Facebook.  Hard to argue that.

Twitter had a 'right now' feel about it. In other words, you could get on right now and make comments about, or read comments from others about what they were thinking about some event that was taking place right now and there was a good chance that someone somewhere was also out there witnessing that event right now just waiting to share opinions and comments right now.  If you are in the moment and have a need to share with anyone in the moment but are separated by distance and acquaintance then Twitter may work for you, if not you are probably on Facebook which for many can still be an in the moment tool.

It isn't for lack of trying on Twitters part.  From the moment of signup they have tried to connect me into their world by way of multiple e-mails asking about all my interest as well their willingness to link me with all my friends if I just give them access to my e-mail address books.  Sorry Twitter, my respect for my friends trumps your desire to access their e-mail addresses.  But I did take them up on initial suggestions for subjects/topics and Donald Trump.

Speaking of the Donald, least you get the wrong idea, I am not a fan and I am not a hater.  I think he is arrogant, egotistical, not nearly as bright as many would like him to be, and going all the way back to his first book, one that is more about the show than the substance.  Can he get things done?  Like all things political it depends on your definition.  And like all things political if it is something he favors he will take the credit and if it is something he does not favor it is the other guys fault.  So what is new here?  (Replace the name Donald with any politicians name and it will read the same.  Kind of like a horoscope.)

For good measure I also signed up for a couple of other politicians to get a lay of the land.  Most were deleted in short order, but I did leave a couple of the more active current noise makers to get a sense of the state of the union, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.  What I have learned from these three could fill a thimble.  Okay, I might be exaggerating a little.  If I stuck it out long enough it might fill the thimble part way.

What I have learned is that if voters were willing to pay just a little bit more attention to what these people where saying there is no way, shape or form that they would have this kind of power and influence upon this great land and it's people.  Funny what we allow when we aren't paying attention.

So again I ask, what is Twitter?  The one thing that is left when you strip away the value of original intent: advertising.  Twitter advertises like most web sites and I am okay with that.  If however, you pretend that your advertisements are part of the real content then I lose some respect for you.  Also, most advertising is supposedly selected for you based on your interest, tailored if you will, but I have yet to see it work well in practice.  I imagine that after many months of participation they might get lucky and hit a few ads that are relevant but I also imagine that I still wont pay much attention to them.  As long as ads pay the bills and keep the service free to use, I can live with that.

So, since real people that spend time on Twitter are hard to find and phony popular celebrity people are a dime a dozen with mostly one way dialogues, the only other players on Twitter are the businesses that are trying to draw attention to themselves in any way they can.  That also means noise.  What is missing in content is made up for with volume.  I have seen some tweets done 4 or 5 different ways on the same story with a slight variation but with the intent of causing action on the part of the viewer, a ploy of marketing.

Which brings me to my biggest complaint with Twitter, namely that 140 characters is never enough for today's messages and so 98% of the tweets are little more than links to some other page in some other location in some other corner of the world wide web.  That's right, the goal of Twitter is to draw you in so that it can send you away.  As a launching pad or gateway it is no better or worse than what a lot of the internet has become other than you can make better choices for launching down a rabbit hole if you have more to go on than 140 characters and #hashtags.  And with that I have to state that for me Twitter is

No Value Added

and that is the only measuring stick that matters.  Time is too precious to squander on something that delivers so small a return on investment.  It would be interesting to see real statistics on usage, retention, membership new and old and participation rates for Twitter.  I am betting that the stock would not trade so highly if logic and reason prevailed but then if logic and reason prevailed we wouldn't have the Twitter we have today, nor those that make the most noise on it.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

Chuck Todd must go

I have watched 'Meet the Press' for many, many years.  Perhaps I should say I used to watch 'Meet the Press' but I can't really stomach it much anymore.

Tim Russert gave the show the legitimacy that it needed as a valued news program.  Then he passed away from a sudden coronary thrombosis on June 13, 2008.  It was a great loss.  Not just of a good man but of a good political show.

It was also a great loss for NBC.  Their news program collectively is crap.  It is totally biased, nonobjective and non journalistic.  They maybe able to convince themselves that they have integrity but it only exist within the minds of their own small group of bobbing heads sitting around their round table discussions.

When Chuck Todd is the cream that raises to the top of your cup and is considered the best choice to take control of the most prestigious political show on your network then you have a serious credibility, integrity and believability crisis in what is usually the core strength of any national network and that is its' news coverage.  Without that you are sitting on a chair that is missing one of its' legs, all wobble and little comfort.

Of course the other networks don't have any better bragging power.  Chris Wallace on Fox and George Stephanopoulos on ABC (and who does CBS have I can't recall); what have any of them got to offer?  Where does a person turn to get real, unbiased, objective, true journalistic news?

I recently did a survey about this years political election coverage and the type of questions and multiple answer format was interesting.  It gave me the impression that they do not get it either.

I don't think that anyone with a more than passing interest in politics and the election is able to get all the information they need from one source.  Not legitimately anyway.  I also don't believe that any reporting is complete and unbiased enough to accept one version, and that it requires several different versions and much reading between the lines to get a more complete picture of any given topic.  It cannot be done by visiting only one site.  It takes effort.  Sometimes a lot of effort.  You might not find it worth the effort.  Many don't.

As the noise gets louder and more voluminous it is good to install filters that cut out the worst of the worst and ensure that the sites and sources with little or no value added are cut from your view.  Shove it to the peripherals or off the screen entirely.

And that is where Chuck Todd belongs.  I have added him to my automatic 'switch the channel' list.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

The Either/Or Dilemma

dilemma

noun

1.    a situation in which a difficult choice has to be made between two or more alternatives, especially equally undesirable ones.

I am sure you have already guessed what this is going to be about.

The last post was actually started here but turned into it's own entry.  This is a follow on prelude if you will with reflections on our current state of political affairs.  Isn't it sad that  our nation has an either/or mentality.

I mentioned faulty logic in the decision making process in the last entry and it is a much larger topic than I gave it space for.  One of my greater pet peeves is the either/or presentation especially when it comes to communal decision making.  We are played by politicians all the time and we continue to put up with it and frankly I am getting sick of it.

It is used whenever they have already decided to implement a change that will be unacceptable to the general public and usually comes in the form of new taxes, new policy or new regulation that will limit your rights and freedoms and take money from your wallet.  It is offered in the form of either you take this choice we have made for you or you take this other choice that we know no one in their right mind would take because it is so much worse that the one we want you to pick which is the choice we have made for you.

Either we raise your taxes or children will go hungry, or police and fire departments will have layoffs, or potholes will grow, or garbage will pile up, or sewage will back up...etc., etc..

Either you live or you die, that is all, end of discussion.  Or is it.  Life is not just an either/or decision.  It is made up of many, many decision.  It nearly always comes with more than two options.  Look around you and tell me if there are more than two kinds of snowflakes.

I happen to know that there are three kinds of people in the world.  Them that know numbers and them that don't.

So now we are headed into an election where for many there are only two choices.  Gosh I feel sorry for you if you find yourself in that category.  I for one decided a long time ago that neither one of the traditional parties provided a viable candidate or platform that I was willing to support or endorse and this was before the conventions, so I went looking...looking for options.

I must not be the only one as some of the polls I have seen show that a third and a fourth candidate for president are drawing 10% and 6% interest and 3% for any others in place of the more attention grabbing first and second slots.  At least some people are smart enough to know that when a bad either/or choice is placed before them that you should choose neither.

If someone ask you "do you want pie or ice cream" you should answer "yes".  If some one ask you "do you want me to break your arm or break you leg?" you should say "neither thank you, I'd rather go to dinner and a movie with my sweetheart."

If neither choice will leave you in a desirable state (based on your criteria not theirs) then your first action should be to start looking for other options.  During this election there are many that are looking for other options though sadly they are looking for the same old solutions just with a different face.  That is how we got ourselves into this mess in the first place.

If you are afraid to cast your vote (speak your voice) for someone outside of the main two party system because you will just be throwing away your vote then haven't you in actuality done just that.   I thought that if ever there was a time for a third party candidate to rise up that this would be it.  So far the candidate alternatives have remained in the also ran category which is a shame because there is at least one of them that sounds much more intelligent and is running on a platform that far exceeds those of any I have heard so far, yet there are not enough voices willing to throw away their votes and provide at least the option of having his name on the ballot in all fifty states.

When all is said and done (and more will be said than will be done) I am sure that I will not have my choice be the one made by the majority but at least I know that I will have made my choice and I can live with knowing that.  So come on, throw away your vote, but at least do it in a way you can feel good about yourself for doing it.  And don't fall for the either/or trap.  We know better.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

Ramblings from 7 Sept. 2015

I haven't done any entries for awhile and I thought it high time I did but wanted to let you the reader know that this will be a venture into the realm of the wondering mind.  I don't know where it will take us or what all it will cover, and I will not guarantee that it will make any sense but like so many things out there you might find a nugget so enjoy.

I put a date in the title today even though I think all of the entries have had a date tied to them.  I find it very helpful to take a web entry and put it into context if there is a date associated with it.  For example, I was browsing around and happened onto a suggested search of "Pope Francis resigns" which I thought was as interesting as suggestion searches go, so I clicked and sure enough he was labeled as the second Pope in recent history to resign, how scandalous.

It turns out that the reference was from a super market tabloid that was created back in April of 2014.  I have a feeling that this is one of those events that did not transpire quite the way the author and editors expected.  Still, it does make for a clickable search item.  I wonder why it is still out there waiting to be looked at?

So just how lousy (or should I say lazy) are the portal web sites getting these days?  Yahoo was the standard but that was decades ago, now they are just a pretend portal site that just processes content from others and can't wait to shuffle you off to the highest bidder.  Come to think of it, they all seem headed that way.  I have pretty much given up on finding a usable news web site.  The fabrication is churned out so quickly without any forethought for intellect, leaving nothing but snippets of superlatives to generate fear and anxiety with which to incite the simpleton to an emotionally driven response that fuels consternation and frustration rather than pacify with perspective and relevance.  But alas, our world is run on this.  I wonder if people quit paying attention to calamity, would they just die out due to lack of attention?

Which leads me to the current state of the union, or at least the continuing saga of a nation bent on self obliteration through the continuing decline of it's choices for public servants and the republic for which they stand.  Sure some of us are laughing now but will we still be able to laugh a year from now?  Why do these elections always come down to either or choice and neither choice is a good one?  Mark my words, this election is headed down the same path as those we have had for the least few decades (if not century) by forcing us to choose between a couple of lousy candidates, none of which is an honest to goodness Leader.

Think for moment how you would define a good honest Leader.  I am not going to insert my definition but ask you to come up with your own.  What traits and characteristics would you choose?  What values would you look for?  What vision charts their course and is it one that you truly would follow?  Is this a Leader that actually leads and that the nations multitude willingly follow?  Are the purposes of this Leader just and true?  Is this Leader truly serving others or merely serving themselves?

Then honestly ask yourself, are any of the candidates today, current or hopeful, able to fit your definition of a Leader in all respects and in all ways?

I am still looking.

But in the mean time I will continue to look on with laughter since it is the only real way to look at the absurd (there is plenty to choose from).  Our time certainly isn't the first and probably won't be the last (a little history can go a long way in adding perspective to the current chaos).  The person who can keep themselves well grounded is the one that will be able to laugh the loudest when the emperor parades past the throngs with no clothes on, but as I recall it was a child that noticed it first and was not afraid to respond appropriately.  Perhaps we should be as little children during this election season.  It seems to me we have been treated as children long enough.  In fact, why do we allow people like this to rule over us?  I think we are more than capable of ruling over ourselves.  That is if we haven't forgotten how.

More to follow I'm sure, but for now...
This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

Humorous comments on government...

Someone sent this to me some years ago and as I read it again now I still find it all to relevant to our times of today.  I hope you enjoy it as I do.

1. In my many years I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a Congress. -- John Adams

2. If you don't read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. -- Mark Twain

3. Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But then I repeat myself. -- Mark Twain

4. I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to
lift himself up by the handle. -- Winston Churchill

5. A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul. -- George Bernard Shaw

6. A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt he proposes to pay off with your money. -- G. Gordon Liddy

7. Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner. -- James Bovard

8. Foreign aid might be defined as a transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries. -- Douglas Casey

9. Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. -- P.J. O'Rourke

10. Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. -- Frederic Bastiat

11. Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it. -- Ronald Reagan

12. I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts. -- Will Rogers

13. If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it's free. -- P.J. O'Rourke

14. In general, the art of government consists of taking as much money as possible from one party of the citizens to give to the other. -- Voltaire

15. Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you. --
Pericles (430 B.C.)

16. No man's life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session. -- Mark Twain

17. Talk is cheap... except when Congress does it. -- Anonymous

18. The government is like a baby's alimentary canal, with a happy appetite at one end and no responsibility at the other. -- Ronald Reagan

19. The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of misery. -- Winston Churchill

20. The only difference between a tax man and a taxidermist is that the taxidermist leaves the skin. -- Mark Twain

21. The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools. -- Herbert Spencer

22. There is no distinctly native American criminal class... save Congress. -- Mark Twain

23. A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have. -- Gerald Ford

Some things really haven't changed much over the years have they.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farrwest.

It's all in the game.

I have finally gotten past my emotional frustrations and attachments to this year’s political shenanigans. My hopes have been dashed and disappointments have weighed heavy but are starting to fade. Those of you who were pulling for Obama 4 years ago know what I am talking about. All that talk of hope and change we have been fed turns out to be nothing more than the same old smoke and mirrors we have seen over and over again for years and years. 2012 is shaping up to be nothing less…or more for that matter.

The Republicans have assembled the same old mix of challengers (as is usually produced by the challengers), none of which can deliver the whole package that everyone would love to see. All have some fine qualities and bring some valid ideas to the table but they all come up short in other areas leaving much to be desired. It would be nice to have the ability to create a composite candidate that represented the best of all the rest. I am certain there are those that have tried to pull this off by presenting themselves as such but because it was not the person they really were they quickly faded out in superficiality. Looking for the candidates that stand on their own character without pandering to the polls and swaying their positions based on the desire of their financial supporters, is like searching for a soda that doesn’t use high fructose corn syrup. The cost of searching, finding and obtaining just doesn’t seem worth the effort.

The other thing that continues to amaze me in these races is the ability to call the game early. How many of you have gone to a basketball game and with the jump ball to start the game the announcer comes on and says first one to score a basket wins? Or who has tuned into the Boston Marathon just to see the start of the race and see who makes it to the end of the block first figuring surely they have it all sown up?

Surprise, this one is going past the first point scored but in my opinion, big fat hairy deal. The game will still be called before half time. A few states will get their 15 minutes of fame and then fade into obscurity with 38 of the other states that don’t garner a passing fancy. Nothing meaningful is coming of it and sadly doesn’t seem to matter. The talking points are the same old rhetoric and the solutions, or rather the appearance of solutions, are the same as well. I am getting tired of it all and have started to tune out which I am sensing is the same for many of the others out there. Besides, there is a football game coming up.

Some points to be made out of all this. Like a marathon race or a NASCAR race all the camera time and attention is given to those in front. If you are not in front then your only chance of catching some attention is when the guys in front come around to pass you or you are involved in a horrible crash and then you get the same amount of attention that is given to all wrecks (woo, glad that wasn’t me, check out the replay, alright commercial, time for a potty break). You might have some good ideas Rick and Ron but you are way behind at the moment and that means you will have to quadruple your efforts just to catch back up to the leaders and be considered as a candidate at this point. Most do not have the energy or stamina to accomplish this as you can see by the number of candidates that have dropped out already. Some never even made it to Iowa. Some are too dumb to realize just what it takes to create inertia.

The sad thing is the media in general and the public at large generates this inability to focus on anything beyond A vs. B. The reality of the matter is that the average person out there is way more interested in choices C,D,E,F,G,H… and has been for quite some time. Look at the channels on cable and the fact that there are more viewers collectively following them than the big three networks. The internet is full of niche players that cater to the interest of individuals. Their audience isn’t meant to be everyone, it is only meant to be those who enjoy a like view. Until the mainstream realizes this and figures out a way to serve the many individuals, we will remain stuck with the bland clichés that sway many but serve no one.

So why is the media so quick to focus on just this or that? I am guessing that cost might be one thing since it cost money to cover everything and they don’t think they can generate enough interest to justify worthwhile coverage of back of the pack.

Also, they have a distinct bias (no matter what they claim or choose to believe). Owners and operators of the media have pushed their points of view since their respective mediums were first invented. Don’t expect anything different at this point in the game. They all do. And we tend to tune into those that most closely align with our points of view or at least give us the most entertaining stirring of emotions.

The media also has the self perception of (and reality to some extend) of being influence peddlers. In other words, they say stuff, people listen and they think and feel and do based on what they are told. This is called power and the media likes to use this power to persuade their audiences in the direction they would like them to go. Sadly, reality suggests that it works. Therefore they frame the debates and topics of discussion only upon those areas they deem serving their purpose. “But Ed, I have seen polls that state that America is interested in this or that, and that our most pressing problems are this or that. How can you say the media is driving the agenda when they are just reporting what the polls show America is wanting?” Take any news story that you are familiar with and have some real knowledge about and then look at how it is covered and not just by one source but by several. Then tell me those slight differences in wording, sentence structure and turning of a phrase don’t hint at bias. Even the headline that tops many articles gives clues to the desired reader’s response. Some headlines are completely out of sync with the article, and are totally misleading but then there are many that don’t read beyond the headline.

Only two areas escape this treatment, one being the generic story report that is copied and pasted as is into several outlets (look at Google news feeds and read a story covered by many sources and you will notice that the articles referenced are all exactly the same, word for word), while the other is the only slightly interesting local interest story that is churned out by the local reporter because ‘we have to have so much of this kind of thing in our paper and I was the one that got stuck with it’ piece. The really juicy stuff, the stuff that gets you noticed, praised and awarded, requires an injection of something more. You are writing to please your audience, and your audience is always prioritized by the desires of the boss and owner coming first, the writer coming next, and the reader/viewer in the end. Just be aware of this next time you feel yourself jumping on the bandwagon. It might be time to take a break from it all, change channel or pick up a good book.

The next point I still find amusing is that the challengers may load the gate with a dozen horses for the race and quickly boil things down to one prime challenger but the incumbent party is pretty much stuck with no choice. They have to dance with their leftover. Oh sure, they might pretend at some point to offer up another choice or two but that would be like admitting making a mistake and that won’t do for the guys on top so they must continue to show (and sometimes “show” is all it is) support for their candidate. Mediocrity thrives on just this kind of practice. Kinda sad really.

Do you realize that there are probably another half dozen parties out there besides the Republicans and Democrats and we seldom if ever hear about any of them? They don’t even make first cut and because someone is deciding that there is no chance or probability for them to win, we lose the opportunity to choose for ourselves and learn of them and from them and sure enough their probability of winning becomes nil. A self fulfilling prophecy?

Last point of things to notice this go around is that everyone loves a bandwagon. There is nothing more fun that to jump on a bandwagon, but you have to be very careful and choose the right bandwagon to jump on. If you choose the wrong bandwagon you might have to explain yourself or worse yet jump off one bandwagon and quickly jump on another. You can’t be “seen” as having picked the wrong bandwagon; it could harm a guy’s reputation. Rush has built his reputation around the fact that “I told you so”. He has had to be extra careful with his wording so that he will have just the right sound bites to fall back on when he needs help convincing you that he was right all along. And of course the Donald can do no wrong (just don’t look at his record too closely) so he is really going out on a limb this early in the race by declaring his support of Romney.

But it is all part of the fun of the game we call American politics and if you have gone through more than one race with an active interest or seen a couple of decades of elections come and go you will start to see that this really is a silly season. It is sad that we have to take any of it seriously because it is all so laughably absurd but there are serious outcomes and gravely serious consequences, and that forces us to participate. Once again I find myself wishing it didn’t really mean so much and because it does mean so much I am wishing we had better choices.

I wonder if we really do get what we deserve. That’s a scary thought.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Perry started down the right path

It may be a little bit after the fact but I wanted to see if there was going to be any additional points to the storied headlines from the Republican debate the other night other than the much maligned Rick Perry's forgetfulness. The real story was not his forgetting the third target of his smaller government plan but that no one jumped on the band wagon.

Here was a real opportunity to make real cost cutting efforts a meaningful part of the debate and start identifying Federal programs and agencies that should no longer exist (as if some of them ever should have in the first place). What would have been much more exciting for this political race and for America is if a new competition would have started that night to see who would produce the most aggressive proposal for real government reduction. The starting bid of three programs was not even bid up to four.

There are far more possibilities than those offered. The National Endowment for the Arts, Housing and Urban Development, Education, Energy, Environmental and that is just to name a very few of the big well known areas. There are dozens more of the lesser known that could come off the top that very few have even heard of.

In addition to the outright elimination of some programs, severe cuts to others would help force them to focus on core functions and objectives that serve the purpose for which they were established. As budgets got bigger, the scope of many agencies grew far beyond their original designs as they became an obstacle and stumbling block to the very public they were designed to serve.

Of course this was promoted heavily by those in Congress that felt they had to pass a new law for every whiny complaint that past through their door. Thanks also to every whiner that brought it too them thinking that government is the solution to all our problems. And a special mention to those that execute said laws and regulations and using their own interpretations to enhance what they feel those requirements were really meant to be.

And because every one of those government programs and agencies support a "someone" somehow, there will always be opposition to turning them off. Any of them.

This is a vicious cycle we have put ourselves in and when only one in ten candidates is even willing to 'talk the talk' you know the odds of real fiscal reform (where someone will 'walk the walk') are not in the cards this go around. Don't be fooled by the sound bites and photo ops but instead look for those that will let actions speak louder than words. I'm still looking, are you?

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Thomas Paine had common sense

I came across this quote today and knew I just had to share it.

Public money ought to be touched with the most scrupulous conscientiousness of honor. It is not the produce of riches only, but of the hard earnings of labor and poverty. It is drawn even from the bitterness of want and misery. Not a beggar passes, or perishes in the streets, whose mite is not in that mass.

-- Thomas Paine


Did this man know what he was talking about or what? If ever there was a time when this truth needed to be known by it's people it is now.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

The balanced budget amendment is hooey

With the latest financial crisis in America ever present in the minds of some and totally ignored by others (and sadly those that should be paying attention) new talk of a balanced budget amendment is raising it's head yet again. This is total political hype and haymaking and belongs in the area of things to be laughed at and made fun of and here is why. A balanced budget amendment like term limits and debt ceiling limits is a sign of weakness in the individuals that wish to have them. They are also not realistic solutions to very real problems.

Let me explain. Say you had a weight problem and were trying to get your weight back under control but your will power, resolve, and commitment to diet and exercise were just too great for you to handle. What do you do? Well the first thing I would do is pass a law that would not allow my bathroom scale to go over 200 lbs. I know for a guy my size that that is still considered overweight but really 200 lbs. is only a little overweight and wouldn't put me in the category of obese.

Of course the law of gravity (which wasn't written by me and for some reason can't be vetoed by me) is conspiring against my newly written law. But wait, there is a solution, I will buy a new scale for my bathroom, one that only goes to 200 lbs. In fact let's pass another law that says that no one can manufacture or purchase or own any bathroom scales that allow readings greater than 200. Just think of the spurt to the economy we will have from everyone having to replace all those old scales. And this rule applies to everyone equally because we care enough about you that we don't want anyone to weigh more than 200 lbs.

Oh but wait, what about the lineman who play for the Packers? Sports fans are not going to be please when they open their stat sheets only to find that their team is so evenly matched up with the opposing team with every player on the offensive and defensive line at an average weight of 200 lbs. Perhaps we should create an exemption for locker rooms. But then what should the new limit be for locker rooms? And should that be all sport locker rooms or just those of football players? Would the local fitness gym count?

And what about size? Should a 7 foot person be held to the same 200 lbs. limit, and should there be a lower limit for people under 5 feet tall? What if someone bought a metric scale, would a 200 kilogram limit apply?

I could go on and on but you quickly see how silly this stuff can get and this really is how some of our laws get created, especially the ones that shouldn't be laws in the first place as the bathroom scale represents. It is not in the charter people, it does not belong.

As I have stated before many of our laws are created to prevent you from doing or having something that I don't want you to have or do. Term limits where created as a way to remove a candidate that someone else didn't agree with but didn't have enough influence to remove with a legitimate alternative. You would think that common sense would prevail from the majority but as is too often the case common sense is not that common. How else do you explain the reelection time after time of (insert name here but contain yourself to the top 20 that come to mind)? Of course you have to think that if the people continue to put (insert name) back in office then they fully deserve what they get. And if the people of (insert state) wish to be represented by (insert name) then that is their right and I as a member of (insert other state) should have no say in it other than to make sure I am represented by someone who better expresses my viewpoint than (insert name).

Well that is all fine and dandy for the actions of others but what about for yourself? The key words is action and for self. When it comes to being a grown up and an individual we somewhere along the way begin to take responsibility for our own actions, which includes the outcome or consequences of those actions. Some of those consequences are automatic and consistent. If I jump up in the air, I will return to earth (there is that law of gravity again). There are certain rules we all must abide whether we know them or not. We can not impose our will over them just by saying they are not so. And if we say that we weigh 200 lbs. when we do not that is called a lie or at the very least a deception meant for others but mostly for self.

So if it is not a law or should not be then what is it? A GOAL. We can have a goal to have a balanced budget. The proposed law is an attempt to force an action to obtain the goal but it is a forced action and goal both of which are poorly defined, stated and acted upon. The debt ceiling was made into law in an effort to control an out of control government. It is not effective in that it has not made any headway in that regard. Because of it's failure to constrain the government fiscally it has been rewritten constantly to change the total debt limit more times than the number of years it has been in existence. It is like passing a law that says I can not weigh more than 200 only to rewrite it the next day at 201 and the next day at 202 and the next day at 203 and so on and so on and so on.

The other factor that comes into play with these types of legislation is the exemptions. They totally negate the effect you were after by introducing the loopholes by which you can ignore your own rules. We will have a balanced budget every year except when we can't, like during times of war or times of peace or times of famine or times of recession or times of emergency such as tsunamis or floods or hurricanes or tornadoes or earthquakes or depressions or election years or any time one of our neighbors has one of these problems. Oh yeah, and I will never eat chocolate again, unless I have a craving for some that can only be resolved by the ingesting of some form of chocolate.

Getting the idea.

We are the ones that are responsible for achieving our own goals, and we are the ones responsible for defining what those goals are and what rules we will give ourselves to obtain those goals. We then measure our success by how well we achieve our goals or how well we are progressing towards achieving them.

Our elected representatives are put in those positions to fulfill the will of the people. How successful they are is measured by how well they fulfill the will of the people they represent. If the people wish for a balanced budget, a debt ceiling, or a term limit, they do not need a special law enacted. They must take the action to find and elect a representative that will work on their behalf to reach these goals. They must then communicate their desires (goals) and monitor the progress of their representative to see that they are still their representative. If they really wanted a balanced budget then they would pass a balanced budget and with integrity only pass legislation that supported fiscal responsibility.

If we really wanted a balanced budget we also would be willing to accept nothing less. This means not accepting the handouts and entitlement programs that have been used by politicians for years to buy your votes and influence our support.

Just as we know what actions we must take to obtain a healthy weight, politicians know what actions they must take to obtain a healthy fiscal position with which to maintain a strong nation. If they don't, they don't belong there. If they know what they should do but they prefer not to act for their own reasons then they don't belong there. If they are not willing to act towards reaching our goals, simply put, they do not belong there.

If we are not willing to act to obtain our goals then we should not be surprised in the least when our goals are not met. All worthy goals take effort especially if you desire a worthy outcome. And you don't have to have a law written to make it happen. Just do it.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

I'm Back

Hello everyone. I'm afraid I've been a little busy lately, and more than a little distracted, but I have returned to share thoughts and insights but probably just to rant and vent.

In fact I have been so upset and angered by this countries lack of discipline, integrity, and sensibility while being driven by an overwhelming self-centered selfishness and an overpowering level of stupidity that my emotions got caught up in it all and I couldn't quite bring myself to compose from a reasonable centered me so I gave it up for awhile.

Anyone that has been watching the news for awhile will have noticed the insanity that has laid claim to the world around us and often makes it tempting to retreat into hibernation or at the very least begin practicing the life of a hermit.

But alas I am too far entrenched in day to day living to commit that form of social suicide. And neither should you if you are experiencing the same level of frustration of that external world that tries so hard to dominate our lives. It is at this point that we must stand and say "nuts to you" and move on with what we do, and that is to live the good life and fight the good fight. To accept anything less is to deny our true inheritance.

So what was the trigger that brings me back around. A little news article on the radio this morning that reported President Obama praising someone other than himself, a republican no less that goes by the name of Mitch McConnell. You have got to know that you are way off base when no less than Obama and Harry Reid are calling your ideas a 'serious proposal'.

So what is this 'serious proposal'? How about letting the President raise the national debt ceiling without GOP support. That's right, the Senate minority leader is suggesting that Congress forgo its duties and responsibilities and hand the President the last keys to national destruction. I don't know why they would bother since all three branches seem to be working in a concerted effort to accomplish the same willful degradation of the remnants of a once upon a time fine upstanding and well respected country.

If you understand the debt crisis at all, or even just a little you are shaking in your boots right now along with the rest of us, but it is not the core of the problem. It is not even center stage of our drama or worse yet in the eyes of the people that matter most, the citizens of this nation. It is also just one symptom of a long list of symptoms plaguing our country right now and its future is hanging in the balance.

Someone from the White House said "never let a good crisis go to waste" but the scary truth that walks hand in hand with that is 'if you don't have a crisis now, make one'. I don't know how much of what is happening is fabrication and deliberate manipulation but I have seen enough to make me think that there is a definite plan being played out and there are some who think they will gain power by allowing events to unfold the way they have. Over the past several years (and decades and beyond) these types of events have led those in power to excuse themselves in taking action that has undermined our freedoms and our liberties. And for all intense and purposes it is happening again. Just as we now joke at the cliche of 'do it for the children' (although I still hear that one used time and again) we are not laughing at the effects it has had on our lives. Last time we were all too willing to do 'whatever it takes' to maintain our homeland security. This time we will do 'whatever it takes' to maintain our economic security. And all the while we have willingly done 'whatever it takes', we have done so without really realizing what was taken. The physical and economic security that was once in our hands as been placed in the hands of another, and now we have neither.

Where is that country that was so highly praised for freedom and liberty and was hailed as a land of opportunity and righteousness? Where is that people that stood proudly for one nation under God and valued it so highly that many would willingly give their lives in defending it? Where are the voices of reason in the tumultuous din of stupidity?

It is not all gone...yet. It is not all forgotten...yet. Fear not to add your voice to reason. If it sounds like stupid and feels like stupid, please don't be afraid to say so. When stupid looks itself in the mirror, truth is revealed and reason can stand. It is time to let laughter and ridicule drive stupidity back into the long forgotten shadows from whence it came.

History is replete with examples where stupidity runs rampant, but it only last for awhile. For those of us looking for the better way, having lived it and knowing what it is, there is still a light of hope that all is not lost. There is still a chance for the return of sanity. And although I am predicting that there is the potential for some serious hard times ahead, both economically, politically and socially, there is still an opportunity for much good to come from all this. That is what I continue to look for, hope for and pray for. I hope that you will be doing the same.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Weeds, weeds, weeds. They are everywhere.

I was just out mowing the lawn today and upon completion picked up the bottle of a special weed killer to spray down some particularly difficult weeds.

Now I have known weeds in my life of taking care of yards. My last house was a corner lot that I am convinced managed to grow every type of weed known to mankind. It was a magnet and with each new wind storm a new crop would emerge for which I would ask myself "what is that?" I am not known for my gardening and yard professorship and am still in the learning mode when it comes to identifying which grass is actually the grass that is supposed to be called grass when referring to ones lawn and yard.

I kind of got this idea I took from some yards I've seen that if it is green and you mow it down every now and again that it stills makes for a pretty pleasant yard, but unfortunately friends, family, and spouse have a somewhat different opinion. Also, sadly the last city I lived in had something to say about agricultural creativity. For some reason yards are about something more than just the color green.

Anyway, with all the various weeds that came along (and it seemed as if there was crop rotation with different varieties visiting every third or fourth year) I found that Weed B Gone seemed to take care of everything I saw pretty well. I could mix it and apply it as needed and where needed and it worked out pretty good. It was also much cheaper than having those lawn guys come every few weeks, tell you they sprayed something or other, stick a sign in your yard and charge you a pretty penny each and every time. I figured for the price of one treatment I could do it myself for the whole season and for many years that is exactly what happened.

Well we changed houses. Didn't learn my lesson about corner lots and got another one. The yard was in bad shape when we got here thanks to neglect and a house that sat empty for awhile before we bought it and moved in. Also it was winter and the yard was snow covered so we didn't really know what shape the yard was in, but it was a fairly new house so how bad could it be?

Bad...at least from my wife's point of view. She has used the chem crap people before and ordered up a helping. I think they delivered in a rain storm which washed it all away and doesn't help a thing but they just want to get paid for their delivery and be on their way. After the second helping, which still didn't look as if it was doing any good I convinced my wife that I would take on the job myself. She was worried about this since she knows all too well my less than stellar enthusiasm for lawn care, but even she would have to admit that I have put forth a grand effort in holding up my part of the bargain.

Of course it isn't just mowing...it is trimming, and weed eating, and pruning, and planting, and edging, and weeding some more. This is one of those things in life that you will never reach the end of. Oh you might get to a point where you don't have something immediately pending but add a couple of days and a new task list will develop.

So this year our corner lot that came with secondary water has developed a new infestation of weed that is more obnoxious than any I have encountered in the past. I have fought off morning glory easier than this stuff. And what is worse, I don't even have a name for it.

My wife took a sample down to the local nursery and asked what was needed to get rid of it for which they gave it a name (I can't remember what the name is so don't bother asking) and told her it was really nasty stuff. The best medicine for it was this (insert small white bottle with scientific looking label) that would take care of things with three to four does applied diligently every three weeks.

The label said I could apply about an ounce and a half to every acre or so I think. I tried hard to calculate what that worked out to in equivalent terms for my hand pump sprayer. We where warned to not get to anxious and over apply as it would kill off the grass as well. It is a good thing that we did get to mix it with water though because at $30 an 8 ounce bottle it wasn't going to go very far. Thankfully we only had two patches in the lawn that really had any breakout and mindful of the warning I have tried not to overdo things.

I applied the fourth dose today and I can see evidence that it is working somewhat though I still see signs that it has not gone away completely. I mean this weed is nasty. The roots go deep and the tops run long and intermingle well with the grasses so that even when mowing they stay down and are seldom hit by the twirling blades. I learned quickly to rake the area and bring the weed up to the surface before applying the spray. That seems to have helped but what a pain.

If this doesn't work the next course of action will be to pull each weed individually by hand which will probably further destroy the remaining grass meaning a replanting will be in order and even then I feel there is no guarantee that it won't come back again. This is kind of frustrating but it is what we do when faced with such situations. We fight back as best we can not willing to give any ground to any weed that would destroy our designs for our yard.

At times the weeds seem to want it more. They live on little to no water, they don't require fertilizer, they are overwhelmingly good at propagation, and they resist most all efforts to eradicate them. Why can't grass, and flowers and food bearing plants and trees take a lesson and flourish with as much tenacity as weeds? Why can't we?

I am sure there are some life lessons in there somewhere and because I keep missing them I will continue to have weeds in my life. I did make the analogous connection between weeds in our lives and the crop of bad politicians. You can't just ignore them because they will bring friends and multiply and never be satisfied with the little patch of ground you give them, they will continue to expand until they have consumed all that you have if you let them. It is a never ending job of monitoring and eradicating if you are to keep them out of your life. It requires an eternal vigilance, and if you slip for a time and let them make a foothold then the effort to remove them is greater and sometimes the cost of the medicine is also greater. It may make you question if it is worth it and the only answer to that is, if you want your yard to be the way you want it then you must pay the price.

May the weeds in your life be manageable and may you find that having your yard the way you want it always to be worth the price.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

The automakers dilemma

I have been thinking a little bit about the auto industry lately and the mess they have made for themselves. I can't say that I am surprised by a lot of this. I am very disappointed however.

I am a car nut, an enthusiast even and for the car industry to turn to the very establishment that helped put them in this predicament is truly a situation that will create many a business school doctorate thesis for years to come. What possible good can come from this?

I could be saying I told you so, but I had a hard time finding anyone to tell. No one was listening. The American car makers have had major problems for several decades now, not just the last couple of quarters. They have been given their wake up calls on more than one occasion.

Sure some within the industry heard and heeded the call and some were able to come up with some really good and compelling products. Strides were made in quality improvement but not across the board and not enough to convince consumers that they had caught up with or passed the competition. There were glimmers of hope interspersed with packets of ‘more of the same’.

I feel sorry for anyone that has to turn to the government for a handout or subsidy. Sad to say we all are in that boat now and there doesn’t seem to be any turning back. As those who have had their hands outstretched for a gimme have recently found out, these government handouts come with strings attached. Some are o.k. with that while others prefer their independence. Some are beginning to have regrets.

So what do I make of the current state of affairs for the three? First Chrysler, which lost its way once and found it only to lose it, again, is perhaps in the weakest position of all. It is not currently being run by car guys though it seems to have many car guys within its workings. The shotgun wedding to Fiat seems inevitable if those holding the shotguns have their way, but I think it would be a mistake. Chrysler would do better to maintain its independence and build from its strengths. In order to do that it would need capital, true business management, and leadership with vision. These three components it lacks and therefore I see Chrysler fading away into oblivion even if a merger with Fiat is accomplished.

Second is General Motors, a company that is too big to know which way it is headed and too big to change the direction it is headed even if it wanted to. GM is the prime example of why mergers and acquisitions do not always work in the auto industry. Companies are created for a variety of reason but they all tend to try and differentiate themselves somehow, in other words, not all hamburger joints are McDonalds. Each company in order to do business will come up with its own solution to a consumer need and present it to the buying public. If successful it thrives but if not it goes back to the drawing board or goes away. Some companies will have a few outstanding ideas but will be lacking the rest of the components such as marketing, production, administration and such that make up a well rounded business. These are the companies that become prime targets for a takeover, not to obtain the company but to obtain the patents on the great ideas and incorporate them into your own product line. Many a merger has been done to obtain legal rights rather than finding synergies.

The problem in a merger comes when you try to combine two different cultures, as eventually they will also merge and become one and the same. As this happens, the setting that was the perfect ground to cultivate that great idea slowly fades into the mother company, the same company that was unable to create the idea in the first place and had to buy the other company to acquire. This is very evident in the GM of the 80’s when you the term ‘cookie cutter car’ was coined to describe the fact that all too many cars looked and acted exactly the same. The fact was they were exactly the same with exception of the name badgeing and a few accent trim pieces. You could find the same vehicle at Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, Oldsmobile, and on occasion Cadillac. Take a look at the pickup offerings from Chevrolet and GMC to see the most obvious example of sameness.

So what does this mean exactly? It means that the accountants and management took control of decision making for future product and decided that it would be less expensive and more profitable to develop one car and put several different labels on it thereby getting two (or three or four) items for the price of one. Sounds good on paper right? It doesn’t work out that way and here is why. Instead of developing and providing to the consumer two (or three or four) solutions to their needs, you have presented one solution and just changed the packaging. This is not an alternative solution to their needs; therefore competition can come in and offer a true difference. Consumers eventually will become savvy enough to know that when they are comparing solutions, they need only look at one of GMs offerings (rather than each one individually) and compare it to what the rest have to offer. And they wonder why their market share has dropped off.

GM has already killed off some of its brands, Oldsmobile is no longer for example. Is it missed, yes and no. If Oldsmobile were still here today wouldn’t it look just like Chevrolet, Pontiac, and Buick? Other than the slight visual clues for demographics they are one and the same. If they close Pontiac or Buick will they really be giving up that much? When Chrysler shut down the Plymouth name was there really much of an impact? They all have histories and we have fond memories of special cars from the past but was there any guarantee of recreating the magic of those one or two items?

So what is GM proposing to do to salvage itself but cut off some of the acquisition lines that gave it some distinction, namely Saturn, Hummer, Saab. Rather than working to make these somewhat independent lines profitable (and not being an insider it is hard to tell if they were or were not profitable) they have decide to cut them loose. This will create a very shallow corporation with dwindling product line with which to compete going forward. And as the product line going forward will now be determined by divine government intervention which will make decision not based on sound business doctrine but by political correctness, it is hard to say if there will even be a GM 5 to 10 years from now. Do you think the fun cars like Corvette and Camaro will even stand a chance of seeing a next generation under these conditions?

So that leaves us with Ford, the only hold out to the handout. I have to admire that and for that alone give them a standing ovation. I am sure there was a lot of pressure to bow. So Ford becomes the last hope for an American original. It is facing the same problems and constraints that the others are of underfunded pension plans, bureaucratic red tape, poor management, conformist and homogenized product line but it at least seems to be working from a plan and fighting for its continued independence. For this there is hope.

Fords product line is sufficiently diverse in the near term though they have the same problem of cross teaming between their Ford/Lincoln/Mercury lines. They have worldwide ties that should help enormously with product development if used prudently, the future 2011 Ford Fiesta is a prime example. (Ford if you are listening, please don’t over Americanize this car for our country. The European version sounds like the one I would want to own and drive.) The company still has a unique identity and some products still retain character such as the Mustang.

I do not understand the current design direction though. What is it with the 3 big flat chrome piece grill work? It is pathetic and reminiscent of the creased line loot the Art and Technology boys did that made me lose all interest in a Cadillac. I hope it is a short lived fade. They also added it to the full size vans as you can see. This is what being hit with an ugly stick does to you. Why do I always think of the station wagon in National Lampoons Vacation movie when I see these multi-level light treatments? Please run these design changes past someone that has taste before putting them out there?

Will Ford make it? It is hard to say for the same reasons it is hard to say if the other two will or not. The only reason Ford held out is that they had more cash on hand to allow them to stay in the game a little longer. How long it can last is anyone’s guess. I hope they all survive, because I don’t like to see anyone fail for one thing and because I think the open competition is good for the industry and the consumer. We all benefit from the raised bar.

The final note that should be made is that these are not the only American car makers today even if they get all the attention as if they were. Cars made in America include Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, Tesla and others. Are they entitled to equal consideration, or are some ‘animals more equal than others’ in this Obama Nation? Will the rules apply equally to all and apply to all equally? And will those rules be the rules of business with the freedom to succeed and the freedom to fail based on the dictates of the marketplace or will the rules change yet again to fuel the fancy of a few? Time will tell as we wait and watch.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Are their any grownups in Washington DC?

I am upset, disappointed, frustrated, infuriated, and all types of angry over what has happened in this country by our government and its people as it pertains to the economy.

I know I am not the only one.

The absurdity is overwhelming. I could not conceive of this as a reality scenario in even the most horrific Stephen King novel. I am completely dumbfounded and in a state of shock to think that there is even a remote possibility that the things I have seen and heard lately concerning our government and the economy are somehow based on anything approaching real life let alone the mind of a very imaginative fiction writer. How could any of this be real?

Hypocrisy is running rampant in Washington DC. The blame game is in full swing and no one but the other guy is to blame for the current mess we are in. I am amazed at the way Congress and the President are showing their disgust at employees of AIG receiving their agreed upon and contracted for bonuses totaling $165,000,000+ yet no one is saying much about the rest of the $2,000,000,000,000 of tax payer dollars that has been spent or promised for their solution to the economic downturn. (If you don’t understand the magnitude of those numbers and the actual difference between them, you are not alone, Congress does not either.)

They are now talking about taking legal action to ‘reclaim’ the bonuses if they can’t get them back voluntarily through shame or guilt. They are even talking about writing legislation to create new tax laws specifically aimed at taking back these peoples pay checks. Honestly, who is more guilty of a criminal act and gross negligence?

I am not defending the employees for their action as employees, their performances or whether they met the terms of their bonuses or not. I am not focusing on the management at AIG who felt it was necessary to make such agreements to obtain and retain the kind of employees they deemed fit for the positions they had. I am talking about our government’s actions to help. They stepped in and threw money at the problem without understanding the problem or asking questions or checking facts. They gave the money without any strings attached, (though that is hard to believe as anytime the money gives out anything there are strings attached). And now because a business that was labeled ‘too big to fail’ tries to continue to run business the way it always has (which is partly why it is in the shape it is) and we are supposed to be outraged and focus our attention on the employees because they got paid to do what they are paid to do? I don’t think so.

If Congress had let AIG fail, as businesses are supposed to be allowed to do when things don’t work out, the house of cards could have fallen, the damage would have been assessed and the remaining goods sold to valid companies at fire sale prices if need be, but then life and business goes on. AIG under bankruptcy law would have been able to renegotiate with court approval such things as employee agreements, pensions, and creditors payback. Congress could have let any of this happen and actually could have directed regulators to help facilitate the process in an orderly fashion but instead they chose to take the knee jerk reaction that threw money at the problem in the misguided notion that they had to do something. Hence they nationalized the bank (which is scandalous in any situation) without really taking anything over. They became the very noisy and boisterous silent partner. Unfortunately they did it using our tax payer money.

Though all of this is really sad and pathetic and Congress should voluntarily shut down and close shop from shame and embarrassment, the really scary thing that worries me the most is the way they are going after a target (the employees) with a vengeance that is unwarranted. If anything, Congress is every bit as culpable as the employees they are attacking and more so because this is only the tip of the giant iceberg they have created to take down the Titanic we fondly refer to as the USA.

My wish is that they would work at least as hard to renege the bailout/stimulus package they put in place, reclaim our hard earned tax dollars, both present and future, and cut their drag on my economy. Go ahead President Obama, cancel all the lousy financial actions Congress and you have passed in the past 6 months with the same vigor that you are trying to wipe out any actions taken by the previous administration. If you did that, I really would begin to have ‘hope’ again as that is a real ‘change’ I could believe in. Until then….

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 3.

In fact, that is just what happened. Everyone started leveraging everything and because everyone was doing it, it seemed to make it all right. We piled on debt to pay for everything to be able to live for today and it was all o.k. because once all our cards and accounts reached their max we could just consolidate everything into one big newly refinanced loan by tapping into the freshly created inflation generated equity that the investment in our homes had just produced out of thin air. Pretty neat eh?

This worked so well that we got used to it and came to expect that it would work every time. Jobs were consist enough that we could count on the income to always be there and so we went ahead and obligated ourselves to make consistent payments that matched those consistent paychecks. Most Americans had it worked out so well that everything that came in was exactly the same as everything that went out. It was a smooth running machine, until one day when the price of gas went up. Now instead of it costing $20 to fill the tank it cost $40 and you don’t have the other $20 in your pocket. Something has to go but everything you have is already spoken for. Witness the pin that popped the bubble.

So stupid people make stupid decisions, this is nothing new. It has happened before and it will happen again. The key point to take from all this is that we don’t make the innocent pay the price for the ignorance of others. That is where the second comparison has come into play. The knee-jerk reactions that followed the bad choices of others as happened following the first great depression should not be replayed this time around. Obama and Congress are launching on the biggest mistake in this nation’s history and it is not without forewarning. The “stimulus package” will seal the fate of this nation as a full blown socialist state with little hope of return. There are far too many critics that have been far too quiet concerning this matter. It is not because they have not spoken in the past or in the present, but the current mass media markets have decided not to listen. Make no mistake about it, voices are being suppressed. The America of our forefathers is in jeopardy of being no more, and for the sake of being politically correct we will squelch the voices of wisdom. We will label them crackpots or worse.

There are of course differences between now and then. FDR waited several years and I imagine went through quite a bit of debate before implementing the new deal. Obama and his congress have rushed the current new deal through in a matter of days. This surprises me especially when you compare it to the regular congressional budget that usually is past after the new fiscal year has begun, and sometimes months after. Why this rush? Banks closings are up but not anywhere near the level of the Great Depression. Unemployment is up, but also not anywhere near what it was in the Great Depression. 7.5% vs. 25+% do the math.

The economy was a hot button item during the election timeframe and usually is during campaigning. The Democrats and their media talked up how bad things were when in reality things were not really bad at all. This is not to say that there were not some bad areas and some people experiencing bad times. That has always been the case in our nation’s history. There are boom and bust cycles going on all over all the time, nothing new. But like so many political campaigns, you can’t convince others to vote for you unless you can convince them that the other guys are doing worse than you would. Standard fare, I mean I many times have you heard that the last few years under the Bush administration were the worst years ever in recorded history. Kind of sounds like the same thing Bush said about Clinton and Clinton said about the Bush before that. My question is why do we continue to believe it when the truth says otherwise, or at least is somewhere in between?

So the Democrats have convinced us all that the economy was falling apart and only they could make it work again. They said it so long that we and they started to believe it. Is this the case of a self fulfilling prophecy? Pretty soon people started making decisions based on this doomsday prophecy, confidence in the system was shaken and those decisions triggered other decisions which started us down the path of an economic slowdown.

If we can raise this slowdown to the level of a crisis, then we can implement all kinds of legislation without any questions or obstacles. What better way can you think of to get your policies in place before anyone has time to think twice? It has to be done now because it will be too late tomorrow, and beside we have to do something…don’t we? The knee-jerk caught a lame duck president with a first financial bailout and followed on to the new president with the stimulus package.

This isn’t the first real estate driven crisis, remember the 1980’s and the savings and loan problem. Remember how it wasn’t solved with a massive spending bill but a revamp of the banking industry that combined savings and loan institutions with bank bringing them under the FDIC insurance for depositor safety and then orderly liquidated bad real estate deals through the use of open market pricing? Why are we subsidizing the bad institutions this time and trying to keep them in business when we should be helping them liquidate in an orderly fashion? The FDIC could play the role of insurer as it is chartered to do and protect depositors money up to the agreed upon amounts, sell off the assets of the defunct business at market prices to willing participants and we could all get on with the business at hand.

Instead we are putting the patient on life-support, one that only prolongs the misery and the pain. Japan went through a period of denial with its real estate boom of the 80’s and they are still paying the price. Instead of clearing the books they finagled them through adjustable accounting. We are doing the same. Where oh where has wisdom gone in our elected officials?

And where has our wisdom gone? This article has taken a lot of thought and effort to write. As I have watched the proceedings take place in the news and the actions taken by our elected elite, I am both in awe and wonder. I am totally dumbfounded by what is taking place. It just doesn’t seem possible that this is actually happening in real life, and maybe when I get up tomorrow I can find that I just read it wrong. That was several days ago and I am still seeing the same thing, it is really happening. I can’t stop it, I am not an insider so I can’t profit from it, and I shudder to think what it will take to reverse it now that it is in place.

When reason fails with man, and the world begins to tumble, I guess the only thing left is the thing we have had all along. Turn to God. Pray and know that God lives. As the world tosses and turns and changes with the winds and tides; know that God is the same yesterday, today, and forever. Therein lays our strength, our guide, and our salvation. Ours need not be a fleeting moment in time if we are willing to look to our Father in Heaven with eternal eyes. My prayer for us all, leaders and citizen alike is that we have the wisdom and the courage to make the right choices and to stand for what is right.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Click here if you want to see the new Great Depression Part 1 or to go to Part 2.

Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 2.

So what did you want the government to do, nothing? Yes, as a matter of fact, that would have been the best course of action for it to take. If we really believe in free markets (a freedom principle) and the economics of supply and demand, then the role of government is too help protect consumers from fraud (a criminal act with criminal intent) and monopolies (manipulation of markets to gain control and prevent freedom within the market), and such acts for fairness sake, but not to dictate which businesses we can have and how we should run them or who we can and can’t deal with. It is when governments try to intervene on the belief that they can best determine how to ‘create’ fairness that we all lose.

This is called social engineering and it has never worked well if it has ever worked at all. In any instance I can think of, it comes down to taking away from one to give to another. It is providing subsidies for a favored group at the expense of a less favored group, and it is always the party in power that is making the decision of which group to favor. This is not equality this is theft, and it is the worst injustice of all. Two wrongs do not make a right. Just because your group or cause may be winning the ‘equality equation’ one minute is no guarantee that it will the next. Welcome to the roots of Socialism and Communism. Ayn Rand, F.A. Hayek, George Orwell, and many others have tried to warn and persuade against these evils.

So if the government would have done nothing, the market would have worked itself out and life would have gotten back to normal a lot sooner than it did. Remember the words about supply and demand. Basic economics says that when a seller and a buyer have the same price in mind, a transaction takes place. If there is a difference in the desired price each is willing to accept then no transaction takes place…that is until they come to an agreed price. Of course, if a seller’s price is less than what a buyer is willing to pay or if a buyer’s price is higher than the seller is expecting a transaction will also occur with a happier than expected outcome for one of the participants.

If prices rise too far, buyers quit buying or buy less than they normally would until either their situation changes or prices fall back to a level they are willing to accept. This is where the true power of the market and more importantly the people’s power lie…as consumers. If a consumer decides that the price is too high she can just turn away, and with the markets that America has developed, they can look elsewhere. We as consumers have the power of alternatives and options, another great benefit from having free markets…choice.

So what happens in a bankruptcy? The prices fall to clear inventory. How far the prices fall is determined by the market and the need to move that inventory to meet the demands of the defunct business. Again the market place determines a fair price by matching the seller with the buyer at a price both can live with. In the case of stocks, the price will fall to some level where a buyer will believe that he can find value in the purchase. Look at the recent Circuit City bankruptcy as an example. They have invited in the liquidators who will sale all remaining inventory (and then some) at liquidation prices. First they will move all prices back up to full retail and then start marking off a certain percentage to make the sale. A few weeks pass and they will raise the percentage off to sell a little more. A few more weeks and a few more percentages, until most all the inventory has been sold off by having a willing buyer and a willing seller at an agreed upon price. The good stuff will go first at the highest prices and the lesser stuff will go as their fair price is eventually reached. It is natural, and it is how real markets work.

So what can we compare this to today? There are two common elements that exist today that were common back then. First is an overinflated market full of speculators and hype that has easy access to excessive credit for an overleveraged play. If anybody could not see the comparison to Real Estate investing then you shouldn’t be allowed to vote because you just aren’t paying enough attention to the world around you.

Real estate has been a huge hit sense someone went to the trouble of trying to convince everyone that they should have some. A chicken in every pot, a car in every garage, and home ownership, the American dream, who could ask for anything more?

Real estate promised equity and wealth, and a place of status. It was incentivized and subsidized by tax breaks and government programs. Best of all you could finance 80%, then 90%, then 100% with no money down. They even had loans that would give you 120% of the homes “value”. At the pinnacle of it all you could even find loans where you never had to pay back the principle, just pay the interest and everything would be fine. After all the prices were going up and up and up and they aren’t building any more land you know.

Everywhere you turned there was a class or a course on how to buy real estate with no money down, or how to flip a home, or buy a foreclosure, or become a landlord. Real estate gurus came and went as fast as you could change the channel on the late night infomercials. All you had to do was take a look around and you could see someone that had made a mint in real estate, why even the Governor of California made his millions in real estate so why shouldn’t we.

And even if it wasn’t to make us rich by becoming the next Donald Trump we could at least be better off. We have always been told that owning your own home was a good and smart investment. Look at the equity your building. You have ownership of something and they can’t take that away from you. Why pay someone else when you can be paying yourself? (That is good advice when applied in a practical matter).

So the equity you built is caused by inflation and not by an increase in value, and owning your own home allows you to put holes in the walls where you want to and repaint any color you so choose without checking with a landlord first, and owning your own home means you can do with it whatever you want to as long as what you want to do is consistent with existing zoning laws and property covenants and building permits, and owning your home means no one can take that away from you unless you have a mortgage and miss a payment or run up against hard times and can’t pay your property taxes, but hey it is your home.

In the past, you could only borrow an amount that would have your monthly payment no greater than 25% of one wage earners income and that was probably take home pay at that. Recently it seems that you could qualify to finance an amount that would take 80% of your take home pay. (The remaining amount could pay for cable and you could feed yourself with food stamps).

Click here to see the new Great Depression Part 3 or here to go to Part 1.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Witness the birth of the new Great Depression Part 1.

There are certain stages in our nation’s history that we thought would never be repeated. In fact they should never be repeated. Those that have not learned the lessons from the past are doomed to repeat them. We have learned these lessons, or at the very least should have. For those that have not learned them, there are others that have if we will but listen. Sometimes it becomes a matter of knowing who to listen to. In this world of spin and revisionist historians, it is easy to become confused. Here then is my contribution to the economic world of wonder we are facing.

The current financial crisis we are facing has often been compared to the Great Depression. There may be some similarities and that is disturbing as this need never have happened, but with the passage of the “stimulus bill” it most certainly will turn into another great depression.

First a quick word about the economy and economic cycles. Booms and Busts. They have been with us since the beginning of commerce and will continue to be a major part of any world that consists of trade. The market psychology that comes with it is also nothing new. People get overly exuberant and overly pessimistic at the worst times and that drives the demand side of the supply vs. demand equation to unrealistic levels. Once it gets too far one way or the other, it usually returns to a more normal state but at a pace that catches most people unprepared. When this is done on a large scale it is called a bubble. It is called a bubble because prices grow rapidly and, much like a bubble, from the insertion of air…much of it hot. When a bubble can take no more air yet more is introduced, the bubble pops and everything comes tumbling back to normal waiting for someone to stick their ring in a can of solution, blow real hard and start to create the next new bubble.

We have all experienced bubbles before and sometimes not even realized it. The recent increase and then decrease in the price of oil and gasoline is a great example. The tech stock market that took dot.coms to the stratosphere and then tanked in 2000 is another. The bubble that is getting us today is housing. In order to put this into perspective and compare it to the Great Depression, let us go back to that time and see what was happening.

Most will say that the stock market crash of 1929 triggered the Great Depression while others are looking at other factors such as the governments reactions (actions taken after the fact) as the major cause of the Great Depression. From what I have seen and read, I tend to fall in the later camp.

The stock market crash of 1929 had several factors that came into play but one of the key elements was that fact that you could buy stocks on margin. In other words, you could use debt, or borrow 90% of the price of a stock to purchase it. This is known as using leverage in the investing world. It works great as long as prices are going up. It can kill you when prices go down. Here is how it works.

You buy $100 dollars in stock but you only have to come up with $10 and your broker came up with the other $90. The price of your stock goes to $110 and you sell it. You pay back the broker his $90 plus some interest for borrowing his money, say $1. That leaves you with the remaining $9 as profit and since you only put up $10 of your own money you just made a 90% return on your investment. Pretty sweet deal and way better than the piddley amount you would earn in interest from the bank.

The boom market in stocks that started in the mid 1920’s was making many people very rich, and just like the gold rush it attracted many newcomers, some that knew what they were doing and many that didn’t. It seemed that anybody could invest and make big money, and many did. And when you saw your neighbor making easy money it was natural for you to want to do the same. Pretty soon everyone was trying to jump on the band wagon and make their fortune. Eventually, prices rose to a point that was ridiculous and unsustainable and they started to decline.

When prices decline, those that have leveraged are the ones that are hurt. When the $100 stock goes to $90, and you bought it on margin, you still owe your broker $90. If you sell the stock now and pay off the broker, (and don’t forget you owe him $91 to cover the cost of borrowing) you are left with nothing. Well you don’t want that to happen so you hold on thinking this is a temporary down turn and prices will be heading up again very soon. After all you made this investment to become rich like your neighbor, and everybody is doing it. Pretty soon however the price is $80 and your broker gives you a call and says he needs some money to cover the shortfall. You don’t have any money because you spent your last $10 buying this stock that was going to make you rich. The broker sells your stock and you owe him the difference.

As the broker sells your stock it puts more pressure on the prices and they continue to go down creating a spiral effect. Individuals have to pull money from the bank to pay off their debts. If the stock they bought is used as collateral for other purchases and the value of that collateral declines the other loans are in danger of going into default. As the defaults start in one area they can quickly expand, moving from one area to another by hitting one account and then another. As people scrambled to cover their newly acquired debt and save their personal finances from collapsing, it began to impact other people and business portfolios. They in turn had to struggle to save their finances from collapsing. One person’s pain began to be felt by all.

Now remember that this was nothing new and in reality it was quite common for markets to experience booms and bust. In fact, some areas of some markets have had greater price movements both up and down. Investors have made their millions and lost everything on many occasions and in many different markets even before there was a stock market. You can find books that will describe other markets such as the great tulip market of the 1600’s that went through these outlandish pricing periods. In fact there have been many markets in our lifetime that have experienced extreme boom and bust conditions. Our awareness of them is only brought about by our personal participation or the participation of someone we know. The really big ones are only well known because they impacted a large percentage of the population. Where was the media when you lost all that money on your cabbage patch doll and beanie baby collection?

As a result of the magnitude of the stock market price decline, the impacts spilled out into all aspects of the economy from banks to business to government. The madness of men and markets drove a typical price correction into a recession of large magnitude and that should have been the end of it but then it turned into a depression as a result of the actions taken by the government to correct the problem.

Now before you get me wrong, note that they did do some things right. The margin rates were cut so that investors were no longer able to buy stocks with 10% down. The current rate is 50% which some might think is still high but 2 for 1 is a lot less than 10 for 1. They also strengthened the banking system and regulations for oversight and increased the use of insurance for depositors to restore faith in the banking system.

Unfortunately, the Great Depression also allowed the government to introduce the New Deal. This was one of those giant knee-jerk reactions from government to fix the wrongs of man. What it did was introduce many of the Socialist policies and programs that we face today. It also launched a large “stimulus” package that tried to spend our way back to prosperity. Many would say that it extended the length of the depression many years past its natural length. I would have to agree. Much of the spending went into make work projects where efficiencies and effectiveness were not considered let alone any outcomes beyond the creation of jobs as the objective. We also created the world’s largest legal Ponzi scheme ever known to man…Social Security.

This government driven economy is the very idea we used to find so abhorrent in communist nations and would speak openly against. We used to think that nationalizing any industry was something that only happened in backward third world countries and if anyone even suggested such a thing people would start looking for a hanging rope. Laissez faire has oft been the slogan of a free nation.

Click here to continue to the new Great Depression Pt. 2. or Part 3.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.

Is the Obama threat real?

I have written a few articles lately that have condemned the political candidates in this year’s elections. I have generally meant exactly what I have said about this being one very scary election with the threat of a bloodless take over by socialist and socialism that would shock anyone that has participated in the writing of the story that is America. From the founding fathers to the warriors and soldiers that stood up to dictators and communism, I think that there is a great disappointment over the fact that Obama was even allowed to make it this far and that the only answer put forth against is a McCain.

Have we forgotten the lesson of our past? Do we not recall what our forefathers worked so hard to establish? Did we even really know? Do we no appreciate what we have? I fear that we have no clue what we have done to ourselves.

In any case, I have heard rumor that the Obama campaign has enlisted the help of volunteers to search out blogs that speak poorly of their candidate and flood the comments with countering viewpoints. I have not seen any indications that that is the case. So in order to test this out I have added the above title in an effort to draw them in. No worries as this is still one of the least read blogs in blogosphere land but what the heck.

I do wish to understand what it is, or should I say how it is Obama supporters think. I know that there is the blind allegiance to party that can claim a large percentage of supporters. I know that there is the projection of a person’s personnel values onto the candidate’s platform whether true or not in an effort to believe that the candidate actually represents their views. Many turn a blind eye to anything that might cast the light of truth if it reveals their candidate for who they really are. It is easier to “hope” that things are different than to realize that reality falls far short of their ideals.

So why on earth would anyone be for Obama? I know he has used the traditional political illusions of being able to make everything better without actually offering an actual plan. Are you buying into them? Did you buy into the Clinton approach that everything wrong was someone else’s fault while taking credit for anything that went right even if was in spite of their actions? Is cause and effect that easy to manipulate? For some it must be.

So will anybody reading this respond? Is there really a program in the Obama camp that reads and responds to these blogs? If there are genuine Obama supporters out there that want to respond I will add any and all comments sent my way. That goes for McCain supporters also. Just keep the language clean. That is really the only thing I will edit on.

Maybe with a better understanding of what we are seeing out there and what we are wanting to see, we will be able to come up with better solutions to the common problems we all face and not have to rely so much on the windbags that continually sell us short.

This is Ed Nef with a view from the Farr West.